Monday, August 24, 2026

Back to a "highest since July" oil market

Another month of uncertainty in the Middle East has resulted in another round of wild price swings in the oil market, and often heard quips of Brent and WTI futures having hit their highest since July. That was literally just a month ago. 

US President Donald Trump's latest move is to hit Iran economically. With all else failing to resolve a safe and certain passage of energy (and other) cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, and major regional exporters like Saudi Arabia and UAE exploring alternative transit routes, focus of the White House has now turned to crippling Iran's economy intertwined with its energy industry via non-military means. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the latest move as "an economic D-Day" and "the single greatest financial offensive ever" - the full details of which will follow over the coming weeks. Given the limited range of options available to bring a swift end to the tension, such a long shot is worth a try, even if the Islamic republic's capacity to ride it out and pass on the hardship to its people is pretty well documented. 

Meanwhile, the oil market is learning to live with the diplomatic deadlock of the past few months following on from the breaking out of hostilities on February 28. It has become a sort of a 'perma-crisis' or a permanent crisis as risk premiums subside only to rise again, and more of the same.

In recent weeks we have seen crude oil cargoes continue to move under the cloud of geopolitical uncertainty largely along the Omani coastline. Various data aggregators indicate the figure may be somewhere in the region of 9-10.5 million barrels per day. Now, even if taken at the upper end of the range, that's still only around half of the volume noted in February. 

As such the domino effect of all this will continue to be felt by the global market with elevated and volatile prices. But that hit is nowhere near the three-figure levels seen at the height of the conflict in March and April. 

Using Brent as a benchmark as the time of The Oilholic posting this blog - oil futures are trading down 0.6% on last week, up 6% on last month, down 3% on the past three-months but up 33% on last year, as trading on daily developments becomes the order of the day. Expect more of the same for now. 

That's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015.

Thursday, August 06, 2026

Speaking and moderating at Gastech 2026

Delighted to announce that The Oilholic will be speaking and moderating at Gastech Exhibition & Conference 2026 in Bangkok, Thailand, from September 14 to 17.

Explore the event's exciting agenda here


The year's event will serve as a vital platform for progressing the global energy agenda amid rising demand, accelerating electrification and growing energy security challenges. 

Convening ministers, CEOs, policymakers, investors, technologists and myriad industry movers and shakers, Gastech's multiple conference streams will address the partnerships, investments and strategic actions required to enhance resilience, secure supply and drive sustainable economic growth. 

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting old friends from the industry and making new ones. Register here as a delegate and join The Oilholic, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Bangkok this September. 

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Digital banner courtesy of dmgevents, August 2026.

Wednesday, August 05, 2026

On deep tech startups in the Munich-Dresden corridor

Markus Bohl, CEO of Ignite Next (right)
with Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma,
in Munich, Germany.
For much of the year, the Oilholic has been researching how emerging deep tech startups in the energy and industrials space appear to find a natural home in Germany's Munich-Dresden corridor. 

This concluded with a Forbes feature on the subject available here, should you wish to read it. The initial focus of the research was on purely on the Munich's startup ecosystem. 

But scale-up and mentoring experts Markus Bohl and Alois Eder - the co-founders of Ignite Next - were pretty instrumental in convincing yours truly that Dresden should figure in the mix too, as part of an innovative 400 km-wide corridor. 

For context, Ignite Next helps startups connect, work and scale-up with multiple partners across a broad range of frontier technologies, from semiconductors, photonics, advanced manufacturing, robotics and artificial intelligence, through to quantum computing. Bohl and Eder believe the Munich-Dresden region provides the ideal setting for it. "The overarching idea has always been to give founders direct access to technical expertise, market insight, and investor readiness support in a wider deep tech ecosystem that we’re all a part of in Munich and Dresden," Bohl added. 

Quite frankly, as The Oilholic noted in the Forbes feature, the numbers speak for themselves. Munich remains the primary driver of valuation in Germany - outside of Berlin - securing around the €3 billion ($3.5 billion) mark in raises per year, with a total registered startup enterprise value of over €101 billion ($115 billion), according to Dealroom data.

That’s over a fourth of the combined enterprise value of all VC-backed German startups founded since 1990. The market in Dresden operates on an intertwined scale that’s a fifth smaller than Munich’s each year, but one that’s highly targeted.

As the region marches onwards and upwards, over a fourth of these startups describe themselves as energy, industrial, clean technology or zero-carbon mobility outfits and consider themselves to be increasingly instrumental in driving a Europe-wide "energiewende" or energy transition as their numbers continue to rise. 

(Left to right) Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma, Kevin Berghoff, CEO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, Alois Eder, CTO of Ignite Next and Fleming Bruckmaier, CTO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, at the company's laboratory in Munich.

Via the good folks at Ignite Next, the Oilholic also met the founders of a couple of these startups. The first was Proxima Fusion, who's CEO Francesco Sciortino explained how his energy startup is developing commercial nuclear fusion power plants. 

Its core offering banks on commercialising "stellarator-based" magnetic confinement fusion technology. So far it has raised over €200 million ($230 million) in equity and grants. In simple terms, a stellarator is a fusion power device that confines plasma using external magnets.

And the second was Quantum Diamonds, a startup developing atom-sized quantum sensors carrying the potential to "redefine" measurement in various high-tech industries like semiconductors, according to CEO Kevin Berghoff. 

Both Berghoff and fellow co-founder Fleming Bruckmaier, also invited The Oilholic for a fascinating and informative tour of their laboratory and operational site in Munich, where their team is attempting to commercialise synthetic diamond-based quantum sensors with nitrogen-vacancy centers to provide non-destructive, high-resolution magnetic imaging of semiconductor chips. In today's fraught geopolitical climate that'll probably be deeply appreciated. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! Sincere thanks to Ignite Next, Quantum Diamonds and Proxima Fusion for their time for The Oilholic's wider research into the region, and here's wishing them all every success for the future. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Markus Bohl, CEO of Ignite Next (right) with Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma. © Ignite Next, June 2026. Photo II: (Left to right) Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma, Kevin Berghoff, CEO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, Alois Eder, CTO of Ignite Next and Fleming Bruckmaier, CTO and Co-founder of Quantum Diamonds, at the company's laboratory in Munich, Germany. © Quantum Diamonds, June 2026.

Monday, August 03, 2026

UK's ill-thought 'tech education reboot' for 14-year-olds

Last week, the latest occupant of 10 Downing Street Andy Burnham - the UK's sixth Prime Minister since David Cameron left office in 2016 and the Labour party's second - came up with what he wants British voters to believe is a clever education policy. 

But in truth, it appears to be a pretty stale, ill-thought and repackaged one associated with his predecessor Keir Starmer. 

So, here's the backstory in case you haven't heard - on Monday, July 27 the egregious Burnham - UK PM, media anointed 'King of the North' and former Mayor of Manchester - declared: "From today Britain will value the hard hat as much as the graduation cap."  

Under his "new" instituted "fundamental changes" to the UK education system, Burnham said 14-year-olds will be able to get "early access" to technical education, skills training, work experience and connections with employers. But upon deeper examination, it falls apart as political claptrap. 

For starters, there's a glaring lack of originality as the announcement's own first footnote states: "Most secondary schools already offer some form of technical qualification, but the PM’s new plan will boost quality, availability and status of the offer."

There appears to be no clarification on how or what would be different - just a lukewarm, vague, political rehash of what Starmer said in 2025 and changed nothing! But fanboys and girls from the media to the Labour party were promptly sent out to regurgitate that the move is some sort of a profound change which it isn't, accompanied by cheesy, cringy videos featuring Burnham himself.

The announcement also contains little to no clarity on funding. Even British teaching bodies and unions are flummoxed, to put it mildly, in their pursuit of some differentiators. At least the UK Labour party's members of parliament - many of whom posted same lauding soundbites in 2025 - can copy and paste them with minor edits.

Here's The Oilholic's bit of repurposing of what yours truly said in 2025 from his own observations as an energy and industry analyst and those of widely known industry stakeholders. Of course, it is great to prioritise other educational routes that break the norm! Germany has done so better than most. But they start it at 15 going on to 16 post-secondary school.

At 14 and secondary school, its about firming up the basics in English, mathematics, core sciences (especially chemistry and physics), geography, etc. if technical pathway is one of their liking. The chosen year is NOT ideal at all in The Oilholic's opinion.

Intertwining it with future employment prospects of 16 to 24-year-olds or NEETs ("Not in education, employment or training") matters. Yet, the root cause of alarmingly high UK youth unemployment isn't necessarily that young people don't have the skills - rather the British macroeconomic climate of the past two years that has clobbered the appetite of business and industry to hire, right down to the Labour party's "policy gems" and related factors such as: 

  • Dogma-driven national insurance and minimum wage hikes without any thought process on their impact on the ability of businesses to hire. 
  • A draconian employment rights act largely drawn up by people who have never run any business or industry but think they can preach and lecture those who do. 
  • Businesses and industries up and down the UK face the highest commercial energy prices among major developed nations. Yet, the Net Zero man behind it all - former Energy Secretary Ed Miliband - is now prancing around the world clocking taxpayer supported airmiles as the country's Foreign Secretary.
  • There is widespread deindustrialisation in the UK with only four operational refineries (ExxonMobil Fawley, Phillips 66 Humber, Valero Pembroke and Essar Stanlow) down from six in 2024 when the Labour party came to power, and ten in 1997. That alone gives a flavour of opportunity and capacity decimation in the engineering and industrial value chain of the UK. 

Contrary to Labour's claim, such economic losses along with those from over-taxed UK offshore exploration and production, will likely not be replaced by new green industries within and beyond the energy spectrum - and remains a headcount improbability even with subsidy support. So, no amount introduction of technical and industrial subjects taught at 14 will reverse things if there's a diminishing core industrial and commercial base for the youth to turn to for employment.

Burnham's move - if you can call it at that given all that's come with it are waffly and vacuous soundbites - will do nothing to assuage fears of a lost generation because as an economy the UK is staring at lost industries and purpose.

Most Labour PMs from Clement Attlee to Tony Blair, typically began their time in office offering a vision of the future. But Burnham started his in July by offering multiple, garbled, made-for-media, and often contradictory "visions" looking backwards, like a sample meant to test public opinion and focus groups to gauge its shelf-life. This "policy" is / will be no different.

Finally, if it's so groundbreaking - with no plan or extra funding attached - Labour party and Burnham should subject it to proper scrutiny which has been sadly and unsurprisingly lacking. And alongside it remains a lack of understanding that vocational education does not mean giving up on the academic side especially at the age of 14. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Downing Street, London, UK sign © paulbloch / Pixabay, Aug 2017.

Thursday, July 30, 2026

That 'other' oil and gas market risk to fret about

Earlier this week, fuel shortages in Russia brought that 'other' geopolitical risk for the oil market into sharp focus - the Russia-Ukraine War that's been raging since 2022. 

That's after attacks by Ukraine on Russia's energy infrastructure caused chaos at the country's pumps impacting 35% of the Russian population. 

This is festering wider discontent as Ukrainian attacks literally hit peoples lives from the pump to the supermarket. Additionally, the lack of service at the pumps in Moscow, which is also facing shortages, is a prestige issue. That's why Siberian volumes are being redirected to the capital. It has led to some levels of improvement.

Ironically, what has also improved the situation temporarily over the past week is Ukraine's own internal disagreements on what to target in Russia, and some attacks have shifted away from refineries and fuel depots to other economic targets. They will return.

So, where is all this going? Issue here for the Kremlin is that the statistics are quite damning. For the Russian government there is not a single region of the country, including the capital, that hasn't been impacted by the fuel shortages. 

This is astonishing for a country of Russia's size with a population of 143 million people. President Vladimir Putin's response would / is proving to be hard to predict. 

Perhaps it's 50:50 in terms of escalating the conflict in a more hardline way or latching on to US President Donald Trump's offer of mediating some form of peace with Kiev. But based on past form, Putin is not known to give in to pressure. 

The energy market and indeed the world are truly in uncharted waters as this profound geopolitical crisis of our age festers on in the background while the world frets over the US-Iran debacle.

This was the subject of yours truly's latest interview on TRT World's Roundtable program with host Enda Brady. Here's the link to the full broadcast should you wish to view it. But that's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Fueling up a car © andreas160578 / Pixabay, Mar 2017. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on TRT World on July 27, 2026 © TRT World, July 2026.