Wednesday, September 18, 2024
Gastech Day I & II: Energy transformation through innovation
Tuesday, September 17, 2024
Gastech 2024 sessions to be hosted by yours truly
The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Houston, Texas, US for Gastech 2024, one of the world's largest energy industry fixtures, being held here from September 17 to 20. Yours truly will be holding three panel sessions and two fireside chats at the event with Hardeep Singh Puri, India's Honorable Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Chris Ashton, Chief Executive Officer of Worley.
The three panels will include distinguished industry thought leaders. Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:
Tuesday, September 17, 2024 @ 12:45 pm CDT
IEW2025: Energy transformation through innovation and investment
With His Excellency Hardeep Singh Puri, Honorable Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India
(Click image to enlarge for details)Tuesday, September 10, 2024
$80 is looking like Brent's price ceiling not the floor
The current market sentiment has sent Wall Street banks scrambling to lower their oil price forecasts and market observers to tone down their demand growth forecasts for both this year and the next. This blogger has long been suggesting that 2024 will end in an oversupply of light sweet crude. But as it appears, the whole market might well be in surplus regardless.
Away from pricing, here's yours truly latest missive for Energy Connects on M&A activity in the sector which appears to be pretty buoyant. Looks like the low price climate has seemingly narrowed the buyer-seller disconnect.
More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Tuesday, September 03, 2024
Up close to world's 'strongest land-based crane'
It can routinely lift components of up to 3,000 tons - roughly the weight of six Airbus A380 super-jumbo aircraft - to a height of 220 m. It utilizes 4,200 tons of ballast to lift with a maximum ground bearing pressure of 30 tons /sq m.
Naturally for a crane of such a record-breaking capacity, it has to be ginormous and it is. Yours truly saw the gleaming red structure from nearly a mile away on approach to the Mammoet pilot site. We're looking at a main mast of 127-171 m, a jib length - or the distance between the crane axis and the jib - of 29-95 m and a ballast to mast foot length of 59.2 m.
That is a world where there is constant pressure on project sponsors and engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firms to complete projects safely, on time and on budget or if you wish - with more efficiency, more productivity and through safer operations.
Nuclear, renewable and traditional energy project segments would all welcome Mammoet's latest offering. The company has lined up its first client for the SK6000 "in Asia" with a deployment scheduled at some point in 2025.
In a nutshell, Mammoet believes the SK6000 would enhance the serviceability for refining and offshore new-build and / or maintenance projects in the following ways:
- Its facilitation of modular construction will allow energy facilities to be built simultaneously, in controlled environments that are safer and high-quality.
- It would assist with building in larger components, which shortens the build phase and reduces on-site installation activities.
- The more (and the bigger bits) that can be built off-site, the fewer the connections needed to be made on-site with less testing and fewer working hours.
- And, a combination of the above reduces the time to first energy, and/or reduces the downtime needed to maintain facilities.
All-in-all a very interesting development for the energy EPC segment to watch out for as Mammoet's latest record breaker undergoes final safety and stress testing ahead of its first outing. With those final thoughts, it's time take your leave. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Wednesday, August 21, 2024
Speaking and moderating at Gastech 2024
Delighted to
announce that yours truly will be moderating and speaking at Gastech 2024 in
Houston, Texas, US, from September 17 to 20.
And more on the Oilholic's panels and sessions here.
Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in H-Town.
Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Wednesday, August 07, 2024
Stock market carnage wobbles oil bulls' stance
Saturday, July 27, 2024
Third successive weekly loss for crude oil futures
Wednesday, July 03, 2024
Oil heading to $90, renewables in Japan & more
It's been a hectic few weeks in the energy markets over the course of which oil prices have acquired a bit of buoyancy. Its something they briefly lost last month following the OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude futures currently sit just a few dollars south of $90 per barrel level, having dropped below $80 in early June.
While global crude demand permutations haven't materially altered, there is renewed optimism over lower interest rates in key markets. That and higher demand projections in Asian markets, especially India, appear to be supporting prices. This sets the stall for relatively higher crude prices as we enter the first month of the second half of the year.
All things staying even, the Oilholic would argue there is now a near-term case for $90 Brent crude prices. However, defending price upticks beyond the level would prove tricky, given the fact that crude supplies, especially those of light sweet non-OPEC crude, remain on a solid footing.
This kerfuffle over Japan's future energy mix has been going on since the Fukushima tragedy in 2011, and has been further complicated by readily available and competitively priced LNG.
Japan continues to trail the G7 in terms of renewables. However, while still using coal as a power generation source, Japan is not expanding usage in the same way as India and China are. Overall, a renewables capacity target in excess of 360GW by 2035 looks very ambitious. However, never discount Japanese ingenuity for getting things done!
Elsewhere, here is one of the Oilholic's missives from late June on why the world needs to nurture sustainable entrepreneurship for Forbes (click here), and another one on why green hydrogen's fate in a net zero economy hinges on upscaling for Energy Connects (click here).
Finally, on the eve of the UK's general election, here are this blogger's thoughts on how the outcome will impact the country's energy industry. Regardless of whoever wins, looks like UK Energy Inc may be stuck between a rock and hard place! That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Oil market's OPEC meeting tantrum & global LNG
The figure includes 3.66 million bpd of group-wide cuts and "voluntary cuts" by eight members of 2.2 million bpd. They include Saudi Arabia, Russia and six others - Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates.
The latter cuts were due to expire at the end of June 2024 while the group-wide ones were due to end in December 2024. Following a part-online, part-physical meeting, OPEC+ extended the cuts of 3.66 million bpd until the end of 2025. But it only prolonged the cuts of 2.2 million bpd by three months until the end of September 2024. After which these voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025.
As the markets opened for trading the following, a crude carnage ensued with Brent shattering its $80 per barrel floor and heading lower to $77. While the OPEC+ decision can be construed as bearish, it wasn't the only reason for the slide in prices. As this blogger told Reuters, a number of factors came into play and OPEC's mild surprise merely served as a catalyst. Economic uncertainties persist both in US and China - the world's two leading crude consumers. Neither country offered consistently positive data the month before.
Both the IEA and OPEC have now revised their demand growth forecasts lower, albeit to varying degrees. The IEA's (at 1.1 million bpd) is half of what OPEC now predicts (2.2 million bpd). Traders looked at all that and went net short for the week.
Monday, May 20, 2024
Range-bound crude prices & European majors' antics
What was April's technical support level is proving to be this month's resistance level with oil struggling to cap $85 in a market still searching for a firm direction of travel.
It's doubtful if OPEC+ would be the one to provide direction. The Oilholic's reading of market sentiment is that a rollover of production cuts by the producers' group has been largely priced in by the market.
If China's data remains positive overall, and the second reading of the US Q1 GDP is similarly so, perhaps an uptick in prices may be expected in the second half of the year. However, for now Brent remains in technical backwardation, i.e. the current contract is trading higher compared to one six months or more out. For example, Jan 2025 Brent is just north of $81 at the time of writing this blog.
The oil price isn't too high and it isn't too low at the moment. So if you were OPEC+ why would you make any headline moves on production quotas? Much rather focus on soothing internal tensions for the common cause. Well their common cause, obviously not the consumers'!
Away from crude prices, the European oil and gas majors sang from the same hymn sheet in recent weeks at the release of their quarterly results - offer shareholders higher dividends and announce multi-billion share buybacks. BP, Shell and TotalEnergies were all at it, but the latter two went one step further by professing their love for a primary US-listing in search of a higher valuation.
Here are this blogger's musings on their antics and reasons via Forbes, and Chevron calling time on 55 years of oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Monday, May 06, 2024
All missives from OPTIMIZE24
With OPTIMIZE24, organised by AspenTech, drawing to a close last week, the Oilholic marked a fascinating and engaging week with a number of pieces for Forbes as well as daily blog posts.
Here are the Forbes pieces:
- AspenTech ‘Uniquely Positioned’ As An Optimization Enabler For Global Industries, Says CEO, April 30, 2024.
- Net Zero Goals Intertwine With A Viable Circular Economy, Says Sustainability Tech Expert, May 6, 2024.
And here are all the blog entries for OPTIMIZE24:
- 'Crude' carnage, a crazy April & arriving in H-Town, April 29, 2024.
- Kick-off at OPTIMIZE24 & delving into 'bio-optimization', April 30, 2024.
- 'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24, May 1, 2024.
That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Wednesday, May 01, 2024
'Partnering for the future' at OPTIMIZE24
All that remains is to thank the wonderful Team AspenTech for putting on a fabulous and insightful event in Houston, and for their warm hospitality. Here's to the next installment in the very near future. More musings to follow soon after the flight home to London. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Kick-off at OPTIMIZE24 & delving into 'bio-optimization'
The first day of the event's main program saw attendees from over 50 countries, 20 industries and 100 AspenTech partners who included a veritable who's-who of the energy, manufacturing and industrial complex such as Aramco, Eni, Dow, ExxoMobil, Tennet, Chevron, YPF, OMV and Sabic to name a few.
Leading technology companies, seen regularly at energy events these days, were also in town including Amazon Web Services and Microsoft who partner on the data side with AspenTech.
Proceedings were kicked-off by AspenTech CEO Antonio Pietri who summed up the company's ambitions of being a dependable business partner for those looking to improve throughput, firm up their bottomline, improve margins and lower their carbon footprint - all of which are connected.
Pietri also expressed his enthusiasm for industrial AI as a tool for achieving energy efficiencies, albeit with "guardrails" in place and via a pragmatic approach, in tandem with IIoT and predictive analytics. Ahead of his keynote, the AspenTech also boss kindly spared the time to sit down with the Oilhoic once again, as he has kindly done several times in the past. The resulting and wide-ranging Forbes interview is published here.
Many at the venue were happily prepared to give the Oilholic demos and details of upstream and downstream pilot projects to this effect, as well as their existing deployments.
One key and very interesting theme that made this blogger think was the ongoing re-tuning of the refining complex, which is seeing many European refiners, who once deployed AspenTech solutions to improve efficiencies for the traditional cracking of hydrocarbons, turn to the company's bespoke digital solutions and deploy them produce sustainable bio-fuels. If its a buzzword you seek dear readers - then call it 'bio-optimization'.
Taking in all of its clients global refining optimisation and bio-fuels initiatives, AspenTech claims to have cut 16MT of CO2 emissions in step with $59 billion worth of improved profitability! And on that mammoth refined, or shall we say bio-refined note, its time to bid goodbye for now. We're only just getting started here, so more to follow tomorrow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Monday, April 29, 2024
'Crude' carnage, a crazy April & arriving in H-Town
But first, let's sum up April's 'crude' carnage. The Brent front-month contract has broken its $85 per barrel support level. This wasn't looking likely at the start of the month when prices were lurking well above the level and even overshot to $92 in the wake of the Iran-Israel skirmish. Yet, as the second month of the second quarter of the oil trading year nears its conclusion, the price is barely holding above $83. Why? Well in this blogger's humble opinion that's certainly not because the risk has gone away. The residual risk still persists.
However, with the Iran-Israel tensions having eased and oil sliding from $90+ highs, as trading stumbles into May with (thankfully) no regional damage to energy infrastructure - concerns over demand have resurfaced in a market struggling for direction. On one hand there are still lingering doubts about the performance of China's economy (yes there are) and the general direction of travel for the global economy, while on the other is an overriding sentiment that OPEC will hold firm on its price supportive actions. It what's your truly told Reuters the other day.
Yes, Beijing is indeed importing record amounts of crude oil. But its importation uptick is nothing like it was pre-Covid. And quite a few of the barrels it is importing are being used to boost its strategic reserves. Furthermore, you can count an economy to have motored on in any given fiscal year if its data was consistently pointing to an upswing in economic sentiment, which it clearly isn't in China's case. Hence the doubts.
It appears to be actively positioning for a Brent price that is at least 15-20% higher than pre-Covid levels of around $75, seen at the start of January 2020. That'd be around a $80-$90 - a level that's not too high for buyers, not too low for it and well short of three-figures. It's why a market seeking direction is witnessing the current oscillation, while OPEC is left with plenty of spare capacity.
Away from crude chatter, and on to the happy matter of OPTIMIZE24, an event where the great and the good of the technical and engineering side of energy, industrial, chemical and manufacturing worlds are gathering this week at the behest of AspenTech. This blogger looks forward examining, discussing and learning about the challenges and solutions for the approaching low carbon horizon, and of course joining the dots between improved throughput and meeting emissions targets.
The event's slogan "Partnering for the future" has a nice ring to it. Let's see how it sings over the next couple of days. More from H-Town soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Friday, April 26, 2024
Regular columns for Energy Connects
Dear readers, really excited to share the news that yours truly will now be writing regular opinion columns for global news and analysis platform Energy Connects. The portal, which is a part of the dmgevents portfolio, provides access to an engaged global audience that incorporates the entire energy value chain from oil and gas to wind, solar, utilities, hydrogen and nuclear companies.
The first of the Oilholic's missives is already online here. Do give it a read, and feedback is welcome as always. Looking forward to offering more thoughts and analysis via Energy Connects on a regular basis from hereon.
Delighted to share my first @energyconnects_ opinion piece & looking forward to writing for the title on a regular basis: Transitioning #oil market lays bare forecasters’ divergent assumptions https://t.co/s1YaVosCXV #OOTT #oilandgas #OPEC #IEA #EnergyTransition
— Gaurav Sharma (@The_Oilholic) April 25, 2024
Dive into our latest monthly column on the intriguing world of oil demand forecasting. Is it a science or an art? Uncover the debate and complexities shaping energy transition. #EnergyConnects #energynews #news #OOTT #oilandgas @The_Oilholic https://t.co/jC9MHQfiQW
— Energy Connects (@energyconnects_) April 26, 2024
More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Revisiting 'EcoStruxure' At Schneider Electric's Innovation Summit
But one constant has been the company's relentless development and marketing of its Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) architecture - EcoStruxure - conceived to deliver "smart" automation and digitization solutions within the energy sphere for a plethora of industrial, manufacturing and processing clients.
So it was a pleasure to receive two use case demonstrations of how the product suite is being applied and has evolved since the turn of the decade. For this blogger, the company's EcoStruxure Automation Expert, a software-centric industrial automation system, and EcoStruxure Hybrid Distributed Control System (formerly branded as PlantStruxure PES), a single automation system to engineer, operate, and maintain a plant's entire infrastructure, stood out amidst a sea of solutions and myriad use cases.
And "Digital + Electric = A Sustainable Future" was the simple equation put forward by Herweck for a world facing the complex issue of managing carbon emissions.
Here's a Forbes report summing up Herweck's comments in Paris. It was also revealed at the Innovation Summit that Schneider Electric was driving up its R&D spend from 5.4% to around 8% of headline revenue. The company is also practicing what it preaches by converting key facilities into the very sort of "smart factories" it is recommending to the world, something the Oilholic intends to revisit later down the year.
Commercial power management software and hardware, grid operations software, artificial intelligence (AI) powered monitoring systems, datacenter cooling systems, and electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure displays and demos at the exhibition floor completed an interesting and informative visit.
Or a glimpse of a digitized and electrified horizon, as the company's C-Suites and public relations executives will tell you! And on that note, its time to say goodbye. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Additional note 25.04.24: Here's yours truly's recently published interview with Barbara Frei, Executive Vice President, Industrial Automation at Schneider Electric following a meeting in Paris.