Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Visiting a 'sustainability lighthouse' factory

Earlier this year The Oilholic headed to Le Vaudreuil in Normandy, France, some 115 km northwest of Paris, to get up close to Schneider Electric's ongoing smart factories drive. 

Its plant in the French commune is one of 11 such sites around the world where digitalisation and automation are in full swing to improve throughput, and, of course, to demonstrate the efficacy of Schneider Electric's solutions to existing as well as potential customers. 

Essentially, the global energy management and automation vendor has converted a 50-year-old brownfield site - of around 14,000 square meters that produces its hardware - into a fully functional staging post for automation solutions banking on EcoStruxure - its IIoT solutions suite. 

Here is yours truly's feature for Forbes on the site visit and the company's motivation for the exercise that Le Vaudreuil is an integral part of. The said transformation was several years in the making.

Schneider Electric embarked on the journey in 2018, and now in 2025, a fully automated Le Vaudreuil is yielding some impressive results. Power consumption is down by 36% and CO2 emissions lower by over 80%. Furthermore, the delivery lead time has improved by 70%.

As the battle for a slice of the industrial automation market heats up, such sites will prove invaluable for the company as showcases for live action demonstrations if one may use the expression - something it happily flags. 

What's more, the drive has seen Schneider Electric bag accolades from the World Economic Forum (WEF) which has designated the Le Vaudreuil plant as a "sustainability lighthouse" - i.e. a leader in sustainable industrial processes. Six other such manufacturing sites owned and operated by the company have also bagged the WEF badge. 

Overall, this blogger was delighted to have gotten up close to view how AI, IIoT, predictive analytics, robotics, machine learning, and more, keep the factory of the future going. So, here's a big shout out to Schneider Electric's team at Le Vaudreuil who spared their time to show The Oilholic around, demonstrate the plant's kit and processes, answer queries and provide the necessary data for research purposes.

That's all for now folks, more musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Gaurav Sharma, energy analyst, Oilholics Synonymous (third from right in high visibility jacket) with the team at Schneider Electric's 'sustainability lighthouse' factory in Le Vaudreuil, Normandy, France © Nicole Love Lloyd / Schneider Electric, 2025Photo II: Gaurav Sharma outside Schneider Electric's Le Vaudreuil factory in Normandy, France.

Sunday, May 11, 2025

The scramble to lower oil price forecasts

The Oilholic has been on record noting there is little to be bullish about oil at this stage of the trading cycle. Recent events have not only proven this to be the case but amplified the prevailing bearish sentiment.

With OPEC+ determined to ramp up production despite tepid demand and US President Donald Trump's administration resuming nuclear talks with Iran carrying the possibility of a settlement - a bit of a mad scramble to lower oil price forecasts is taking place. 

Banks and brokerages are all lining up to lower their prior forecasts. Last week, Goldman Sachs told clients it now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and around $56 in 2026. Both projections are lower by $2 from their previous level. Goldman Sachs also cut its forecast for WTI crude by $3 per barrel to an average of $56 for the rest of 2025 and $52 in 2026. 

It is by no means alone. Morgan Stanley has also trimmed its oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year. It revised its Brent projection down to $62.50 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of 2025; a downward revision of $5 per barrel from the previous forecast.

Meanwhile, Barclays has cut its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 a barrel for 2026. ING cut its Brent forecast too for the remainder of 2025 down to $62 per barrel from $68.

Citi also cut its three-month price forecast for Brent down to $55 per barrel on Thursday, from a previous estimate of $60 per barrel. It has however maintained the $60 projection for its long-term forecast. And ANZ maintained its already low oil price target over the next three months of $55 per barrel but warned of risks "firmly skewed to the downside."

Away from banks and brokerages, the US Energy Information Administration - statistical arm of the Department of Energy - cut its average Brent oil spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short-term energy outlook published on May 6.

The EIA currently sees the Brent spot price averaging $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026. In its previous outlook published in April, it projected the Brent spot price to average $67.87 in 2025 and $61.48 in 2026.

Expect more downward revisions over the coming weeks unless mildly bullish sentiment returns via a combination of one or more of three developments: (1) US-Iran tensions revert to pre-talks level, (2) OPEC+ reverses course, and/or (3) an easing of US-China trade tiffs unfolds. 

Even in that eventuality, the uptick is likely to pull Brent up to around the $70 mark in the Oilholic's opinion, and well shy of the $80+ levels the bulls crave. Well that's all for now folks, more musings to follow over the course of the month. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018

Tuesday, April 08, 2025

Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs

Oil futures have taken a heavy pummelling in the wake of the so-called Trump Tariffs right down to four-year lows. That's after President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports to the US, and much higher rates of up to 50% against dozens of countries. 

With major manufacturing centers in Asia on the President's tariffs list published on April 2, both Brent and WTI front-month futures subsequently shed over $10 per barrel or 14% from the price they were trading at the day before the announcement.  

The extreme volatility has brought WTI down below $60 per barrel and Brent shy of $65. A modicum of market calm is unlikely in the short-term, more so as the President has vowed further tariffs against countries (e.g. China) who chose to retaliate. Indeed, there is relatively little to be bullish about oil at the moment. 

In fact, the Oilholic argues via an op-ed in Forbes that bearish sentiment was already entrenched in
crude markets heading in to the second quarter of 2025, before the President's move amplified it. 

So even when the tariff din subsides, it may be wise not to expect an overshoot past prices noted prior to Trump crude shock. (Here's more.)

Yours truly also offered his analysis on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, noting that the road ahead for crude markets will likely be very, very choppy thanks to uncertain demand in China, doubts over the performance of the global economy and lower levels of consumer confidence in key markets. The full interview (dubbed in Arabic) is available here

There's heavy uncertainty all around from the commodities market to equites, with real fears of an international trade war and a global recession. So, how much of a drag it turns out to be on near-term oil prices is anyone's guess. Oil futures will remain hostage to Trump's next move. 

Away from crude matters, the Oilholic also published his latest Energy Connects missive on the global digital economy being powered by natural gas for decades. Here's more, have a read on why all those hyperscale datacentres simply cant be powered by renewable energy alone for a good few decades if not more. 

Well that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV channel © Asharq Business, April 2025.

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Meeting French billionaire entrepreneur Mohed Altrad

Mohed Altrad (left), French entrepreneur and founder of multinational services and equipment firm Altrad Group, with Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, at Altrad Sparrows training centre in Tyrebagger, Scotland, UK. 
Earlier this month, the Oilholic headed some 550 miles north from London to Tyrebagger Hill, on the outskirts of the UK's energy capital Aberdeen, for a very special meeting with an extraordinary entrepreneur - none other than Scaffolding King Mohed Altrad. 

Yours truly's meeting with one of France's most famous and fascinating industry captains had the backdrop of a Liebherr BOS 2600 offshore pedestal crane capable of lifting 15,000 kg loads, at the Altrad Sparrows training centre. It happens to be one of the entrepreneur's many businesses, and one he acquired as recently as 2022. 

The serial entrepreneur happens to be aggressively expanding Altrad Group's already substantial presence in energy services across the sector's value chains and commissioned projects, from refineries to offshore wind farms, from marine to LNG. 

Read the Oilholic's latest Forbes exclusive for more on his business, its beginnings, and Altrad's inspiring journey here

His company's headline business is split 84% to 16% between services and equipment segments. 

In 2024, the business generated nearly €6 billion (£5.03 billion, $6.52 billion) in revenue. 

Interestingly, almost €1 billion of that was derived from services to the clean energy segments of nuclear, hydrogen and wind, Altrad said. 

The figure may well be taken as Altrad's statement of intent when it comes to supporting a sustainable future, and is expected to rise subject to business conditions, according to the man himself. 

While Altrad Group businesses are also branching out into consulting in their respective areas of expertise, there is very little appetite - as far as the boss is concerned - for branching out into core engineering aspects of energy projects. 

An expansion in the energy services though looks almost certain to continue, both through acquisitions and organically, Altrad told the Oilholic. That's asvthe segment undergoes consolidation in a fiercely competitive operating climate. Overall, a most remarkable encounter. 

That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma (right) with Mohed Altrad at Altrad Sparrows, in Aberdeen, Scotland, UK © TVP Studios / Altrad Sparrows, March 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma (right) and Mohed Altrad in a conversation in Aberdeen, Scotland, UK © Benjamin Romney, March 2025.

Friday, March 14, 2025

Media missives from CERAWeek 2025

With CERAWeek 2025 by S&P Global drawing to a close on March 14, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week out in Houston by having insightful 1-on-1 discussions, panel chats and wider interactions on the global energy mix and where it is heading to. 

All blog entries for CERAWeek may be found here. Yours truly also provided insight to Energy Connects and Forbes throughout the event as detailed below. 

First off, here are one's daily observations for Energy Connects on the first three days of the event:

  • US Energy Secretary and oil industry leaders call for a realistic approach to the energy transition, March 11, 2025.
  • Energy leaders call the US a prime investment market, March 12, 2025.
  • Leading cross-sector executives pledge to triple global nuclear capacity by 2030, March 13, 2025.
And secondly, here go all observations, interactions and interviews from CERAWeek for Forbes:
  • U.S. Energy Secretary Blasts Renewables, Vows To Support Oil And Gas, March 10, 2025.
  • Guyana’s Buoyant Oil Exports Find Eager Buyers In Europe, March 12, 2025.
  • Activist Investor Drives BP To Do ‘Fewer Things, With Higher Returns’, March 12, 2025.
  • Practical Decarbonization Solutions Must Be Nurtured, Says MHI Group’s Green Solutions CEO, March 13, 2025.
And that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at CERAWeek 2025 © Gaurav Sharma 2025.