Speaking and moderating at Gastech 2024

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be moderating and speaking at Gastech 2024 in Houston, Texas, US, from September 17 to 20. Explore the global event's critical conference agenda that is driving the energy transition through groundbreaking innovation, visionary leadership, and action here.

And more on the Oilholic's panels and sessions here.

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in H-Town.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Digital event banner courtesy of dmgevents.

Third successive weekly loss for crude oil futures

As another trading week came to a close on Friday, oil futures posted their third successive weekly loss. That's the first such occurrence since early June and the Brent front-month contract is now down below $80 per barrel, having spent much of the month of July in the red. It seems no matter what the market is presented with inventory-wise, concerns over demand - especially China's demand - continue to weigh on trading sentiment.

The long ongoing divergence in global demand growth forecasts between the IEA and OPEC adds to the element of uncertainty, with the former keeping its projections for 2024 below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) and the latter maintaining them above 2 million bpd. 

And some in the market are factoring in an unwinding of OPEC cuts later this year, even though the Saudi oil minister has been on record saying the producers' group will react otherwise should conditions merit it. It looks like they do! 

Furthermore, for major buyers such as China and India the availability of discounted crude, however nominal that discount maybe, remains as yours truly noted in an interview with Asharq Bloomberg on July 17.

Overall, in a market that's seeking direction and looking at summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere, things have turned south given the absence of clear signals. As things stand, the first month of a pivotal third quarter of oil trading - ahead of a peaking of refinery demand in August - has turned out to be a damp squib for crude market bulls.

But it is (so far) looking like OPEC is not going to do much at its next meeting, Brent remains in backwardation and many are joining the IEA in predicting an oil market surplus toward the end of the year and early next year. Last week, investment bank Morgan Stanley became the latest to do so (For The Oilholic's Forbes post on the subject, click here). Oil is a story of demand too, so supply-side measures can only do so much in terms of impact in prices. 

Generally speaking, most contacts in the market envisage lower crude prices in Q1 2025, and much of the year-end surplus to be in light sweet crude, boosted undoubtedly by relatively higher US production. So the pipe dream of $90 Brent oil prices this year, remains just that - a pipe dream. That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Bloomberg TV © Asharq Bloomberg TV, July 17, 2024. 

Oil heading to $90, renewables in Japan & more

It's been a hectic few weeks in the energy markets over the course of which oil prices have acquired a bit of buoyancy. Its something they briefly lost last month following the OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude futures currently sit just a few dollars south of $90 per barrel level, having dropped below $80 in early June. 

While global crude demand permutations haven't materially altered, there is renewed optimism over lower interest rates in key markets. That and higher demand projections in Asian markets, especially India, appear to be supporting prices. This sets the stall for relatively higher crude prices as we enter the first month of the second half of the year. 

All things staying even, the Oilholic would argue there is now a near-term case for $90 Brent crude prices. However, defending price upticks beyond the level would prove tricky, given the fact that crude supplies, especially those of light sweet non-OPEC crude, remain on a solid footing.  

Away from the oil market, yours truly was interviewed by the BBC on Japan's and wider East Asia's renewable energy landscape. The Oilholic spoke about a call by the country's private sector to triple its renewables capacity by 2035. 

This kerfuffle over Japan's future energy mix has been going on since the Fukushima tragedy in 2011, and has been further complicated by readily available and competitively priced LNG. 

Japan continues to trail the G7 in terms of renewables. However, while still using coal as a power generation source, Japan is not expanding usage in the same way as India and China are. Overall, a renewables capacity target in excess of 360GW by 2035 looks very ambitious. However, never discount Japanese ingenuity for getting things done! 

Elsewhere, here is one of the Oilholic's missives from late June on why the world needs to nurture sustainable entrepreneurship for Forbes (click here), and another one on why green hydrogen's fate in a net zero economy hinges on upscaling for Energy Connects (click here).

Finally, on the eve of the UK's general election, here are this blogger's thoughts on how the outcome will impact the country's energy industry. Regardless of whoever wins, looks like UK Energy Inc may be stuck between a rock and hard place! That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on BBC World © BBC, June 25, 2024. 

Regular columns for Energy Connects

Dear readers, really excited to share the news that yours truly will now be writing regular opinion columns for global news and analysis platform Energy Connects. The portal, which is a part of the dmgevents portfolio, provides access to an engaged global audience that incorporates the entire energy value chain from oil and gas to wind, solar, utilities, hydrogen and nuclear companies. 

The first of the Oilholic's missives is already online here. Do give it a read, and feedback is welcome as always. Looking forward to offering more thoughts and analysis via Energy Connects on a regular basis from hereon. 

Delighted to share my first @energyconnects_ opinion piece & looking forward to writing for the title on a regular basis: Transitioning #oil market lays bare forecasters’ divergent assumptions https://t.co/s1YaVosCXV #OOTT #oilandgas #OPEC #IEA #EnergyTransition

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) April 25, 2024

Dive into our latest monthly column on the intriguing world of oil demand forecasting. Is it a science or an art? Uncover the debate and complexities shaping energy transition. #EnergyConnects #energynews #news #OOTT #oilandgas @The_Oilholic https://t.co/jC9MHQfiQW

— Energy Connects (@energyconnects_) April 26, 2024

More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

All missives from CERAWeek 2024

With CERAWeek 2024, organised by S&P Global, drawing to a close last week, the Oilholic marked a fascinating and engaging week for the energy markets with a number of pieces for Forbes as well as daily blog posts. 

Here are the Forbes pieces:

• Aramco Investing ‘Big Time’ In Renewables But CEO Slams ‘Fantasy’ Of Phasing Out Oil And Gas, March 18, 2024.
• Oil Is Nearing 5-Month Highs And Its Not Just About Supply Fears, March 18, 2024.
• What Will Oil Demand Look Like In 10 Years And When Might A ‘Peak’ Occur?, March 20, 2024.
• Why Bill Gates Reckons Houston May Become The ‘Silicon Valley Of Energy’, March 24, 2024.
• Global LNG Market: Sliding Prices In 2024, Rising Opportunities By 2030?, March 27, 2024.
• Energy Transition: Challenge Of Financing And Investing In A $6 Trillion Megatrend, March 28, 2024.

All blog entries for each CERAWeek day may be found here. 

And that's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

CERAWeek Day I: Aramco sets its stall in Houston

The Oilholic is back in town for CERAWeek 2024 and the first day has been pretty interesting. Key moments included - Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser wanting the world to ditch "fantasy" economics of phasing out oil and gas (full report for Forbes here) and Shell's CEO Wael Sawan telling delegates there is way more politicisation of oil and gas than is necessary. 

Sawan also took the opportunity to stress that Shell sees LNG as a massive opportunity. "We're heading for a multidimensional energy mix of the future. While we are stabilizing our oil business, we are actively growing our LNG business."

He added that the energy major was a "huge" believer in the LNG market's potential and sees demand rising "by 50% from current levels." 

Elsewhere, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said he was not trying to scupper Chevron's acquisition of Hess. Rather his sole objective in its dispute with Chevron was to establish its own rights over Hess' lucrative assets in Guyana. 

Elsewhere, former United States Energy Secretary, and now Founder & CEO of Energy Futures Initiative Ernest Moniz summed up the most significant accomplishments of COP28. CERAWeek's video of the session here is a good one to listen to. 

Other notable speakers on Day I included Jean Paul Prates, CEO of Petrobras, Meg O'Neill, CEO of Woodside Energy, Jack Fusco, CEO of Cheniere Energy and Torbjörn Törnqvist, Chairman of Gunvor. 

As panel discussions gathered pace, CERAWeek's Agora technology and innovation program also got underway, duly visited by yours truly during the second half of the day. 

Emerging cleantech and breakthrough applications of artificial intelligence appeared to be all the rage here with loads of chatter in open forum events being held in "pods." And of course, where there are pods, there have to be hubs! 

One such hub was Agora's Climate Hub, where the Oilholic attended the "Weathering the change" session late in the day, and received some interesting perspectives on the links between climate change and extreme events, albeit with some familiar soundbites. 

And the first day of CERAWeek also saw the oil price spike to near-five month highs as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries spooked the markets. After hours, Brent went as high as $87 per barrel, and here's why the Oilholic believes the $85 support level has been broken (for now). Well, that's all for the moment folks, more musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: Amin Nasser, Chief Executive Officer of Aramco & Wael Sawan, Chief Executive Officer of  Shell. Photo II: Climate Hub at CERAWeek's Agora program © Gaurav Sharma, March 2024. 

Quickfire visit to the Economist Sustainability Week

Earlier this morning, The Oilholic had the pleasure of attending Economist Impact's 9th Annual Sustainability Week in London, albeit briefly, given commitments elsewhere in what is turning out to be a very hectic March. 

In a day packed with interesting sessions, three of which this blogger found time to attend, the expected conjecture was that there aren't any viable commercial models to leave things as they are in a world facing climate change. So, should you buy that supposition, the next inevitable question is how to finance the energy transition? To this end, an afternoon session - Financing net zero: assessing and accelerating green finance - really stood out. 

Some of the profound discussion slants included - how are companies building on the progress of previous years and what strategies are they implementing to boost the deployment of green finance further? What kinds of green investment funds are helping to "finance an inclusive climate transition"?

The panel included Heather Buchanan, Chief Executive and Co-founder, Bankers for Net Zero, Nicki Harrison, Director, Sustainable Finance, Europe, Environmental Defense Fund Europe, Evelina Olago, Managing Director of Client and Strategy, Just Climate, and, of course, The Economist's very own global energy and climate innovation editor Vijay Vaitheeswaran. 

There was plenty of interesting chatter among the panellists about asset managers making informed decisions based on data, predictive analytics, IIoT, and all the rest, as well as genuinely linking transition finance to greener pathways, including green bonds and equity investments. 

But all is not plain sailing, and quite frankly no one expects it to be so. For starters corporate balance sheets are stretched. We are in a high interest rate climate, and will likely remain so near-term. Both will trigger caution when it comes investing petrodollars towards green causes. Private equity players - typically keen backers of viable cleantech forays - are also holding back given the uncertain climate.

However, products and services aimed at decarbonisation continue to strengthen, said the panellists. But they also made one key observation that chimes with market intel obtained by the Oilholic - the anti-ESG backlash (or movement if you wish) has indeed had a chilling effect of late on financing greener initiatives. 

That is particularly true in the US in an election year that is going to be a rematch between incumbent Joe Biden and the man he ousted from the White House - Donald Trump. Therefore, a lot may depend on the post-November discourse, and a possible Trump presidency could materially alter the green finance landscape both in the US and abroad. 

And on that thought, it's time to say goodbye. There are two energy site visits coming up plus the little matter of CERAWeek in Houston. So more musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Panel on financing net zero: assessing and accelerating green finance, at the Economist Impact Sustainability Week in London, UK on March 5, 2024. © Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

Getting going in 2024 after a break!

Greetings folks, the Oilholic is getting going meaningfully in 2024 after last year was marked by sporadic commentary and long pauses in blogging. 

Sincere apologies for that as yours truly was busy juggling his departure from a full-time job at a bank and taking time out for a paternity break for much of the last quarter. All went well in the end and bubb is here safe, sound and healthy! 

Call it a reboot, relaunch or a 'crude' restart - this blog is now going to be bigger and better with your support carrying regular market commentary, details of industry engagements, missives and interviews on energy economics, geopolitics, financials and more. So watch this space! 

And of course, the Oilholic will also continue his broadcast media commentary, energy circuit speaking engagements, and writing for Forbes and many other publications and websites as before! So here's to 2024. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Motley Fool click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo © Pixabay

Media missives from ADIPEC 2023

With ADIPEC 2023 drawing to a close last week, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week with a rounding off piece for Forbes on the criticality of scaling up technology - and, of course, backing it up with petrodollars and willpower, if a meaningful energy transition is to be achieved. To this end, this blogger had great conversations with ABB, AiQ, AspenTech, AVEVA and Avaada Group. (More here)

Yours truly also hit the airwaves to discuss the various soundbites coming out of the conference and various developments in Abu Dhabi, all in the midst of a very volatile crude oil market riddled with demand concerns, supply-side tightening and geopolitical complications. The final broadcasting call before departing was with Asharq Bloomberg News, with this blogger's week out in Abu Dhabi peppered with plenty of other missives via the keyboard for Forbes, the Motley Fool, and of course via this blog. 

All blog entries for each ADIPEC day may be found here. 

Some commentary on Shell's share price direction via the Motley Fool may be found here. And here are selected Forbes copies in chronological order based on soundbites and insight from ADIPEC 2023. 

• Emirati COP28 President Calls For A "Just, Orderly, Equitable And Responsible" Energy Transition, October 2, 2023.
• India "Will Manage" And Won't Panic If Oil Rises Above $100, Says Energy Minister, October 3, 2023.
• Abu Dhabi To Unveil World’s Fourth Largest Solar Farm "Very Soon", October 4, 2023.
• Oil Futures Slump Further On Uncertain Global Demand Outlook, October 5, 2023.
• Abu Dhabi In First Wind Farm Launch As 2GW Solar Project Nears Completion, October 8, 2023.
• 4 Middle East Geopolitical Scenarios That May Hike Oil Market Risk Premiums, October 9, 2023.
• Scaling Technology And Willpower Critical For 'Fast-Tracking' Global Energy Transition, October 10, 2023.

And that's a wrap. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Bloomberg TV on October 4, 2023 © Asharq Bloomberg 2023.

ADIPEC Day IV: Reflections at sunset in Abu Dhabi

The final and fourth day of ADIPEC 2023 has reached its conclusion as the sun sets here in Abu Dhabi with the show on a likely track to beat all its previous records (and quite possibly way more than the figure of 160,000 attendees it marketed). 

And that makes sense, as there is likely to be immense interest and intrigue when you bring together the various energy strands of oil, natural gas and renewables; and discuss everything from power markets to the future of shipping, whilst at the same time deliberate the obvious need to decarbonise. 

We came together on day one with the rallying cry of "Decarbonising. Faster. Together", we conclude proceedings perhaps with a call for evolution, understanding and collaboration. 

Evolution, as we explore new horizons offered by the spirit of human ingenuity in coming up with solutions for a low carbon economy. Understanding, that oil and gas will have to play a role for a good few decades yet, if not more, to ensure that energy poverty doesn't become the by-product of a slapdash rush to decarbonise. As for collaboration, need the Oilholic spell it out? Because if we don't work together, collaborate, partner and prepare for the road ahead, we will fail. 

Away from these pensive thoughts, this blogger also took time out on the final day to visit ADIPEC's wonderful Marine & Logistics Zone. It's here that the crew of ADNOC's support shipping fleet took one around a number of vessels currently being run on biodiesel, made from used and recycled cooking oil collected from restaurants around Abu Dhabi! Thank you to all the crew who spared their valuable time for the trip, and it was an experience the Oilholic will treasure. 

Paid a visit to @ADNOCGroup's biodiesel powered fleet of support vessels outside #ADIPEC2023's Maritime & Logistics Zone just before event ends. Had a very interesting talk / walk around vessel Ameer Alkouloub with the crew. Thank you! #OOTT #sustainablefuels #EnergyTransition pic.twitter.com/QNYC2yhwrf

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) October 5, 2023

With the time of departure here, this blogger would like to say that it was great to be back at ADIPEC after a three-year hiatus caused by the briefest of forays into the world of banking. It was great seeing old friends and making new ones in the buzz of this amazing event once again, and a privilege to be a part of it. Finally, and most importantly, my sincere thanks to the amazing team at dmg events who made it all happen and for their most wonderful hospitality. 

Well that's a wrap from Abu Dhabi folks. It'll be time for the big flying bus home to London Heathrow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photo: Sunset over Abu Dhabi NEC, the venue of ADIPEC 2023 © Gaurav Sharma 2023.

ADIPEC panel sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic will be moderating and speaking on the following panel sessions at ADIPEC 2023. Join if you can for some fantastic industry dialogues with great subject matter experts. 

October 3, 2023: Decarbonisation Strategic Conference 

Tuesday, October 3, 2023 @11:45am UAE

Carbon tax vs. subsidies: What is the best regulatory method to accelerate emissions reduction?

(Click image to enlarge for details)

---------------------------

October 2-4, 2023: Digitalisation in Energy Innovation Sessions

Monday, October 2, 2023 @13:00pm UAE

The twin transition: policy alignment between the green and digital agendas

Panel:

Andrei Covatariu, Co-Chair, Task Force on “Digitalization in Energy”, Vice-Chair of the Group of Experts on Energy Efficiency, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

Allyson Anderson Book, Chief Sustainability Officer, Baker Hughes 

Leonid Zhukov, VP of Data Science, BCG-X and Director of BCG Global AI Institute, BCG

Gaurav Sharma, Energy Market Analyst & Senior Contributor, Forbes

---------------------------

Tuesday, October 3, 2023 @14:00pm UAE

EV charging: driving new energy business models powered by data insights

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Wednesday, October 4, 2023 @14:30pm UAE

Future cyber security solutions: towards a ‘zero-trust’ energy system

1-on-1 discussion: 

Saravan Penubarthi, CTO, AIQ

Gaurav Sharma, Energy Market Analyst & Senior Contributor, Forbes

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2023. Photos: © Adipec, dmg events 2023.

Glimpses of the 23 WPC 2021 in Houston

The 23rd World Petroleum Congress (WPC) – widely regarded as the oil and gas industry's most prestigious and high profile global event – returned to Houston, Texas, US this week. It's taking place from December 5-9, 2021. Often described as the "Olympics" of the energy business, the World Petroleum Congress has been held since 1933 when London hosted its first round. 

From 1991 onward, the event has gone on to be held every three years. After a COVID-19 enforced delay in 2020, which pushed the event forward by a year to December 2021, Houston hosted the event for a second time, having previously hosted the 12th WPC in 1987. This blogger is privileged to be here and delighted to bring you some glimpses of this prestigious event. 

The 23rd World Petroleum Congress (23 WPC) floor in Houston, Texas, US

The 1.8m sq ft George R. Brown Convention Center in downtown Houston is the venue of 23 WPC 

Exhibition floor of the 23 WPC

ExxonMobil's stand at the 23 WPC exhibition

NASA's Space Exploration Vehicle on display at the 23 WPC

Sonya Savage, Minister of Energy of Alberta, Canada (left) calls for an honest conversation on the need for oil & gas as the world transitions to a low carbon economy

Boston Dynamics' RoboDog 'Spot' vows visitors at the 23 WPC

It is all about keeping the youth interested & having viable STEM pathways to avert a talent gap crisis in the oil & gas business, as deliberated by this panel

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (right) visits the 23 WPC exhibition floor

© Gaurav Sharma 2021. Photo © Gaurav Sharma, December 2021.

Murban futures launch, OPEC+ and Q1 2021

The first crude quarter of 2021 threw up a number of interesting developments for the oil markets, from fluctuating price sentiments to a divergence of views on the global supply-demand dynamic. More on market permutations later, but the Oilholic would like to kick-off this post by flagging a historic development that carries the potential of bringing about profound changes to the crude futures market – the launch of the Murban Futures contract.

It had been long-time coming with ambitions for the contract launch first surfacing early in 2019, and official confirmation arriving later that year. Market upheaval caused by the Covid-19 pandemic pushed the launch forward to 2021, when on March 29 the contract launched with a debut price of $63.43 per barrel. 

And with it history was made – Murban, traded on IntercontinentalExchange Futures Abu Dhabi, is the world's first futures contract predicated on the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's (ADNOC) flagship onshore crude oil. It means the offered market positions are directly linked to a major regional production centre. 

Alongside ADNOC as its backer, are nine of the world's largest energy traders including BP, ENEOS, GS Caltex, INPEX, PetroChina, PTT, Shell, Total and Vitol. Their hope is that physical oil traders use it as a benchmark, and price quality differentials off it accordingly as is the case with Brent. If physical traders are convinced that the new benchmark is reasonably liquid, it would take liquidity away from WTI, Brent and Dubai crude.

That is no mean feat and there have been previous false dawns in the region. To improve the odds of the benchmark's success, ADNOC has removed destination restrictions on the crude setting Murban apart from its regional competitors who have historically been bogged down by such limitations. And Asian refiners will now have a direct means to hedge against shifts in the price of Murban, rather than using derivatives linked to Dubai crude.

Of late, ADNOC’s production levels have averaged above 2 million bpd, with half of it set aside for the export market. In Fujairah - the main delivery point for Murban - ADNOC is currently building underground storage caverns that will be able to hold 42 million barrels of crude, including Murban. This will further strengthen the physical barrel underpinning of Murban futures. All in all, a very noteworthy development that carries a reasonably high chance of success over the coming years. Here's the Oilholic’s more detailed take on the development via Forbes.

Switching tack from the debut of Murban futures to the crude world in general, bullish sentiment that took hold in November 2020 has catapulted oil prices from $40 to $60-plus levels for both Brent and WTI. There's now chatter of $100 per barrel medium-term prices and a spike to even $190 in certain circumstances if you are to believe JPMorgan. 

This is nothing short barmy chatter by the longs and is wildly optimistic. In terms of reconciling expected crude oil demand in a post-Covid world versus supply, the Oilholic reckons the paper market is running two to three quarters, or around $5 per barrel, ahead of the physical market. 

Economic output in key markets remains sluggish, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) does not expect crude demand to catch up with supply until the third quarter of 2021. As for OPEC+, while its market calls on March 4 and April 1 have been described as bullish, they are in truth really bearish. 

On March 4, OPEC+'s headline production cut level was pegged at 7 million bpd, along with an additional and surprising voluntary cut of 1 million bpd by Saudi Arabia alone. However, Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to marginally increase their output to keep the OPEC+ peace.

And on April 1, OPEC+ said an additional 350,000 bpd will be added to production, with another 350,000 in June. From July, output will be increased by 450,000 bpd. Both OPEC+ announcements cheered the bulls. However, the market remains in real danger of getting ahead itself. That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk 

© Gaurav Sharma 2021. Photo: Kristina Kasputienė from Pixabay

Joining Citi Private Bank

Some personal news: After 16 years of scrutinizing #oil, #energy markets, felt I needed a change. Delighted to accept such an opportunity @Citi Private Bank at VP-level. I remain a 'crude' man but broadening analytical scope to EMs, circular economy, impact investing & more #OOTT

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) August 11, 2020

It has been a fantastic 'crude' journey for the Oilholic in the energy market and this blog has been with yours truly every step of the way for over a decade. Thank you all for your support. While long may that continue, commentary here would be a little tempered and slightly irregular as this blogger has taken up a Vice President / Lead Analyst's position at Citi Private Bank. 

Things won't be coming to a close here, but whatever appears on this blog would be in a private capacity only. That also applies to any commentary published here in the past prior to Aug 1, 2020. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

© Gaurav Sharma 2020.

A catalogue of ‘crude’ missives on oil market turmoil

In the nine days that have lapsed since yours truly last wrote a blog post, the crude oil market has gone crude and cruder, peppered with barmy ideas, suggestions of strange alliances, tariffs, and of course tweets. For all of that, two things haven't materially changed – crude demand collapse continues as the coronavirus or Covid-19 pandemic spreads, and oversupply in the face of demand destruction is already here.

So here are few of The Oilholic’s missives via Forbes and Rigzone tackling various market slants between March 26-Apr 2:

• With whole countries in lockdown mode, forecasters now reckon a fifth of global crude demand could be wiped out - Forbes, Mar 26, 2020. 
• The Oilholic's thoughts on why a resurrection of OPEC+ would be too little, too late for the oil market - Forbes, Mar 27, 2020.
• Oil futures are in record contango - Forbes, Mar 29,2020. 
• Oil benchmarks ended Q1 2020 around 66% lower and lack of storage space is becoming apparent - Forbes, Mar 31, 2020. 
• US shale explorer Whiting Petroleum becomes the first casualty of the current oil price slump as it files for bankruptcy - Forbes Apr 1, 2020. 
• Moody's announces series of predictable negative outlooks on major oil and gas companies - Forbes, Apr 1, 2020. 
• How Saudi belligerence has pushed VLCC rates to comedic highs - Rigzone, Apr 1, 2020. 
• And finally, how a Donald Trump tweet sent oil futures soaring but the gains are unlikely to last - Forbes, Apr 2, 2020. 

And that's about it for the moment folks! Stay safe, keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2020. 

Coronavirus lockdowns & crude oversupply

What a week it has been for humankind in general, let alone the commodities and equities market. Since the Oilholic arrived back to London from Houston on March 14, in a matter of days whole towns, cities, metropolitan areas, regions and countries have gone into lockdown mode around the world, with the coronavirus or Covid-19 having spread to over 100 countries.

After China, where the outbreak originated at the start of the year, now Iran, Italy, Spain and South Korea are in its grip. Heightened alarm about the spread of the coronavirus has seen European Union nations, Canada and the US close borders. Whole airlines are grounded, restaurants, pubs, bars and shops are shut, and workers in many sectors in several nations have been advised to work from home with restrictions slapped on venturing out.

Under similar circumstances and restrictions imposed in London (effective March 23) comes this missive from the Oilholic's living room. The last few weeks have alternated between how much of a demand slump the coronavirus would cause to what impact the collapse of OPEC+ would have over the near-term.

Such conjecture misses the wider point. Events have overtaken OPEC+ and are now largely beyond its control, and what we are witnessing is not just a demand slump but a total near-term collapse. Most oil demand forecasters are now predicting a 2020 demand shrinkage of around 155,000 barrels per day (bpd) instead of demand growth. Under the circumstances, that might be too optimistic.

From where the Oilholic sits, we could see a shrinkage of 250,000 bpd instead of a projected demand growth of 1.2 million bpd prior to the outbreak. Consider this - of the big five crude importers, China, which imports on average a whopping 14 million bpd, has had a lousy first quarter, and is likely to have disappointing or muted second and third quarters. Japan and South Korea are likely to import less, as will the US.

India, the one economy many were pinning their hopes, as a demand driver for 2020 prior to the coronavirus outbreak has also just gone into a lockdown effective Tuesday (March 24) for 21 days.

The country imports an average of 5 million bpd. So in three weeks alone, India won't be needing around ~ 100 million barrels with the negative impact spread over parts of the first and second quarters. Away from the big five, OECD demand remains as low as ever and is likely to head lower on temporary lockdowns from Poland to Australia.

And in the face of this demand crisis, is the issue of oversupply that has arisen in the wake of the collapse of the OPEC+ with Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC and non-OPEC producers vowing to pump more. For now, after posting declines of 20-30% week-over-week, Brent and WTI futures have settled in the $20-30 range following US stimulus measures to combat the coronavirus.

That may well prove to be a temporary reprieve after the extent of the supply glut, somewhere in the region of 10 million bpd in unwanted crude oil, becomes clearer. As for what it means for oil and gas companies large and small - here is the Oilholic's take via Forbes, as players bunker down for $20 oil prices and prepare to write of 2020. That's all for the moment folks! Stay safe! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Photo © Royal Dutch Shell, Oman.

OPEC+ in waiting mode as Russia plays hardball

Overnight (March 5) OPEC ministers met and proposed a deepening of existing oil production cuts by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to their Russia-led OPEC+ partners in an effort to calm the oil market following the coronavirus outbreak and its devastating impact on the global economy.

While the original 'deepening of cuts' proposal was set to last until end-June 2020, OPEC heavyweights met yet again late yesterday evening and announced the proposal would be extended to the end of 2020. 

The burden of 1.5 million bpd, would be shared as 1 million bpd and 0.5 million bpd between OPEC and non-OPEC players respectively. From a headline perspective, if approved the market would be looking at 3.2 million bpd of OPEC+ barrels being taken out of the global supply pool. 

With that the ball went into the Russian court, and that's where it has been since well into today (March 6). In that time, Russian Oil Minister Alexander Novak has gone and returned from Moscow, and an OPEC+ closed-door meeting scheduled to start at 9:30 CET, has yet to get going 14:20 CET!

And the Oilholic has putting his scenarios to colleagues in the broadcast media. 

As the #OPEC+ waiting game continues, it was a pleasure discussing #oil market direction with @Cibereporter of @euronews. No matter what OPEC does, demand scenarios following #CoronavirusOutbreak are looking pretty dire #OOTT #oilandgas pic.twitter.com/VoYvp6HhjN

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) March 6, 2020

It was a pleasure rounding off #OPEC commentary on @CGTNEurope's Global Business broadcast with @AP TV crew. Thanks for having me on the program. Q1, Q2 looking pretty uncertain for the #oil market #OOTT #oilandgas pic.twitter.com/qIAJ2QQ6qm

— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) March 5, 2020

In one scenario, Russia could say 'nyet' and you'd see bearish headwinds engulf oil futures and driving the price down to $30 per barrel. 

In another scenario, the mammoth cut would proceed providing only temporary relief to oil prices given the full extent of the coronavirus' demand destruction is yet to be clear. Although, Wall Street is belatedly, finally coming to terms with the magnitude of the destruction having ditched its complacency.

Finally, often the favourite colour at these OPEC meetings based on the Oilholic's past experience is grey. OPEC+ could emerge and offer a good old fashioned figures fudge involving OPEC cuts with the support of the Russians, and other non-OPEC players, with very few barrels to show for it. This too will either provide negligible or short-lived support. 

All of this bottles down to one thing - hardly anyone has an accurate handle on where oil demand is going, and the Oilholic believes there will be shrinkage on an annualised basis. Were that to be the case, a 'crude' logic applies - oil supply cuts never really solve a crisis of demand. It's where crude market presently is. OPEC can improve its odds via a cut but can do little more!

And on that note its time to leave Vienna for London, and then on to Houston, all the while keeping an eye on events here. But that's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2020.

Ten years of 'crude' blogging & a big thank you!

Its a day to say thanks and feel a tad nostalgic, as the Oilholic woke up this Christmas eve morning to the realization that today marks 10 years of this oil and gas market blog's appearance on cyberspace!

Boy does time fly! When yours took this blog live and put his first post up on December 24, 2009, Barack Obama had been in the White House for less than a year; Gordon Brown was still in Downing Street; the global economy was limping back from the financial crisis; the US shale revolution's impact hadn't been felt; OPEC had held its latest minister's meeting in Luanda, Angola instead of its secretariat in Vienna, Austria; and Brent and WTI futures closed at $76.31 and $78.05 per barrel respectively, with a premium in the latter's favour! That's a 10-year decline of $9.84 (-12.9%) for Brent and $17.5 (-22.42%) for WTI versus this European morning's prices in Asia.  

Back then, all this blog had was a handful of readers comprising of mutual acquaintances in the trading community who had been providing tips and invaluable feedback since 2007, when yours truly was working on concepts, and a trail site/domain. The subsequent blogging journey began on Christmas eve of 2009 when the Oilholic registered the www.oilholicssynonymous.com domain, and it has been quite a ride, and more, ever since. 

The blog underwent a complete template overhaul in 2011 as the readership started gaining traction. Well past its millionth pageview, it currently averages 12,000 reads a month. 

Well above average readership points are often brought about by posts on energy sector developments and events such as IPWeek, CERAWeek, OPEC and ADIPEC, where this blogger often takes speaking engagements at, resulting in monthly pageviews jumping above 100,000 reads a month. 

As in previous years, bulk of the readers who browse and read this blog in 2019 have come from the US, UK, Norway, Germany and China in that order, with American and British readers leading the pack by some distance. 

Many have logged in from some 127 countries week in, week out. So a massive thank you to all of you because without your readership, feedback and support this blog wouldn't be here. Alongside regular readers who find this blog via established routes, analytics also reveal the impact of Google, where many of you find your way to the Oilholic alongside LinkedIn, Twitter and Forbes.

What this blog has been about over the last 10 years is what it will be about in the future, carrying the Oilholic's analysis, thoughts, rants, musings and social media flags, about past events, developments and emerging scenarios in the sector, and the comments of fellow market experts one is able to interact with. 

It'll also continue to complement the Oilholic's analysis and media career, speaking circuit engagements, serve as a published clippings portfolio hub, broadcast commentary, work undertaken over the last 20 years (and counting), some favourite photographs and a selection of book reviews.

As the years go by, here's hoping this blog is (and will be) as much fun for those reading it as it is for the one writing it. So keep reading, keep it 'crude' and once again thank you for all your support.

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo: Screenshot of Oilholics Synonymous Report's homepage in 2010 © Gaurav Sharma.

Key energy industry interviews of 2019

As the current oil and gas trading year approaches its end, here are some of the industry interviews conducted by The Oilholic over the course of 2019 with C-suite executives around the world. The list includes group CEOs and Chairmen of Emerson, Hunting, IndianOil, OMV and Wintershall Dea. Most, but not all, of the interviews were published either on Forbes or Rigzone. 

John Rudolph, President of Honeywell Process Solutions 

'Productization' Of The Internet Of Things Is Here Says Honeywell's Automation Boss, Feb 11, 2019

Luca Volta, Marine Fuels Venture Head at ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil Eyes Marine Fuels Business Expansion As IMO 2020 Deadline Looms, Mar 13, 2019

David Farr, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Emerson

Change Manager Not Corporate Mandarin: Why Emerson CEO Likes To Break The Mold, Mar 18, 2019

John Markus Lervik, Chief Executive Officer and Cofounder of Cognite

Norway's Energy Software Firm Cognite Could Opt For IPO, Says Cofounder, Jun 13, 2019

David Gilmour, Head of BP Ventures

Quest For Strategic Deployable Solutions Fuels BP's Venture Funding Arm, Says Its Boss, Jun 28, 2019

Andreas Thorsheim, Cofounder and CEO of Otovo

'E-Commercializing' Solar Power: How Startup Otovo Is Eyeing Growth In Fragmented EU Market, Jul 9, 2019

Karl Johnny Hersvik, Chief Executive Officer of Aker BP

Aker BP's Mathematician CEO Says His Tech Company Just Happens To Produce Oil, Jul 10, 2019

Rainer Seele, Chief Executive Officer of OMV

Downstream Efficiencies, Upstream Prudency Reshaping $16B OMV, Says Oil Company's CEO, Aug 14, 2019

Greg Scheu, Head of Group Service & (former) President - Americas region at ABB

Oil, Gas Automation Fuelling ABB Americas' Hunt for Digital Natives, Aug 19, 2019

Jim Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Hunting Plc

Hunting Plc Is Not In A Race To The Bottom, Says Oilfield Services Firm's CEO, Sep 10, 2019

Rusty Hutson, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Diversified Gas and Oil 

Enhanced Recovery Maverick: Meet West Virginia Oilman Taking Resource Maximization To New Heights, Oct 14, 2019

Jason Urso, Chief Technology Officer at Honeywell Process Solutions

Honeywell on Constant Lookout for Tech Savvy Oil, Gas Talent, Nov 9, 2019

Sanjiv Singh, Chairman of IndianOil Corporation

India Seeks Global Petrodollars To Cope With Burgeoning Energy Demand Through 2035, Nov 16, 2019

Mario Mehren, Chief Executive Officer of Wintershall Dea

Wintershall Dea IPO Will Flag ‘Daisy Chain’ Of Natural Gas Projects, Says CEO, Dec 20, 2019

Here's to many more C-Suite chats in 2020. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019.