In fact, the Brent front-month futures contract is back lurking around $100 mark on renewed fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
For now, many in the market are wondering just how much oil is indeed getting through the strait at the moment.
However, assessing that is proving pretty tricky. Data aggregators are reporting different numbers of ships now passing through the key maritime artery that Iran disrupted in the wake of the war, and continues to disrupt.
Versus a pre-war volume of 20 million barrels per day, down to near zero at the height of the war (in March and April) and back up in June during a short-lived ceasefire - latest empirical and anecdotal evidence from this blogger's sources puts the volume in the range of 5 to 9 million bpd.
This is hotly contested, as noted by Kpler, in a blog explaining why figures vary and why its range is 5 to 10 million bpd. Nuances in data gathering aside, vessels also "go dark" switching their trackers off, travel in the dark and in protected convoys near the Oman coastline.
And on September 2, Energy Secretary Chris Wright put the figure above 17 million bpd whilst talking to the media - the highest since the war began.
In other interviews, including one with Fox News, Wright defended US data quipping: "Why would we lie?"
That is a fair point, because if the statistics on volumes are fiddled - they will eventually be found out.
In the meantime, oil prices remain volatile contingent upon the news flow and will likely remain that way for now. Here is the Oilholic's latest Forbes post on the developments and more. Where its all going is anyone's guess.
Well that's all for the moment folks! Leaving you all with two photos of the Strait of Hormuz (above) taken by this blogger from the Omani coastline some 13 years ago. It was a tad calmer back then. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
