Introducing The Critical Mass Show at CERAWeek

 

The Oilholic has spent decades covering energy markets and wears many hats as the readers of this blog may already know. At CERAWeek 2026 - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global - yours truly is delighted to announce that he's now going deep on nuclear too!

Last month, the Oilholic launched a new show - available in both podcast and webcast formats - to explain why nuclear matters, where the narrative is wrong, and what the industry actually looks like from the inside.

The aptly named Critical Mass Show takes you from the heart of nuclear energy to the frontlines of geopolitics, and dives deep into the trends, catalysts, and power players driving the uranium market.

Through sharp, informed discussions with industry leaders and experts, yours truly, the show's team and its wonderful guests uncover the hidden stories and the big picture dynamics in a space that’s becoming impossible to ignore. 

The show's first three guests include Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association, Ashutosh Shastri, Master Fueller, The Worshipful Company of Fuellers, UK and Lucian Pugliaresi, President of at Energy Policy Research Foundation, Washington D.C.

These conversations are just getting started. They will soon feature several industry experts yours truly connected with at CERAWeek 2026 who will soon appear on the show recorded from its studio in London as its exciting journey continues. So, watch this space on Apple podcasts, Spotify and YouTube, and welcome to the Critical Mass Show folks. It would be a privilege to have your company. 

Sincere thanks also to uranium.io for sponsoring the show and supporting thoughtful discussions in a space that deserves more depth. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. Video: Critical Mass Show Promo © https://critical-mass.io/

Geopolitics dominates opening day at CERAWeek 2026

The Oilholic is back in Houston for another CERAWeek - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global. This year's event is taking place at a time of the most profound crisis in the energy market as the US, Israel and Iran trade missiles, drones, barbs, and more. 

Unsurprisingly, the conflict that began on February 28 dominated the discourse on day one of the global event. Many industry insiders the Oilholic spoke to lent further credence to the belief that the war will likely not last longer than six weeks. That date would be April 9 and we aren't that far from it. So, assuming peace is restored on the date or thereabouts, where next for the oil price?

Conversations with traders confirm, the Oilholic's own modelling in that eventuality - a baking in of a minimum 10% premium for the remainder of 2026. That's because even if peace arrives to the region tomorrow, it will take months to restore production. 

Which, for a market that was staring at a pre-war surplus, will now see supply constriction last for much of the year. The premium of that dynamic would be reflected in Brent prices till the end of the year. 

Speaking at the event, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted Asia would be worse off, but said the Trump administration would increase the volume of its crude supplies heading to the region. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth reflected what many have been saying here in Houston that the Iran War has not been fully priced into the oil market. 

Meanwhile, addressing the event via video link, Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Group CEO of ADNOC, said weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz was "economic terrorism" against every nation and this sentiment is being reflected across the global economy. Here's yours truly's full report on the morning's proceedings from day one of CERAWeek for Forbes. 

Elsewhere, there was another interesting development that made attendees sit up an take notice. The US Department of the Interior and TotalEnergies announced an agreement on Monday for the company to redirect capital from "expensive, unreliable offshore wind leases toward affordable, reliable natural gas projects that will provide secure energy for hardworking Americans."

As part of the agreement, TotalEnergies has committed to investing approximately $1 billion - the value of its renounced offshore wind leases - in oil and natural gas and LNG production in the United States. Following the French major's "new" investment, the US will subsequently reimburse the company dollar-for-dollar, up to the amount they paid in lease purchases for offshore wind. Additionally, TotalEnergies has pledged not to develop any new US offshore wind projects.

“This agreement is yet another win for President Donald Trump’s commitment to affordable and reliable energy for all Americans,” said US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. 

“Offshore wind is one of the most expensive, unreliable, environmentally disruptive, and subsidy-dependent schemes ever forced on American ratepayers and taxpayers. We welcome TotalEnergies’ commitment to developing projects that produce dependable, affordable power to lower Americans' monthly bills while providing secure US baseload power today—and in the future.”  

For his part, Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, said: "We are pleased to sign this settlement agreements with the DOI and to support the Administration’s Energy Policy. Considering that the development of offshore wind projects is not in the country’s interest, we have decided to renounce offshore wind development in the US, in exchange for the reimbursement of the lease fees. 

"Furthermore, these agreements, under which we will reinvest the refunded lease fees to finance the construction of the 29 Mt Rio Grande LNG plant and the development of our oil and gas activities, allows us to support the development of US gas production and export. These investments will contribute to supplying Europe with much-needed LNG from the U.S. and provide gas for US data center development. We believe this is a more efficient use of capital in the US."

It's started off with a bang folks, but that's all for now. More musings from Houston to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: CERAWeek 2026 signage. Photo II: US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum (left) and Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies at CERAWeek 2026 © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. 

As the energy crisis escalates - a view from Hong Kong

The Oilholic has wound up what can only be described as a fruitful, productive, busy, analytical, critical, conversational, argumentative and very frantic week of energy market research out in Far East, rounded off in Hong Kong. 

With the Middle East crisis now past its second week and not (yet) showing signs of easing, near-term implications and geopolitical tussles are becoming fairly apparent.

One look at the newspaper headlines over the past week in this part of the world saw claims of air passenger surcharges hike by regional carriers creep up from 35% to 100%. That's unsurprising, given jet fuel has spiked 140% and rising since the crisis began. 

Overall, the near-term inflationary impact of the oil price spike (currently seesawing either side of $100 using Brent as a benchmark) would likely be bigger in Asia, outages of LPG will play a bigger role in the Indian subcontinent, while the absence of Qatari LNG - triggering a highest bidder takes all mentality in global LNG markets - would hit Europe the hardest. Of course, it is bad news all around in general. 

Most in Asia are preparing for near-term inflation based on the logic that the conflict would end in four to six weeks. That's a punt most traders appear to have taken based on The Oilholic's conversations in Singapore, Tokyo as well as here. But beyond that all bets would likely be off. 

Few other chains of thought also emerged over the course of the past week. First, people in this part of the world are surprised over the complete lack of leadership from Europe during such a profound crisis. Most here see the Europeans as sniping from the sidelines so far. 

Secondly, no one buys that China is only unhappy with the US and Israel for having started the crisis. Beijing is equally miffed with the Iranians. While public condemnation for Israel and US has been coming since the start of the war, on Wednesday, China also directly criticised Iran for disrupting global crude supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, something it had been doing via private diplomatic channels. Whether or not, Iran's oil is reaching China won't move Beijing. Iran only services a small portion of China's demand bulk of which is met by other Gulf producers whom Tehran is bombing. 

Thirdly, how does it all come to an end? The answer to that isn't terribly clear just yet, but US attacks on Iran's oil exporting hub Kharg Island as a warning, an offer of both insuring or escorting energy cargoes in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing allies to join in the effort to safeguard shipping shows the White House is pushing things towards the "business end" of the conflict. 

Of course, should all of this come to a conclusion or some ceasefire of sorts be achieved say within six weeks from the starting date of hostilities on February 28, it will take better parts of another four to six months for global energy flows to normalise. 

The Oilholic discussed these various permutations in interviews and market commentary with the BBC and TRT World while out in Hong Kong. Yours truly also spoke on an Energy Connects webinar with fellow panellists Joe McMonigle, President & CEO of Global Center for Energy Analysis and former Secretary General of International Energy Forum (IEF), Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst, Wood Mackenzie, and Chiranjib Sengupta, Editor-in-Chief of Energy Connects. And then rounded-off the week by speaking in a podcast with Gulf Intelligence. 

These are trying times indeed. The global economy is facing a geopolitical and military crisis that may upend the energy market over the near-term, cause medium-term ripple effects and perhaps bake a $5-10 barrel risk premium in oil prices for the remainder of the year, even after the current crisis ends. 

On that note, it's time to bid goodbye to Hong Kong and Asia Pacific for now. It was great to be back in the region. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: A view of Hong Kong from Victoria Peak © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, energy market analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, speak on the BBC, March 11, 2026. © BBC, March 2026.

On batteries, energy storage and IPOs in Hong Kong

The Oilholic arrived in Hong Kong from Singapore on Tuesday, took a break from market commentary on the Middle East crisis to head straight to The Battery Show Asia 2026. 

It is the world's leading battery exhibition and conference, that was held here from March 10 to 12 at the city's AsiaWorld-Expo, near the airport. 

The event - co-located with Energy Storage Asia and Mobility Tech Asia - offered wide-ranging access to new markets for industry participants both large and small, cross-sector synergies, and high-value partnerships. It saw over 20,000 delegates and speakers - present company included - from 130-plus countries. 

Alongside the content agenda spread over three days was an exhibition with over 350 exhibitors. What really impressed the Oilholic was the level of engagement across the entire energy storage, battery solutions deployment and recycling value chain. 

Many industry facets were examined at the event, including a detailed examination of how the past year turned out. And the figures are pretty interesting. 

In 2025, global annual capacity additions exceeded 100GW while the cost of lithium-ion battery pack dropped below $110/kWh. 

Additionally, looming large over the market is the dominance of one nation - China - which held just around 55% of all global capacity additions last year. 

The market valuation - in US dollar terms - is pretty compelling too, and growing. Deploying various methodologies, major industry aggregators put the global battery energy storage system (BESS) market to have been in the range of $30-$50 billion in 2025. The Oilholic would say that even the lower end of that range points to a rapid China-led expansion. 

As a special administrative region (SAR) of China and one of the world's leading centres of finance, Hong Kong is a major industry enabler with plenty of battery storage and technology related initial public offerings (or IPOs) making their mark on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 

That's why yours truly headed to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, upon the conclusion of the event on Thursday, to discuss the emerging direction of travel in some detail. 

In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market delivered a standout performance with nearly HK$ 300 billion (US$38.5 billion) raised across 100 listings, marking the strongest year in terms of funds raised on the HKEX since 2022. 

This sterling performance put HKEX at the top of the global IPO list, with both US exchanges second and third, and the National Stock Exchange of India and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, securing the fourth and fifth places, respectively.

In a complete contrast, London dropped out of the top 20 managing only five IPOs and had a catastrophic year after falling even below post-financial crisis 2009 levels. A decent part of HKEX's outstanding performance was driven by battery storage and technology firms, something that's clearly reflected in the data, and the conversations the Oilholic has held over the past three days in Hong Kong. 

Here is detailed report on the subject for Forbes. Have a read. As always, feedback and pointers are most welcome. Also, here is another one of this blogger's Forbes features following an interview at The Battery Show Asia with GRST - a firm that's proposing a unique water-based battery recycling solution for the industry. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: The Battery Show Asia 2026 in Hong Kong. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at The Battery Show Asia 2026. Photo III: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Central District, Hong Kong. © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.

A 'crude' view from Singapore as oil hits a crazy patch

As the Middle East crisis rages and the global oil market rides a roller-coaster, the Oilholic has headed out East to Singapore - Asia's energy gateway - to find out what contacts here make of the latest turmoil. 

Here's a view of tankers in the waters off Singapore from this blogger's flight - British Airways BA 11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport - as it was coming in to land on Monday. 

It is a customary sight that greets visitors to the City-state. For context, Singapore is a vital link between Middle Eastern crude producers and the high demand centres of Asia. It is among the world's top three trading hubs and has a refining capacity of 1.5 million plus barrels per day with the Jurong Island petrochemical complex at the heart of it all. 

It is also the world's largest bunkering port for marine fuels supplying close to 55 million tons per annum based on data from various industry aggregators. Virtually, every major oil and gas firm has trading operations here, including energy behemoths from India to the UK. 

And Singapore also happens to be a leader in building high-end FPSO - or Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading - units and jack-up rigs. All-in-all, there simply isn't a better place to gauge the market mood in Asia than Singapore, and that mood has turned sour pretty rapidly since the crisis began.  

As yours truly was making his way from London to Singapore, the Brent front-month futures contract hit $100+ per barrel before retreating back to the $90s (on US President Donald's Trump's latest quip on Iran), and Brent-WTI differential came down to sub-$4 at one point. 

Where is all this going in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East is what's worrying the industry here. True there is a lot of non-OPEC, non-Middle Eastern crude out in the market, but for high-demand Asian economies - the Middle East remains its main supplier, and for many the only supplier of crude. 

For several Asian buyers supply restrictions from the Middle East are a source of huge anxiety. According to S&P Global Platts data, the region accounts for nearly 60% of all crude oil and petrochemical feedstock to Asia, with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq being the leading exporters in that order. 

Sourcing from elsewhere is both "problematic and expensive" says one market source. Geography lays bare the expensive bit of that. In normal circumstances, it takes 21 to 28 days from oil from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz to reach China. By comparison, West African or American crude takes 42 to 56 days to reach a comparable Chinese hub. 

Furthermore, you can't just put a new crude configuration or another type from elsewhere in a snap - the problematic bit. That's because the cracking or processing points - as they are known in the industry - for separating crude oil into its various products, need to be adjusted. 

Here's a BBC World Service explainer the Oilholic contributed to a few months back when the Venezuela situation erupted. These are troubling times for many in Asia who can't turn elsewhere and don't have the resourcing diversity that China and India have. 

Two indicators - and rather clear ones too - happen to be that high sulphur bunker fuel delivered in Singapore has risen by over 40%, while jet fuel has risen by 140% (currently trading around ~$230 per barrel) since the conflict began. 

Yours truly will continue to monitor what the coming days greet us with, but that's all for now folks. Next stop is Hong Kong. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Tankers off Singapore as seen from British Airways flight BA11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport on Monday, March 9, 2026. © Gaurav Sharma 2026.