Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs

Oil futures have taken a heavy pummelling in the wake of the so-called Trump Tariffs right down to four-year lows. That's after President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports to the US, and much higher rates of up to 50% against dozens of countries. 

With major manufacturing centers in Asia on the President's tariffs list published on April 2, both Brent and WTI front-month futures subsequently shed over $10 per barrel or 14% from the price they were trading at the day before the announcement.  

The extreme volatility has brought WTI down below $60 per barrel and Brent shy of $65. A modicum of market calm is unlikely in the short-term, more so as the President has vowed further tariffs against countries (e.g. China) who chose to retaliate. Indeed, there is relatively little to be bullish about oil at the moment. 

In fact, the Oilholic argues via an op-ed in Forbes that bearish sentiment was already entrenched in

crude markets heading in to the second quarter of 2025, before the President's move amplified it. 

So even when the tariff din subsides, it may be wise not to expect an overshoot past prices noted prior to Trump crude shock. (Here's more.)

Yours truly also offered his analysis on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, noting that the road ahead for crude markets will likely be very, very choppy thanks to uncertain demand in China, doubts over the performance of the global economy and lower levels of consumer confidence in key markets. The full interview (dubbed in Arabic) is available here. 

There's heavy uncertainty all around from the commodities market to equites, with real fears of an international trade war and a global recession. So, how much of a drag it turns out to be on near-term oil prices is anyone's guess. Oil futures will remain hostage to Trump's next move. 

Away from crude matters, the Oilholic also published his latest Energy Connects missive on the global digital economy being powered by natural gas for decades. Here's more, have a read on why all those hyperscale datacentres simply cant be powered by renewable energy alone for a good few decades if not more. 

Well that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV channel © Asharq Business, April 2025.

Meeting French billionaire entrepreneur Mohed Altrad

Mohed Altrad (left), French entrepreneur and founder of multinational services and equipment firm Altrad Group, with Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, at Altrad Sparrows training centre in Tyrebagger, Scotland, UK. 

Earlier this month, the Oilholic headed some 550 miles north from London to Tyrebagger Hill, on the outskirts of the UK's energy capital Aberdeen, for a very special meeting with an extraordinary entrepreneur - none other than Scaffolding King Mohed Altrad. 

Yours truly's meeting with one of France's most famous and fascinating industry captains had the backdrop of a Liebherr BOS 2600 offshore pedestal crane capable of lifting 15,000 kg loads, at the Altrad Sparrows training centre. It happens to be one of the entrepreneur's many businesses, and one he acquired as recently as 2022. 

The serial entrepreneur happens to be aggressively expanding Altrad Group's already substantial presence in energy services across the sector's value chains and commissioned projects, from refineries to offshore wind farms, from marine to LNG. 

Read the Oilholic's latest Forbes exclusive for more on his business, its beginnings, and Altrad's inspiring journey here. 

His company's headline business is split 84% to 16% between services and equipment segments. 

In 2024, the business generated nearly €6 billion (£5.03 billion, $6.52 billion) in revenue. 

Interestingly, almost €1 billion of that was derived from services to the clean energy segments of nuclear, hydrogen and wind, Altrad said. 

The figure may well be taken as Altrad's statement of intent when it comes to supporting a sustainable future, and is expected to rise subject to business conditions, according to the man himself. 

While Altrad Group businesses are also branching out into consulting in their respective areas of expertise, there is very little appetite - as far as the boss is concerned - for branching out into core engineering aspects of energy projects. 

An expansion in the energy services though looks almost certain to continue, both through acquisitions and organically, Altrad told the Oilholic. That's asvthe segment undergoes consolidation in a fiercely competitive operating climate. Overall, a most remarkable encounter. 

That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma (right) with Mohed Altrad at Altrad Sparrows, in Aberdeen, Scotland, UK © TVP Studios / Altrad Sparrows, March 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma (right) and Mohed Altrad in a conversation in Aberdeen, Scotland, UK © Benjamin Romney, March 2025.

Media missives from CERAWeek 2025

With CERAWeek 2025 by S&P Global drawing to a close on March 14, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week out in Houston by having insightful 1-on-1 discussions, panel chats and wider interactions on the global energy mix and where it is heading to. 

All blog entries for CERAWeek may be found here. Yours truly also provided insight to Energy Connects and Forbes throughout the event as detailed below. 

First off, here are one's daily observations for Energy Connects on the first three days of the event:

• US Energy Secretary and oil industry leaders call for a realistic approach to the energy transition, March 11, 2025.
• Energy leaders call the US a prime investment market, March 12, 2025.
• Leading cross-sector executives pledge to triple global nuclear capacity by 2030, March 13, 2025.

And secondly, here go all observations, interactions and interviews from CERAWeek for Forbes:

• U.S. Energy Secretary Blasts Renewables, Vows To Support Oil And Gas, March 10, 2025.
• Guyana’s Buoyant Oil Exports Find Eager Buyers In Europe, March 12, 2025.
• Activist Investor Drives BP To Do ‘Fewer Things, With Higher Returns’, March 12, 2025.
• Practical Decarbonization Solutions Must Be Nurtured, Says MHI Group’s Green Solutions CEO, March 13, 2025.

And that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at CERAWeek 2025 © Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

CERAWeek Days IV & V: Going nuclear & rounding up

The home stretch of CERAWeek did not disappoint. But before Days IV and V got underway, the conclusion of Wednesday (Day III) brought perhaps the biggest talking point of the event.

That's after the World Nuclear Association, anchored a huge group of cross-sector executives to commit to expanding nuclear energy.  

How huge you ask dear readers? Well it counts Google, Amazon, Meta, Occidental and Dow, 14 major global banks and financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, and 140 nuclear industry companies among its ranks. Over 30 countries have also pledged their support.  

The target - a tripling of global nuclear power capacity by 2030, which is currently less than 10% of the energy mix. Here's the Oilholic's full in-depth report for Energy Connects on the development. 

One thing the announcement did immediately do is puncture the fawning over natural gas being the fuel to meet the world's power demands that we'd heard for almost three days of the event. More so, as several tech giants - whose burgeoning hypersonic datacentres natural gas is supposed to power - backed the nuclear announcement.

Away from it all, yours truly took time to meet Dr Hitoshi Kaguchi, Senior EVP, President and CEO of GX solutions, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group. 

Dr Kaguchi's team is busy conjuring up his company's green solutions along their two preferred silos - carbon capture and hydrogen. It was a fascinating conversation, full length of which may be found here on Forbes. 

And there were dialogues a plenty, although some of the conversation was a bit tamer with many of the heavy hitters - sorry to say so - having already come and gone. 

Nonetheless, the bosses of National Grid, Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation, NRG Energy, Edison International and AES Corporation took the dialogue forward on utilities on Days IV and V and how to secure power in our complex world. 

'Crude' conversations were kept alive by a panel on Energy in Latin America with the bosses of Ecopetrol, Tecpetrol, and others partaking in discussions on some of the regional energy transition complexities, and bearing in mind that the global South needs to be included in all discussions. 

And finally, Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who has been at CERAWeek all week, addressed the final day's leadership dialogue on "Alaska and the world." And that's a wrap for CERAWeek 2025. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous (left) with Hitoshi Kaguchi, Senior EVP, President and CEO of GX solutions, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group © Gaurav Sharma 2025.

CERAWeek Days II & III: US market, BP's reset and LNG

Days II & III of CERAWeek 2025 have zipped by with plenty of soundbites, among which (1) fawning over the US as a key energy investment destination, (2) discussions over the LNG market, and (3) BP's reset chatter stood out for the Oilholic.

For much of Tuesday (Day II), all you could hear was how the US had become the prime energy investment market, since the election of Donald Trump as President. Here is your's truly's full report for the day on such quips for Energy Connects. 

Chastened by a near-5% stake by activist investor Elliot Investment Management, BP's boss Murray Auchincloss spoke at CERAWeek to explain his company's reset, a return to oil and gas basics and improving company-wide efficiencies. Click here for one's Forbes piece on Auchincloss' outing in Houston. 

Guyana's President Irfaan Ali came to town as well to touch upon his country's phenomenal growth in crude oil production. Its light, sweet variety of crude it appears is something that European importers simply can't get enough of.

Discourse over the importance of the global LNG market and its role in servicing the world's burgeoning power demand dominated much of Day II too, and spilled over into Wednesday (Day III). 

Many delegates deliberated energy giant Shell's latest LNG demand forecast of a rise by around 60% by 2040, largely driven by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport as well as the impact of artificial intelligence.

The energy major reckons more than 170 million tonnes of new LNG supply are set to be available by 2030, helping to meet stronger gas demand, especially in Asia. 

But it has to be acknowledged that start-up timings of new LNG projects remain uncertain.

The Oilholic also took time out for some key networking receptions and talks on both days. 

The first of these engagements included listening to Indian commodities industrialist and Chairman of Vedanta Group Anil Agarwal, about his fascinating journey and the international collaborations being sought by Cairn Oil and Gas, which his group owns. (See photo above)

It was also an immense pleasure and privilege to join the Women In Energy reception at CERAWeek and learn more about the Power Play Awards by ExxonMobil. (See photo left)

The awards, in their seventh year, celebrate individuals within the LNG and decarbonization value chain. 

As announced by S&P Global Vice Chairman Dan Yergin himself, the nominations for the awards are now open dear readers. The winners are expected be revealed at Gastech 2025 in Milan in September. 

And finally, last but certainly not the least, this blogger also had the pleasure of listening to none other than the inimitable Harold Hamm, Chairman of Continental Resources, about his book, his journey, his company's expansion plans, US political climate and more! (See photo below)

Finally, a bit of a footnote to both days as well - a number of energy bosses, including Hamm, believe that US production would plateau by the end of the decade. 

This group also includes Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips and Vicki Hollub, CEO of Occidental, among others. 

But to quote Lance: "It will be a slow decline beyond 2030. That causes some issues. Market share for OPEC+ starts rising again as US production starts to plateau and demand continues to rise as we think it will over time. 

"But there's a ton of resources in the US. I've never been against this industry in terms of technology because you can always figure out a way to get more resource out of the rock."

And that's all for now folks, more to follow over the coming days. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: CERAWeek Signage. Photo II: Anil Agarwal, Chairman of Vedanta speaks at a Carin Oil and Gas CERAWeek reception. Photo III: CERAWeek 2025's Women in Energy reception. Photo III: Harold Hamm, Chairman of Continental Resources, speaks at CERAWeek 2025 © Gaurav Sharma 2025.