Crudely blockading the blockaders

The Middle East crisis and Iran War have quite frankly taken a turn for the bizarre. 

That's after talks between the US and Iran broke down in Islamabad over the weekend, and global markets were greeted by President Donald Trump's announcement that the US navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. 

The key maritime artery has been the subject to threats of a virtual closure from Iran since hostilities began on February 28. 

A fragile ceasefire agreed last Tuesday - for peace talks - holds for now, but for how long and to what effect? So, are the Iranian blockaders being blockaded by the Americans? That's what its looking like for now. 

The US blockade took effect at 15:00 BST with Iran saying it would not surrender under threats, and US Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Tehran of "economic terrorism."

As the drama took another intraday turn, Brent and WTI futures again came near to touching $100 per barrel before falling back. But the physical market is leading the futures market in attracting a spot premium of $20 to $44 per barrel at key trading hubs in Asia, according to sources. 

Speaking at a forum in Washington DC, US on Monday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted crude oil prices will remain high and possibly keep rising until the Strait of Hormuz opens up. He added that prices will hit their peak sometime in the next few weeks before declining. 

"But once the conflict ends, and energy starts flowing again, you'll start to see downward pressure. That will take some time," he said. We all await that day Sir, but right now it seems pretty elusive. 

Meanwhile, as the crisis continued, so did the Oilholic's commentary on the global airwaves with the BBC World Service radio's Newshour programme, Al Jazeera English and India's NDTV News evening bulletins on Thursday and Friday. 

It is yours truly's belief that both equity and the energy markets jumped the gun a bit when the announcement of the ceasefire came nearly a week ago. 

The vague ceasefire between US and Iran has given Tehran flimsy excuses to continue to subject maritime traffic - including a fifth of the world's crude oil - to threats.

Or, in Iran's convoluted logic, a $2 million toll per crossing. Not only is this contrary to international law, Oman - with whom Iran shares the maritime border of the Strait and wishes to share the revenue with - wants no part in it. The international community therefore needs to rally and intervene but the situation remains fragile and uncertain.

Furthermore, as the Oilholic has recently noted - a risk premium of at least $10 per barrel is going to stay baked in until the remainder of the year, even if peace were to prevail tomorrow. We are long way away from that. Meanwhile, the disconnect between the futures and physical markets, and the inflationary pressures of high oil prices will continue. 

That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: White House, Washington DC, US © PublicDomainPictures / Pixabay, February 2012. 

The 'crude' day after the night before!

It's the day after the night before when the Iran War threatened to escalate even further. Instead, we ended up in a contentious ceasefire between the US and Iran, with divergent views on what it entails or doesn't. 

For Iran, the ceasefire includes the stoppage of the bombardment of Lebanon by Israel and not just its territory, but according the US and Israel that isn't the case. 

Iran implausibly claims the US has agreed to all of its demands. The US claims Iran has agreed to all its, and that victory was theirs. And apparently, the Strait of Hormuz is completely open but also not open and faces restrictions given whose word to take. Iran also wants to charge a toll for Strait of Hormuz transits in partnership with Oman, while the latter is rubbishing the idea! 

Meanwhile, Israel continues to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and all warring parties concerned have rushed to declare victory in a war that still appears far from over. Reports of Iranian drones and Israeli missiles also continue to hit the wires. 

As the world pours over differing versions of a supposed 10-point plan for peace being discussed by the US and Iran, unable to ascertain who is or isn't fudging the list, the Oilholic's trading sources in Singapore suggest there's still severe stress in physical market. A tight tug for currently available crude oil barrels continues. 

By some accounts, that amounts to as much as a $20 per barrel premium to Brent in Asian spot markets. So, this isn't over yet and the overnight ceasefire might just be a brief stoppage between further military skirmishes interspersed with tough negotiations. That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

Notes on a 'see-how-it-goes' crude market

As we enter the sixth week of the Iran War, extreme levels of volatility continue to persist in the oil futures market. As a recap, given how things stand at the time of publishing this blog, Brent is up by around 6% on the past five sessions, 20% on the month, and 80% from three months ago. 

With huge price fluctuations and swings on each social media post, insult, threat or potential morsel of de-escalation from Washington and Tehran, price modelling and guestimates are proving very difficult to work on. 

As the Oilholic said in a recent interview on the BBC, this is very much a 'see-how-it-goes' market, with a risk premium baked in even if the crisis were to end tomorrow, and one marked by severe oil shipping 'deliverability issues' caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Here's more on those deliverability issues in yours truly's latest op-ed for Forbes and why WTI futures traded at a premium to Brent last week. The Brent-WTI spread turned on its head on Thursday (April 2) with the global benchmark Brent trading at a discount to its US counterpart for the first time in four years and only the fifth such instance since 2010, as Asian buyers queued up to pay a premium for non-Middle Eastern crude, with a sizeable volume of it coming from the states. 

Overall, the economic pain of all this volatility is being acutely felt in emerging Asian markets, particularly reliant on Middle Eastern crude. 

We have tales of four-day working weeks being introduced from Pakistan to the Philippines, several Asian air carriers (e.g. AirAsia, Cathay Pacific, Korean Air, Air India, etc.) raising passenger surcharges and fuel buying restrictions in various markets. 

All of this is coming to Europe pretty soon if this continues, and perhaps in some ways already has if consumer sentiment surveys are anything to go by. As for a potential end of the conflict coming sometime soon with a fresh threat / deadline from US President Donald Trump - this blogger would say that a six-week conclusion from Feb 28 has been widely discussed around the market for some time now. 

It's the time it would take for West African or American crude cargoes to arrive in Asia (double of what it typically takes a Middle Eastern tanker to get to Singapore) to relieve short-term pressures. Can it happen? Will it happen? Iran and the US may be far apart but the channels of communication are certainly open. 

On the latest escalation and de-escalation with Tuesday's deadline from Trump both WTI and Brent are down by around 2% to 5% at 22:48 pm BST, with WTI's premium still intact. So, the only thing to (still) say here is - we'll see how it goes.

That's all for the moment folks in these crazy times for the crude market. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Oil pump jack building blocks model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous © BBC, March 2026. 

That's a wrap! Closing out CERAWeek 2026

The final day of another CERAWeek has ended, bringing the proceedings to a close.This year's event was held under the cloud of a profound crisis for the global energy market - the Iran War. 

Understandably, quite a lot of the dialogues were dominated by geopolitics, and the impact of the conflict on oil and gas supply and demand, economic shocks, and how it will all perhaps end. 

Throughout this week, oil (and gas) prices swung wildly and the Brent front-month futures contract seesawed up and down. Such volatility also turned the conversation towards the impact of the current market on much needed investment in all forms of energy. 

The crisis a deep one for the oil markets as various heads of industry discussed, but perhaps an even deeper one for the global LNG. On the latter point, here is the Oilholic's op-ed for Forbes on how the disruption may upend the LNG market, and on the former point, here's one on why many worry the full impact of the Iran War may not yet have been fully priced into the oil market. 

Another interesting point to emerge from this year's CERAWeek was potential for demand destruction, in particular for LNG, serviced by the twin polar opposite energy sources - coal and renewable energy, with desperate Asian markets turning to both. 

As with any crisis to the upside (or downside), many got talking about how technology can be a great leveller not just in improving efficiencies for energy production but also playing a major role in reshaping the whole sector as it invests in its future.

On that note it's goodbye from Houston folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: CERAWeek 2026's signage © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.  

CERAWeek's Innovation Agora goes mega

The Oilholic took some time out to visit CERAWeek's Innovation Agora programme today - the event's - marketplace of ideas on energy innovation and emerging technologies. 

Yours truly remembers that nearly a decade ago, both the displays and talks would fit within half a hotel foyer, often with ABB's Yumi robot (or 'co-bot' as the company called it at the time) at the centre of it all. 

Things look and feel very different for the programme these days, and particularly so at CERAWeek 2026. Agora proceedings now practically occupy a whole floor at the George R. Brown convention centre adjacent to the event's venue - Hilton Americas in Downtown Houston. 

According to the organisers S&P Global, this year's Agora will have 420 sessions, nearly 900 speakers, over a fourth of whom are from start-ups, and 66 partners. The dialogues are "dedicated to advancing solutions to the greatest challenges facing our energy and environmental future" and exploring new pathways "for lower emissions, affordability and reliability."

The nine key themes for this year happen to be AI and Digital, Electrification Technologies, The Innovation Ecosystem, Managing Emissions, Low-Carbon Fuels and Mobility, Climate and Sustainability, Chemicals and Materials, Investment and Financing and Workforce Strategy. 

Agora has pulled in technologists, VCs, investors and corporate innovators to hobnob with startups in ever greater numbers, very much like any energy technology conference yours truly has attended. 

The Oilholic went from listening to Microsoft executives discussing energy AI to JOGMEC experts talking about pathways for blue hydrogen in the US, and much else in between, earlier this afternoon. 

This blogger can only see the event grow bigger as the years roll on. More musings from Houston soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: CERAWeek 2026's Innovation Agora programme © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.