Showing posts with label OOTT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OOTT. Show all posts

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Mixing it up with energy startups at Norrsken

This week, the Oilholic attended the launch of Norrsken Foundation's annual selection list of the 100 most promising early-stage startups - the Norrsken 100 - in Barcelona, Spain at IMPACT/WEEK 2026. 

What's piqued this blogger's interest in the list is the rising prominence of energy startups on it. Of the 100 startups to have received the recognition, 26 happen to be energy upstarts. 

First a word on the list, the foundation curates it from nominations made by 80-odd partners including prominent global venture capital firms, NGOs, academics and industry professionals in the sphere. 

This year they received over 1,400 applications to be judged on the criteria of those attempting to solve "global challenges at scale" by outperforming legacy models that created them. "In our opinion, they shape what comes next and perhaps represent 100 ways to fix the future," said a spokesperson. 

In a rapidly electrifying, digitizing and automating world that is staring at an exponential growth in energy demand, it is perhaps no surprise that over a fourth those attempting to change the way we do things on the Norrsken list happen to energy startups. 

At the unveiling of the Norrsken 100 - at Norrsken House, Barcelona on Wednesday - was none other than former US Secretary of State, Massachusetts Senator and Climate Envoy John Kerry. 

He's the current Co-Executive Chairman of investment firm Galvanize that focuses on scaling up commercially competitive climate solutions. 

Following the unveiling and keynote remarks by Kerry, yours truly caught up with him to discuss the energy market's direction and rising global demand permutations. 

"Meeting this rising challenge will require collaboration, and encouraging startups like the ones recognised here. Question here is not which energy transition solution to back but rather what can be accelerated and upscaled where in the shortest possible time at the most competitive price," he noted. 

Yours truly also discussed the emerging energy landscape in the US. He described it as pretty "promising," despite the febrile political atmosphere stateside that he alluded to in his opening remarks at the event, albeit a tad skewed to his political leanings. 

Beyond the US, Kerry emphasised the need to bring "Global South" along for the energy transition journey as the biggest effects of energy poverty and most devastating effects of climate change are often felt there. 

Following a conversation with Kerry, this blogger headed to the event's dialogues and a rather unique 'Fixathon.' A spokesperson described it a "hackathon, but focused on solving real-world challenges that desperately need fixing."

And based on this premise, the participants collaborate in teams to turn ideas into applicable solutions or working prototypes, using AI and open tools. 

Away from the sessions, dialogues, meetings and fixathons, the Oilholic mingled with the founders and CEOs of three energy startups on the Norrsken 100. 

They included Saurabh Kapoor, CEO of Metafuels, a name the readers of this blog should be pretty familiar with. (More here, if you are not). 

The other two included - Guilherme Studart, CEO of Delfos Energy, an energy-tech firm that deploys AI via a purpose-built platform for the advanced management of renewable energy assets, and Linus van Ginhoven, Head of Product at Blykalla, a company offering lead-cooled nuclear technology solutions. It was great hearing from both about their respective firms, and their plans for the future.  

Well that's all from Barcelona folks, more market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Norrsken IMPACT/WEEK 2026 proceedings.Photo II: Former US Secretary of State John Kerry (left) with Energy Market Analyst Gaurav Sharma. Photo III (right to left): Energy Market Analyst Gaurav Sharma, with Harry Ashcroft, co-founder of Perseid and Saurabh Kapoor, CEO and co-founder of Metafuels. © Gaurav Sharma, October 2026. 

Monday, October 12, 2026

That diesel deal & the subsequent kerfuffle

Another week, another geopolitical kerfuffle courtesy of US President Donald Trump. 

On Sunday, the President announced a confidence building diesel deal with Russia, allowing the Kremlin to reenter the global diesel market. 

That's if you believe no one was buying their's in the first place - a logic only applicable in West. 

Not one to shy away from controversy, Trump did what Trump does best - spring a surprise. It seems straight after pushing fellow G7 nations into releasing 100 million barrels of diesel, Trump indicated that Russia would be putting out diesel export tranches of 2.25 million barrels (immediately), 3.75 million (November) and 7.5 million (December). 

However, both Russia's ability to provide what Trump says the country would as well as the impact of the move on diesel prices at the pump - currently north of $6 per gallon stateside - remains questionable. Here's the Oilholic's take via his column on Forbes.

Yours truly also discussed the diesel deal development and general direction of the crude oil market in interviews on broadcast media this week. 

Starting with the latter point, in an interview with Asharq Bloomberg's Mohamed Fathy, yours truly touched on the current volatility and why there's a premium in favour of spot crude prices over already elevated futures prices. 

Ultimately, the market needs a solution to the Middle East crisis - however imperfect that might be - for this to end, and for prices to come down because there is plenty of crude in the market. Were peace to prevail, $100 per barrel Brent prices simply cannot be sustained and carry considerable downside in that eventuality. 

But the market remains in the land of geopolitical risk premiums that are hitting home harder via spot markets, rather than futures trading levels. 

As for the former point - Trump's new 'diesel deal' with Russia - yours truly discussed the figures related to it in an interview with Barbara Serra on Sky News, and why as noted in the Forbes column one is wholly unconvinced.

One additional thing worth noting here - as the Oilholic said on Sky News - is that people should spare a thought for Europe where the US-Russia move may perhaps come as an economic relief of sorts, but wont ease inflationary pressures caused by multiple geopolitical crises. 

For instance, in the UK, diesel is around £2.07 per litre ($2.75) at the pump at the time of writing! European economies are indeed heading for a very tough Q4 2026. On that sombre note, its time to say goodbye for now. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Fueling up a car © andreas160578 / Pixabay. Photo II: Energy Market Analyst on Asharq Bloomberg © Asharq Bloomberg, October 2026. Photo II: Energy Market Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Sky News © Sky News, October 2026. 

Thursday, October 08, 2026

Turning to ocean energy at ICOE OEE 2026

Earlier this week, The Oilholic also attended 
ICOE OEE 2026 - a global event on ocean energy being held in The Hague, Netherlands, whilst in town for another engagement. 

The International Conference on Ocean Energy (ICOE) and Ocean Energy Europe (OEE) joint event, supported by the Dutch Energy from Water Association (EWA), featured a conference programme with several technology and policy content streams. 

These were accompanied by networking events and site visits to key Dutch ocean energy sites and companies. The Oilholic viewed it as a great opportunity to meet key stakeholders in the ocean energy sector from the industry and supply chain firms to startups, research fellows to those leading corporate innovation and development.

The event offered a glimpse of "watts in the water" and how the various forms of ocean energy can potentially be amplified in service of a rapidly electrifying world. The discourse touched on the wider offshore energy ecosystem and inter-organisational collaboration that's shaping the next generation of clean ocean energy across tidal, wave and other marine energy applications. 

In a nudge to the hosts, delegates also got a showcase of research and the real-world impact of initiatives in South Netherlands.

Alongside these wide-ranging discussions, two analysis strands stood out for this blogger. The first one being pragmatic discussions on the commercialisation of ocean energy technologies and the various avenues under consideration to go down the cost curve.

Indeed, many attendees offered (and presented) approaches and strategies to reduce cost at every stage of the design and project development process of what are unsurprisingly big ticket projects.

The second one was the use of AI in ocean energy and deployment of digital twins. Real sea demonstrations are pretty complex and capital intensive projects in often intimidating operating environments. It is why the capacity to accurately model and predict how a system will behave is extremely valuable. That is where AI is proving to be pretty handy. 

ICOE OEE 2026 discussed these very AI solutions being deployed today in ocean energy to support modelling, develop predictive digital twins, and ultimately reduce operational costs and improve ocean energy devices.

Away from the dialogues and networking with industry peers, yours truly also took time out to visit the event's exhibition floor. This year's expo drew in nearly 40 exhibitors from the UK to Canada.

To round up an exciting few days of discussions, here's a parting thought from ICOE OEE 2026 - with, of course, the caveat of the investment climate attached - research suggests the tidal stream energy market carries an estimated global resource of 800-1,200 Twh that could replace nearly 13% of the world's fossil fuel powered electricity generation! Let's see where that ship sails. 

But that's all from The Hague for now folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: An ICOE OEE 2026 showcasing session in The Hague, Netherlands, October 5, 2026. Photo II: Marine energy technology on display at ICOE OEE 2026. Photo III: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at the ICOE OEE 2026, October 7, 2026 © Gaurav Sharma, October 2026. 

Monday, September 07, 2026

How much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz?

Another week, another round of skirmishes between US Navy and Iran, and another all-too-predictable geopolitical risk premium-driven oil price spike. 

In fact, the Brent front-month futures contract is back lurking around $100 mark on renewed fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. 

For now, many in the market are wondering just how much oil is indeed getting through the strait at the moment. 

However, assessing that is proving pretty tricky. Data aggregators are reporting different numbers of ships now passing through the key maritime artery that Iran disrupted in the wake of the war, and continues to disrupt.

Versus a pre-war volume of 20 million barrels per day, down to near zero at the height of the war (in March and April) and back up in June during a short-lived ceasefire - latest empirical and anecdotal evidence from this blogger's sources puts the volume in the range of 5 to 9 million bpd. 

This is hotly contested, as noted by Kpler, in a blog explaining why figures vary and why its range is 5 to 10 million bpd. Nuances in data gathering aside, vessels also "go dark" switching their trackers off, travel in the dark and in protected convoys near the Oman coastline. 

That protection is near always provided by the US Navy which leaves its government the only source of concrete data. Figures published by it put oil transits at the upper end of the range around 10 million bpd. 

And on September 2, Energy Secretary Chris Wright put the figure above 17 million bpd whilst talking to the media - the highest since the war began. 

In other interviews, including one with Fox News, Wright defended US data quipping: "Why would we lie?" 

That is a fair point, because if the statistics on volumes are fiddled - they will eventually be found out. 

In the meantime, oil prices remain volatile contingent upon the news flow and will likely remain that way for now. Here is the Oilholic's latest Forbes post on the developments and more. Where its all going is anyone's guess. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! Leaving you all with two photos of the Strait of Hormuz (above) taken by this blogger from the Omani coastline some 13 years ago. It was a tad calmer back then. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I & II: View of the Strait of Hormuz from Khasab, Musandam Peninsula, Oman. © Gaurav Sharma, August, 2013.

Monday, August 24, 2026

Back to a "highest since July" oil market

Another month of uncertainty in the Middle East has resulted in another round of wild price swings in the oil market, and often heard quips of Brent and WTI futures having hit their highest since July. That was literally just a month ago. 

US President Donald Trump's latest move is to hit Iran economically. With all else failing to resolve a safe and certain passage of energy (and other) cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, and major regional exporters like Saudi Arabia and UAE exploring alternative transit routes, focus of the White House has now turned to crippling Iran's economy intertwined with its energy industry via non-military means. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the latest move as "an economic D-Day" and "the single greatest financial offensive ever" - the full details of which will follow over the coming weeks. Given the limited range of options available to bring a swift end to the tension, such a long shot is worth a try, even if the Islamic republic's capacity to ride it out and pass on the hardship to its people is pretty well documented. 

Meanwhile, the oil market is learning to live with the diplomatic deadlock of the past few months following on from the breaking out of hostilities on February 28. It has become a sort of a 'perma-crisis' or a permanent crisis as risk premiums subside only to rise again, and more of the same.

In recent weeks we have seen crude oil cargoes continue to move under the cloud of geopolitical uncertainty largely along the Omani coastline. Various data aggregators indicate the figure may be somewhere in the region of 9-10.5 million barrels per day. Now, even if taken at the upper end of the range, that's still only around half of the volume noted in February. 

As such the domino effect of all this will continue to be felt by the global market with elevated and volatile prices. But that hit is nowhere near the three-figure levels seen at the height of the conflict in March and April. 

Using Brent as a benchmark as the time of The Oilholic posting this blog - oil futures are trading down 0.6% on last week, up 6% on last month, down 3% on the past three-months but up 33% on last year, as trading on daily developments becomes the order of the day. Expect more of the same for now. 

That's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015.

Wednesday, August 05, 2026

On deep tech startups in the Munich-Dresden corridor

Markus Bohl, CEO of Ignite Next (right)
with Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma,
in Munich, Germany.
For much of the year, the Oilholic has been researching how emerging deep tech startups in the energy and industrials space appear to find a natural home in Germany's Munich-Dresden corridor. 

This concluded with a Forbes feature on the subject available here, should you wish to read it. The initial focus of the research was on purely on the Munich's startup ecosystem. 

But scale-up and mentoring experts Markus Bohl and Alois Eder - the co-founders of Ignite Next - were pretty instrumental in convincing yours truly that Dresden should figure in the mix too, as part of an innovative 400 km-wide corridor. 

For context, Ignite Next helps startups connect, work and scale-up with multiple partners across a broad range of frontier technologies, from semiconductors, photonics, advanced manufacturing, robotics and artificial intelligence, through to quantum computing. Bohl and Eder believe the Munich-Dresden region provides the ideal setting for it. "The overarching idea has always been to give founders direct access to technical expertise, market insight, and investor readiness support in a wider deep tech ecosystem that we’re all a part of in Munich and Dresden," Bohl added. 

Quite frankly, as The Oilholic noted in the Forbes feature, the numbers speak for themselves. Munich remains the primary driver of valuation in Germany - outside of Berlin - securing around the €3 billion ($3.5 billion) mark in raises per year, with a total registered startup enterprise value of over €101 billion ($115 billion), according to Dealroom data.

That’s over a fourth of the combined enterprise value of all VC-backed German startups founded since 1990. The market in Dresden operates on an intertwined scale that’s a fifth smaller than Munich’s each year, but one that’s highly targeted.

As the region marches onwards and upwards, over a fourth of these startups describe themselves as energy, industrial, clean technology or zero-carbon mobility outfits and consider themselves to be increasingly instrumental in driving a Europe-wide "energiewende" or energy transition as their numbers continue to rise. 

(Left to right) Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma, Kevin Berghoff, CEO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, Alois Eder, CTO of Ignite Next and Fleming Bruckmaier, CTO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, at the company's laboratory in Munich.

Via the good folks at Ignite Next, the Oilholic also met the founders of a couple of these startups. The first was Proxima Fusion, who's CEO Francesco Sciortino explained how his energy startup is developing commercial nuclear fusion power plants. 

Its core offering banks on commercialising "stellarator-based" magnetic confinement fusion technology. So far it has raised over €200 million ($230 million) in equity and grants. In simple terms, a stellarator is a fusion power device that confines plasma using external magnets.

And the second was Quantum Diamonds, a startup developing atom-sized quantum sensors carrying the potential to "redefine" measurement in various high-tech industries like semiconductors, according to CEO Kevin Berghoff. 

Both Berghoff and fellow co-founder Fleming Bruckmaier, also invited The Oilholic for a fascinating and informative tour of their laboratory and operational site in Munich, where their team is attempting to commercialise synthetic diamond-based quantum sensors with nitrogen-vacancy centers to provide non-destructive, high-resolution magnetic imaging of semiconductor chips. In today's fraught geopolitical climate that'll probably be deeply appreciated. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! Sincere thanks to Ignite Next, Quantum Diamonds and Proxima Fusion for their time for The Oilholic's wider research into the region, and here's wishing them all every success for the future. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Markus Bohl, CEO of Ignite Next (right) with Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma. © Ignite Next, June 2026. Photo II: (Left to right) Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma, Kevin Berghoff, CEO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, Alois Eder, CTO of Ignite Next and Fleming Bruckmaier, CTO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, at the company's laboratory in Munich, Germany. © Quantum Diamonds, June 2026.

Monday, August 03, 2026

UK's ill-thought 'tech education reboot' for 14-year-olds

Last week, the latest occupant of 10 Downing Street Andy Burnham - the UK's sixth Prime Minister since David Cameron left office in 2016 and the Labour party's second - came up with what he wants British voters to believe is a clever education policy. 

But in truth, it appears to be a pretty stale, ill-thought and repackaged one associated with his predecessor Keir Starmer. 

So, here's the backstory in case you haven't heard - on Monday, July 27 the egregious Burnham - UK PM, media anointed 'King of the North' and former Mayor of Manchester - declared: "From today Britain will value the hard hat as much as the graduation cap."  

Under his "new" instituted "fundamental changes" to the UK education system, Burnham said 14-year-olds will be able to get "early access" to technical education, skills training, work experience and connections with employers. But upon deeper examination, it falls apart as political claptrap. 

For starters, there's a glaring lack of originality as the announcement's own first footnote states: "Most secondary schools already offer some form of technical qualification, but the PM’s new plan will boost quality, availability and status of the offer."

There appears to be no clarification on how or what would be different - just a lukewarm, vague, political rehash of what Starmer said in 2025 and changed nothing! But fanboys and girls from the media to the Labour party were promptly sent out to regurgitate that the move is some sort of a profound change which it isn't, accompanied by cheesy, cringy videos featuring Burnham himself.

The announcement also contains little to no clarity on funding. Even British teaching bodies and unions are flummoxed, to put it mildly, in their pursuit of some differentiators. At least the UK Labour party's members of parliament - many of whom posted same lauding soundbites in 2025 - can copy and paste them with minor edits.

Here's The Oilholic's bit of repurposing of what yours truly said in 2025 from his own observations as an energy and industry analyst and those of widely known industry stakeholders. Of course, it is great to prioritise other educational routes that break the norm! Germany has done so better than most. But they start it at 15 going on to 16 post-secondary school.

At 14 and secondary school, its about firming up the basics in English, mathematics, core sciences (especially chemistry and physics), geography, etc. if technical pathway is one of their liking. The chosen year is NOT ideal at all in The Oilholic's opinion.

Intertwining it with future employment prospects of 16 to 24-year-olds or NEETs ("Not in education, employment or training") matters. Yet, the root cause of alarmingly high UK youth unemployment isn't necessarily that young people don't have the skills - rather the British macroeconomic climate of the past two years that has clobbered the appetite of business and industry to hire, right down to the Labour party's "policy gems" and related factors such as: 

  • Dogma-driven national insurance and minimum wage hikes without any thought process on their impact on the ability of businesses to hire. 
  • A draconian employment rights act largely drawn up by people who have never run any business or industry but think they can preach and lecture those who do. 
  • Businesses and industries up and down the UK face the highest commercial energy prices among major developed nations. Yet, the Net Zero man behind it all - former Energy Secretary Ed Miliband - is now prancing around the world clocking taxpayer supported airmiles as the country's Foreign Secretary.
  • There is widespread deindustrialisation in the UK with only four operational refineries (ExxonMobil Fawley, Phillips 66 Humber, Valero Pembroke and Essar Stanlow) down from six in 2024 when the Labour party came to power, and ten in 1997. That alone gives a flavour of opportunity and capacity decimation in the engineering and industrial value chain of the UK. 

Contrary to Labour's claim, such economic losses along with those from over-taxed UK offshore exploration and production, will likely not be replaced by new green industries within and beyond the energy spectrum - and remains a headcount improbability even with subsidy support. So, no amount introduction of technical and industrial subjects taught at 14 will reverse things if there's a diminishing core industrial and commercial base for the youth to turn to for employment.

Burnham's move - if you can call it at that given all that's come with it are waffly and vacuous soundbites - will do nothing to assuage fears of a lost generation because as an economy the UK is staring at lost industries and purpose.

Most Labour PMs from Clement Attlee to Tony Blair, typically began their time in office offering a vision of the future. But Burnham started his in July by offering multiple, garbled, made-for-media, and often contradictory "visions" looking backwards, like a sample meant to test public opinion and focus groups to gauge its shelf-life. This "policy" is / will be no different.

Finally, if it's so groundbreaking - with no plan or extra funding attached - Labour party and Burnham should subject it to proper scrutiny which has been sadly and unsurprisingly lacking. And alongside it remains a lack of understanding that vocational education does not mean giving up on the academic side especially at the age of 14. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Downing Street, London, UK sign © paulbloch / Pixabay, Aug 2017.

Thursday, July 30, 2026

That 'other' oil and gas market risk to fret about

Earlier this week, fuel shortages in Russia brought that 'other' geopolitical risk for the oil market into sharp focus - the Russia-Ukraine War that's been raging since 2022. 

That's after attacks by Ukraine on Russia's energy infrastructure caused chaos at the country's pumps impacting 35% of the Russian population. 

This is festering wider discontent as Ukrainian attacks literally hit peoples lives from the pump to the supermarket. Additionally, the lack of service at the pumps in Moscow, which is also facing shortages, is a prestige issue. That's why Siberian volumes are being redirected to the capital. It has led to some levels of improvement.

Ironically, what has also improved the situation temporarily over the past week is Ukraine's own internal disagreements on what to target in Russia, and some attacks have shifted away from refineries and fuel depots to other economic targets. They will return.

So, where is all this going? Issue here for the Kremlin is that the statistics are quite damning. For the Russian government there is not a single region of the country, including the capital, that hasn't been impacted by the fuel shortages. 

This is astonishing for a country of Russia's size with a population of 143 million people. President Vladimir Putin's response would / is proving to be hard to predict. 

Perhaps it's 50:50 in terms of escalating the conflict in a more hardline way or latching on to US President Donald Trump's offer of mediating some form of peace with Kiev. But based on past form, Putin is not known to give in to pressure. 

The energy market and indeed the world are truly in uncharted waters as this profound geopolitical crisis of our age festers on in the background while the world frets over the US-Iran debacle.

This was the subject of yours truly's latest interview on TRT World's Roundtable program with host Enda Brady. Here's the link to the full broadcast should you wish to view it. But that's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Fueling up a car © andreas160578 / Pixabay, Mar 2017. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on TRT World on July 27, 2026 © TRT World, July 2026.

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Fresh US-Iran tension = higher oil prices. What's next?

Fresh tension in the Middle East, fresh exchange of fire between the US and Iran, a threat from President Donald Trump to impose a 20% charge on transits in the Strait of Hormuz (subsequently retracted), and a fresh US blockade of Iranian ports that has followed since can all only mean one thing - higher oil prices. 

Just when you thought that a normalisation of the crude market was on the horizon, Brent futures had fallen to pre-War pricing levels, and oil glut chatter resurfaced - disruption came glaring back. Versus last week, both Brent and WTI are up by double-digits. That is to be expected when a key maritime artery through which a fifth of the world's oil and LNG transit remains severely disrupted. 

When Iran initially started attacking ships and tankers transiting through the Strait of Hormuz (again) a fortnight ago for using the southern Hormuz corridor in Oman's territorial waters versus its own northern corridor, the idea was perhaps to see what the US response would be, re-assert its authority, and more generally poke Trump as it was. 

Not sure what the Iranians were expecting, other than what's since happened - a overwhelming show of force by US, a reimposition of a blockade on Iranian oil and more turmoil. The big question for the market is not where we are currently at, but rather where is this is going? 

A prolonged disruption can now only lead to one outcome - a diminished importance of the Strait of Hormuz over the medium-term with the rest of the region contemplating alternative pipeline routes, having taken a cue from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

And for the moment, we'll continue to see elevated - but not out of control - oil prices as the true cost of this latest costly miscalculation is counted. That's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.
To follow The Oilholic on Critical Mass click here.

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: VLCC Kelly moored at the Port of Fujairah, UAE. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2016.

Friday, July 03, 2026

Oil down to pre Iran War prices, glut chatter & more

Trading sessions over the past weeks have seen oil prices drop back down to levels last seen before the Iran War began on February 28. They are as far removed as possible from alarmist predictions of $200 per barrel oil prices at the height of the conflict. 

Past the midway point of the current trading year, and having endured an almighty geopolitical shock to the system, Brent is trading just above $70 per barrel while the WTI's just below it. 

Overall, both benchmarks are now down nearly 35% on a three-month basis covering the most stressful flashpoints of the war in the last three months. 

We were largely kept there by copious amounts of US crude, especially light sweet crude, out in the market, as well as other sources of non-OPEC / non-Middle Eastern crude from Norway, Canada, Brazil and Guyana. The tenacity of the UAE and Saudi Arabia in moving their crude despite severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz also helped to a degree. 

With the risk premium having receded, a 60-day negotiation between Washington DC and Tehran now underway, and maritime traffic moving a bit more meaningfully through the Strait of Hormuz - attention ought to turn to a normalisation of the market. 

Instead, chatter about an oil glut has returned with a vengeance with everyone from the International Energy Agency to Goldman Sachs bringing it into sharp focus for Q1 2027. Is it right to talk about it? Yes. Is it a tad premature? Also, yes!

Normalisation cannot occur in a snap when a fifth of the world's oil supply has been disrupted by the event. Tankers are out of place, cargoes stuck in the Gulf will take time to get going, there are production concerns, especially in Iraq and Kuwait, and infrastructure that's been damaged would need repairing. 

Much of this would take much of the remainder of the year to get back on track. That said the UAE's recent exit from OPEC, and the OPEC+ production hike coupled with higher non-OPEC production would put additional barrels on the market. So, oversupply could become a market feature in the face of lower demand late into Q1 2027. However, for this to happen early on in Q1 2027, much would depend on China's intake. 

In a sense, had the Iran War not happened that surplus was widely expected late into Q1 2026, rather than potentially a year later which is where the market finds itself. As for 2026 itself, in terms of fresh prospection, Wood Mackenzie identified 23 high-impact wells in 2026. It noted that these wells either have the potential to prove the viability of frontier basins or build upon the success of super-giant discoveries of 2025. 

Petrobras's Morpho-1 (800 million barrels of oil equivalent potential) has the potential to open up the Foz do Amazonas basin and Equinor's S-M-1378-1 in Brazil's Santos Basin could prove the viability of pre-salt microbial carbonates, above and beyond BP's Bumerangue discovery.

Finally, before one takes your leave, here's yours truly's latest Energy Connects column on how supermajors are spending their Iran War windfall, and here's one for Forbes on the rise and rise of the Munich-Dresden corridor for energy and industrial startups.  

Well that's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015.

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

That's a wrap from Energy Projects Conf & Expo 2026

The Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026 concluded on Wednesday with further discussions on AI solutions aimed at delivering next generation of projects. 

Delegates heard how generative engineering was slashing design-to-groundbreaking cycles by 50% through automated layout optimisation and AI-driven simulation.

Later in the afternoon, Lindsay See, Commissioner, US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, said the authority was working toward fair and predictable permitting as project sponsors and regulators confront grid infrastructure and supply costs. 

Away from the plenaries, the Oilholic took time out to head to the event's expo where over 400-plus exhibitors were out in full force courting business in the EPC sphere and displaying their state of the art solutions for the industry. 

Overall, the conference and expo saw over 7,000 attendees, and more than 250 speakers - present company included - who spoke across five content streams. Yours truly also took time out to record the next Schneider Electric insight video while out here in America's energy capital. 

Hany Fouda, Senior Vice President, Process, Discrete & Hybrid Automation Industrial Automation Business and André Marino, SVP Industrial Automation North America, Schneider Electric, discussed some of the biggest shifts they are currently seeing in how EPCs are approaching automation and digitalisation. 

We also discussed the company's EcoStruxure Foxboro Software-Defined Automation products - the industry’s first open, software-defined Distributed Control System. It was launched by Schneider Electric earlier this year. Watch this space, details and the video coming soon! 

And that's a wrap from the Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026. It's almost time to head back home to London from Houston folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at the Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026 in Houston, Texas, US on June 16, 2026. © Gaurav Sharma, June 2026. Photo II: (L to R) Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma, Hany Fouda, Senior Vice President, Process, Discrete & Hybrid Automation Industrial Automation Business, and André Marino, SVP Industrial Automation North America, Schneider Electric, speak at the Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026 in Houston, Texas, US on June 16, 2026. © Schneider Electric, June 2026.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Talking "co-innovation" & energy investment at EPC26

The Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026 got underway in Houston, US on Tuesday incorporating dialogues on engineering, construction, commissioning, operations and maintenance across LNG, power, midstream, downstream and emerging energy segment under the theme "Where Energy Projects Get Built."

The Oilholic got straight into proceedings on the opening morning with an executive fireside briefing on the topic "Resilience by design: Building adaptive, digital operations now" at the event's main plenary stage.  

The panellists included André Marino, SVP Industrial Automation North America, Schneider Electric, Chris Scheefer, EVP Global AI, Energy & Chemicals at Capgemini, and William Barrett, VP Product Development, Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive.

The timing and the setting for such a discussion couldn't have been more ideal. By some estimates, the US is in the middle of the largest energy buildout in a generation stretching from major LNG projects to offshore exploration, utility-scale renewables to nuclear. 

Industry projections suggest the US is committing $9.1 trillion to energy infrastructure through to 2038. With the proliferation of hyperscale datacenters profoundly altering power (water and cooling solutions) demand scenarios, this need not come as a surprise. 

In the face of this, the industry can no longer rely on legacy delivery and operating models to service a US economy premised on digitization and automation, twin facets in turn underpinned by electrification.

Under these new pressures, the panel discussed how project sponsors, EPCs and their industrial & software partners need to build smart, agile and resilient foundations, or shall we say “co-innovate.”

It was a great discussion with the panellists offering pragmatic solutions, some reality checks and learnings from their respective experience. 

We also discussed how the change required isn't incremental but architectural, as well how the industry’s contracting and governance structures that were built for a previous era need to be revisited in the age of digital automation and AI. 

To quote Schneider Electric's Marino, the next era of US energy infrastructure will not be won by organisations that build the most but by those that build differently — unifying electrification, automation, and digital intelligence from day one, designing resilience in rather than bolting it on, and turning every hour of operational continuity into margin. That investment window is indeed open now. 

Elsewhere, away from the plenary stage, leadership sessions kicked-off along several different content silos including LNG Engineering & Construction, LNG Investment & Finance, Midstream Engineering & Construction, Nuclear EPC, Petrochemicals, Refining & SAF and Power Generation EPC over the course of an engaging opening day of proceedings. 

Never far away from the conference halls were discussions among delegates on the currently  falling oil price and speculative details of the deal between Washington and Tehran to hopefully conclude the Iran War. 

Both Brent and WTI were down by 11% on Monday, over the previous week as the market awaits formal details of the agreement. Then begins the long march toward market normalisation which may take better parts of six to seven months. That's all for now folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at the Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026 in Houston, Texas, US on June 16, 2026. © Gaurav Sharma, June 2026. Photo II: (L to R) Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma, André Marino, SVP Industrial Automation North America, Schneider Electric, Chris Scheefer, EVP Global AI, Energy & Chemicals at Capgemini and William Barrett, VP Product Development, Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive speak at an Energy Projects Conference & Expo 2026 panel in Houston, Texas, US on June 16, 2026. © Schneider Electric, June 2026.

Thursday, June 11, 2026

100 days+: Oil price swings continue on Iran War news

We're well past the day 100 mark of the Iran War and the wider Middle East crisis that's been upending global oil markets since February 28. As the conflict between the US and Iran escalated, and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz took hold - not only did it impact crude markets, but dragged LNG, LPG, fertilizer, petroleum distillates, helium, and more, into the turmoil. 

However, its the poster futures contract of the global commodities business - oil - that most seem to focus on with a fifth of the world's supplies held up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the US and Iran having moved from an all out conflict to sporadic skirmishes, and a US Navy blockade of Iranian ports since early April, oil futures continue to trade on news signals. 

Ups and downs, swings and roundabouts in the futures market have sent Brent down 16% on the month, down 12% on a 3-month basis but up 46% year-till-date. That's after latest escalation and de-escalation, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared on Thursday that it will all be over soon (again!) or Iran will pay dearly, and so it goes, pushing Brent below $90 per barrel intraday. 

Make no mistake, this has all the makings of a 'permacrisis' of some sort that'll persist with half-baked agreements for a while yet. The ongoing as well as potential future impact of it is something yours truly discussed last week on TRTWorld's RoundTable programme hosted by Enda Brady. 

We spoke about the complexities energy producers and consumers alike are facing, and the potential for demand destruction. As such, to the Oilholic this crisis appears rather under-priced. 

With Asian economies in a bind over reliable crude oil and products supplies, and the Europeans sweating it out over natural gas - were the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to spill over well into Q3, the inflationary impact of the war will be felt way more acutely. More importantly, even if lasting peace were to arrive in the region tomorrow, it would still take at least until Q1 2027 for the markets to normalise. 

And yes, demand destruction of oil and natural gas in favour of not just renewable energy but also coal, is a very real and pretty visible prospect. Of course, a conclusion to the conflict would come as a massive release that would likely take the market into surplus in 2027. But we are still some way off from there. Should you wish to watch the programme, you can view the full episode here. But that's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on TRTWorld's RoundTable Programme on June 3, 2026. © TRT World, June 2026.