That diesel deal & the subsequent kerfuffle

Another week, another geopolitical kerfuffle courtesy of US President Donald Trump. 

On Sunday, the President announced a confidence building diesel deal with Russia, allowing the Kremlin to reenter the global diesel market. 

That's if you believe no one was buying their's in the first place - a logic only applicable in West. 

Not one to shy away from controversy, Trump did what Trump does best - spring a surprise. It seems straight after pushing fellow G7 nations into releasing 100 million barrels of diesel, Trump indicated that Russia would be putting out diesel export tranches of 2.25 million barrels (immediately), 3.75 million (November) and 7.5 million (December). 

However, both Russia's ability to provide what Trump says the country would as well as the impact of the move on diesel prices at the pump - currently north of $6 per gallon stateside - remains questionable. Here's the Oilholic's take via his column on Forbes.

Yours truly also discussed the diesel deal development and general direction of the crude oil market in interviews on broadcast media this week. 

Starting with the latter point, in an interview with Asharq Bloomberg's Mohamed Fathy, yours truly touched on the current volatility and why there's a premium in favour of spot crude prices over already elevated futures prices. 

Ultimately, the market needs a solution to the Middle East crisis - however imperfect that might be - for this to end, and for prices to come down because there is plenty of crude in the market. Were peace to prevail, $100 per barrel Brent prices simply cannot be sustained and carry considerable downside in that eventuality. 

But the market remains in the land of geopolitical risk premiums that are hitting home harder via spot markets, rather than futures trading levels. 

As for the former point - Trump's new 'diesel deal' with Russia - yours truly discussed the figures related to it in an interview with Barbara Serra on Sky News. 

One thing worth noting here is that people should spare a thought for Europe where the US-Russia move may perhaps come as an economic relief of sorts but wont ease inflationary pressures caused by multiple geopolitical crises. 

In the UK, it is around £2.07 per litre ($2.75) at the pump at the time of writing! European economies are indeed heading for a very tough Q4 2026. On that sombre note, its time to say goodbye for now. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Fueling up a car © andreas160578 / Pixabay. Photo II: Energy Market Analyst on Asharq Bloomberg © Asharq Bloomberg, October 2026. Photo II: Energy Market Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Sky News © Sky News, October 2026. 

Turning to ocean energy at ICOE OEE 2026

Earlier this week, The Oilholic also attended ICOE OEE 2026 - a global event on ocean energy being held in The Hague, Netherlands, whilst in town for another engagement. 

The International Conference on Ocean Energy (ICOE) and Ocean Energy Europe (OEE) joint event, supported by the Dutch Energy from Water Association (EWA), featured a conference programme with several technology and policy content streams. 

These were accompanied by networking events and site visits to key Dutch ocean energy sites and companies. The Oilholic viewed it as a great opportunity to meet key stakeholders in the ocean energy sector from the industry and supply chain firms to startups, research fellows to those leading corporate innovation and development.

The event offered a glimpse of "watts in the water" and how the various forms of ocean energy can potentially be amplified in service of a rapidly electrifying world. The discourse touched on the wider offshore energy ecosystem and inter-organisational collaboration that's shaping the next generation of clean ocean energy across tidal, wave and other marine energy applications. 

In a nudge to the hosts, delegates also got a showcase of research and the real-world impact of initiatives in South Netherlands.

Alongside these wide-ranging discussions, two analysis strands stood out for this blogger. The first one being pragmatic discussions on the commercialisation of ocean energy technologies and the various avenues under consideration to go down the cost curve.

Indeed, many attendees offered (and presented) approaches and strategies to reduce cost at every stage of the design and project development process of what are unsurprisingly big ticket projects.

The second one was the use of AI in ocean energy and deployment of digital twins. Real sea demonstrations are pretty complex and capital intensive projects in often intimidating operating environments. It is why the capacity to accurately model and predict how a system will behave is extremely valuable. That is where AI is proving to be pretty handy. 

ICOE OEE 2026 discussed these very AI solutions being deployed today in ocean energy to support modelling, develop predictive digital twins, and ultimately reduce operational costs and improve ocean energy devices.

Away from the dialogues and networking with industry peers, yours truly also took time out to visit the event's exhibition floor. This year's expo drew in nearly 40 exhibitors from the UK to Canada.

To round up an exciting few days of discussions, here's a parting thought from ICOE OEE 2026 - with, of course, the caveat of the investment climate attached - research suggests the tidal stream energy market carries an estimated global resource of 800-1,200 Twh that could replace nearly 13% of the world's fossil fuel powered electricity generation! Let's see where that ship sails. 

But that's all from The Hague for now folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: An ICOE OEE 2026 showcasing session in The Hague, Netherlands, October 5, 2026. Photo II: Marine energy technology on display at ICOE OEE 2026. Photo III: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at the ICOE OEE 2026, October 7, 2026 © Gaurav Sharma, October 2026. 

Talking industrial cybersecurity at the ONE Conference

Greetings from The Hague, Netherlands, where The Oilholic is just rounding up a visit to the ONE Conference, a leading annual cybersecurity event, organised here with due emphasis on energy and industry. 

With artificial intelligence, internet of things, cloud computing, big data and automation now a big part of the inexorable march to industrial throughput optimisation, cybersecurity is at the heart of operational considerations. 

Unquestionably, given the world we live in, hostile actors are after that very digital estate the global industrial complex now takes for granted. At the ONE Conference, The Oilholic took heart from the fact that many energy and industrial firms said they'd gone from a reactive to proactive mode on cybersecurity, as complacency is unthinkable given the reputational, financial and safety implications of a breach. 

Willemijn Aerdts, Minister for the Digital Economy and Sovereignty, The Netherlands, got the event going in an opening keynote emphasising the need to build resilience given how crucial digitalisation and AI are "for innovation, economic growth, security and prosperity."

"Together with our European partners, we will therefore invest in infrastructure, technology and resilience. We will also build digital governance that is reliable, accessible and efficient. 

"This will reduce unwanted dependence on foreign players and strengthen our strategic position," she added.

Aerdts said the time to act and collaborate is "now" and invited "everyone to the solutions room." 

That ever evolving solutions room at The ONE Conference had a diverse cast of characters from cybersecurity providers and developers to ethical hackers. The event explored a range of cybersecurity solutions, industry training programmes predicated on the "trust but verify" philosophy, risk management, and this blogger's favourite - the concept of malware vaccines, i.e. using and deploying the techniques malware uses for self-preservation to turn the tables on attackers. 

Delegates discussed how all of these would need to be brought into play as the boundary between cybercrime and state-sponsored cyber operations get blurred, geopolitical tussles worsen and the global energy sector's AI-surge continues. 

Speaking on a panel, Matthijs van Amelsfort, Director, National Cyber Security Centre, The Netherlands (NCSC-NL), said that intertwined with preventative measures and technologies, cooperation between domestic and international agencies also needs to be stepped up.

Jessica Conquet, Global CISO of Randstad, said organisations and companies need to have a clear communication plan to avoid panic in the event of the breach, and a culture of notifying the relevant authorities in the first instance of an attack and not hold back due on account of embarrassment.

Miguel De Bruycker, Director General of the Centre for Cybersecurity Belgium, called for stronger "EU-US cooperation" based on mutual respect and a shared desire "to secure cyberspace." He also said Europe risks falling behind and must adopt a more pragmatic approach instead of an overt focus on regulation. 

Away from the ONE Conference's dialogues and deliberations, yours truly also took time out to visit its expo of 30-plus exhibitors and catch-up with the many security startups attending the event. 

Finally, The Oilholic also paid a visit to meet the movers and shakers at the event's tried and tested "capital area" where start-ups meet private and public organisations to discuss funding, subsidies, and venture investments. So, after another great outing here - its goodbye from the ONE Conference. More market musings to follow from the Hague soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: The ONE Conference 2026 in The Hague, Netherlands. Photo II: Willemijn Aerdts, Minister for the Digital Economy and Sovereignty, The Netherlands addresses the ONE Conference. Photo III: The ONE Conference Expo. Photo IV: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at the ONE Conference 2026 © Gaurav Sharma, October 2026. 

Visiting ADNOC's panorama digital command center

Last week, whilst on a business trip to Abu Dhabi, the Oilholic had the pleasure of visiting ADNOC's headquarters for meetings, and view the group's Panorama Digital Command Center. 

Local media describe the center as ADNOC's new age "mission control" hub. The last time this blogger visited it was back in 2019 when functionality was just being built in and embedded across the enterprise, and amplified in a phased manner. 

The Panorama Center of 2026, now fully functional, aggregates real-time information from across all of ADNOC Group’s 14 subsidiaries and joint venture companies. Yours truly got a demonstration of how it uses smart analytical models, AI, and the power of cross-enterprise big data to generate operational insights and recommendations. 

It was explained how at any given point in the business cycle Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Group CEO of ADNOC, and the leadership team can access this data from a device remotely. This access to real-time data and analysis provided by the facility enables simulations and scenario planning, and plays an important role in business continuity. 

Business disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and the Iran War earlier this year, have put the system to test which came out with flying colours. It has added billions in business value in challenging and stable climes alike. 

In a broader sense, the center effectively acts as ADNOC's digital "eyes on the ground" and enables speed, accessibility, and integration across operations, a spokesperson added. So, what exactly are we talking about here?

According to team ADNOC, the center aggregates anywhere between 200,000 and 250,000 live data points from across the business and its subsidiaries from over 55 operating sites - both onshore and offshore. 

The system tracks end-to-end ADNOC activities across its upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. 

It can provide data right down to individual equipment layers like compressors, key business parameters like energy consumption monitoring, flaring metrics, inventory levels, and even data on ADNOC's global maritime fleet of LNG and bulk carriers. Scenario planning, predictive maintenance, and optimising product feed quality from daily up to longer operating horizons are all very much part of the equation. 

If this blogger may add - it is also quite a sight to behold with a 50 metre-long curved screen split by over 120 granular dashboards. The dashboards feed and project group-wide information. This is also accessible via portable devices for key personnel (as mentioned earlier). 

The center uses Schneider Electric's hardware and software, including its subsidiary AVEVA's open management infrastructure and unified supply chain platforms. For context, their wider industry potential was put to readers of this blog in 2024 by the SE unit's CEO Caspar Herzberg. 

Meanwhile, ADNOC continues to invest in its digital transformation and AI (e.g. smart data analytics Thamama Subsurface Collaboration Center, AI-assisted value chain modeling, rock image pattern recognition, and and blockchain-based hydrocarbon accounting, to name a few). Further updates on investments are expected at ADIPEC 2026 in November.

So, dear readers if you imagined a multi-billion dollar energy enterprise being managed from a single room with live data streaming in - that's no longer a future fantasy. It's happening here and now! The Oilholic's thanks to Team ADNOC for giving one another glimpse of it. That's all for now from Abu Dhabi folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photos: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at ADNOC's Panorama Command Center in Abu Dhabi, UAE © ADNOC Group, September 2026.

A word on oil tanker rates

As the third quarter of 'crude' year 2026 nears its end, oil tanker rates have bounced by several multiples. In many cases, rates saw a 1000% jump compared to pre-Iran War charters and bids. And it seems $1 million-plus rates for VLCCs are all the rage. 

So, what has materially altered for such a drastic rise to happen with rates at their highest ever since the start of the Iran War on February 28? Well, for starters, it is (and remains) a market that's very news sensitive, and tanker prices are up not just due to geopolitical risk premiums but inefficient ship-to-ship transfers, longer journey times, and rising insurance costs. 

This very topic was the subject of the Oilholic's market commentary on CNA in an interview with Roland Lim. 

One's take is that while $1 million rates for VLCCs may hold over the very short-term, the situation is unlikely to last and may change pretty fast in a volatile environment.

Let's say any solution, however imperfect, is found for the crisis in the Middle East - a glut beckons six months on based on current announcements on global tanker capacity additions, currently running into billions of dollars. But for now the tanker party rolls on. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on CNA. © CNA, September 2026.