On OPEC's higher output, no peak demand & no access

OPEC's two-day biennial 9th International Seminar came to a conclusion on Thursday after its key voices roundly declared the world simply needed more oil, there was no prospect of peak demand any time soon and denied half the world's scribes an opportunity to forensically question that assertion. 

More on the latter point later, but as The Oilholic noted in an overnight Forbes missive, the Saudi energy minister and de facto OPEC leader Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned against hurting global economic growth and people's "affordability" in the name of energy transition, multiple attendees confirmed to the Oilholic. 

The minister also said Wednesday that as renewable energy sources continue to grow, hydrocarbons will remain “indispensable” in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage keep going.

And on Thursday - the second and final day of the OPEC Seminar - OPEC published its World Oil Outlook report claiming that crude demand will average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. The producers' group expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. To be read as - there's not going to be a peak demand scenario any time soon.

Now speaking of being reliant on third parties and quotes of seminar attendees to bring you these snippets dear readers, you may be wondering what's afoot. Well, for the first time since September 2004, OPEC turned down the Oilholic's request to attend, write op-eds for Forbes and blogs from the seminar.

Yours truly wasn't alone. It also withheld access to a number of global newswires, WSJ and FT, among many others. And for good measure, the event management company was instructed to tell all "non-partner media" journalists that the venue was full to capacity in case they turned up at the registration desk unannounced. 

There's not much one can do about this, but it didn't stop The Oilholic from flagging the goings-on at the event, and meeting and greeting familiar friends and faces from our 'crude' world. 

Still not sure what triggered but if it has something to do with objective reporting and searching questions - that ain't getting compromised folks, not now, not ever!

Non-access also meant that market commentary had to be done offsite, including with Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV. Yours truly discussed Brent crude touching $70 per barrel intraday on Wednesday with Senior Business News Anchor Nour Amache, and why near-term market sentiment was being impacted by lower inventories and anticipated higher summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere.

Furthermore, OPEC may have raised its output, but the hikes have already largely been factored in by traders. So, the move is currently not serving as a drag on prices. However, it would be interesting to note what happens when summer demand tails off, and the fourth quarter approaches with more OPEC+ barrels and hedged US / non-OPEC crude on the market. 

That will likely create a surplus, especially for light sweet crude, thereby potentially driving prices lower. Who knows, it may even convince US President Donald Trump to perhaps top up his country's strategic reserves. It seems we're heading for an interesting second half of the year. 

Well that's all from Vienna folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo I: Gaurav Sharma, energy analyst outside OPEC International Seminar venue at Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Austria on July 9, 2025 © Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma offers oil market commentary on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025. © Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025.

Vienna bound ahead of OPEC seminar

After the latest OPEC meeting follows the producers' group's seminar - its invitation to the great and the good of the energy world held once every two years in Vienna. 

As the Oilholic heads out there for a business trip, while sitting and musing at London's Heathrow airport before the flight, one cannot but help notice that oil benchmarks are on the up. 

That's despite OPEC+'s decision to up production by another half a million plus barrels. The group has effectively unwound nearly 90% of the so-called "voluntary" cuts it brought in back in 2022. Conventional market wisdom would suggest that oil futures would head lower on the development but they haven't. 

That's down to three key reasons. They include: (1) an expectation that the summer driving season in Northern Hemisphere in general, and the US in particular, would absorb the additional barrels, (2) an uptick in attacks on cargoes in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels providing an element of risk, and (3) a belief that quota busting within OPEC+ ranks means many of the additional barrels are not all that additional at all. 

Regardless of where we head to in the very near-term, there is likely to be a surplus and relatively weaker prices as the end of the year approaches. It sets up an interesting second half of the trading year, one, that as things stand, the market bears are likely to win bar another major geopolitical flare-up or a macroeconomic event. 

Well that's all for now folks. More musing from Vienna soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.

Do sub $60 oil prices beckon in H2 2025?

The second half of the current crude oil trading year was ushered in by a larger-than-expected output hike by OPEC+ over the weekend, just ahead of the first week's trades in Asia. The market was largely pricing in a 411,000 bpd hike like the previous month, but got a whopping 548,000 bpd uptick instead. 

The latest addition effectively unwinds nearly 90% of the "voluntary" OPEC+ cuts in place since 2022. Here is the Oilholic's take on it via a column for Forbes. Unmistakably, this is a very bearish development. But it is also a statement of intent that OPEC is more than willing to take the fight to non-OPEC producers in a bid for a higher market share. 

Of course, non-OPEC production - especially that of the US - continues to go from strength-to-strength, at least for now, until production hedges unwind in the next 12 to 18 months. Until then it might well be a buyers' market with likely lower, even sub $60 per barrel Brent prices in a glut-ridden market. 

And speaking of the US, here is yours truly's latest Energy Connects column on how that record high US production has effectively reset the global energy market's risk premiums, as recent events in the Middle East have demonstrated.   

The said events, i.e. the Israel-Iran conflict and the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities by the US, were the subject of The Oilholic's most recent appearance on TRT World's Round Table programme. Escalating tensions brought home long-held market anxieties - about energy cargoes in the Strait being disrupted as well as higher risk premiums - to the fore once again. 

Together with fellow guests on the programme, yours truly discussed why the closure of the Strait would be an act of self-harm for Iran, why Tehran simply won't (and didn't) do it, and ultimately why oil prices failed to hold on to the gains following a cessation of hostilities, courtesy of a well-supplied market and lacklustre demand growth. 

Here's an upload of the broadcast via TRT World's YouTube stream. Have a listen in if interested. Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on TRTWorld's Round Table programme in June 2025 © TRT World, 2025.

Oil market fundamentals return with aplomb

The oil futures slide began even before Iran's muted response to the US bombing of its nuclear sites had ended on Monday. And the benchmarks tanked further still once a ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect in the following session. 

That's because oil market fundamentals took hold the moment de-risking started, evaporating the so-called risk premium double quick. 

Prior to this week's declines, oil futures had risen 20% month-over-month. Those price gains have now almost entirely been lost. And so much so for the outlandish claims that Iran may shut the Strait of Hormuz, which was never going to happen as yours truly noted in a column for Forbes. 

Since the start of hostilities on June 13, the Oilholic has always maintained that if there was a swift end to the conflict - as has been the case - price will fall rapidly again. That's because the market remains well supplied with plenty of non-Middle Eastern, non-OPEC crude from Brazil, Canada, Guyana, Norway, and indeed - the US - still the world's number 1 producer of oil. 

If you believe global oil demand growth for 2025 to be in the region that's just a smidge north or south of 1 million barrels per day, that can be serviced by growth in non-OPEC production alone. And OPEC+ led by the Saudis and Russians is also pumping more in a fight for market share. 

It all points to a market surplus come the end of 2025, especially for light sweet crude. That itself points to oil prices heading lower, perhaps even below $60! Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Crudely heading down uncharted 'dire straits'?

On Saturday night the Israel-Iran conflict, and its domino effect on the world's energy markets, took another twist after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. 

The Americans dropped 14 “bunker buster” bombs against three nuclear facilities in Iran - Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. The move came just over a week on from Israel's own campaign of attacks on Iran's nuclear and military targets began. Inevitably, Iran responded with retaliatory missile strikes of its own on Israel. 

But the latest escalation by the US takes the oil market into uncharted waters (or straits shall we say). Early on in Israel's campaign, many assumed Iran's oil and gas infrastructure would not be attacked. However, that myth was shattered after Israel attacked Shahran Oil Terminal in Tehran, and two natural gas fields that Iran shares with Qatar. 

It hinted at the possibility that the Israelis were in no mood to compromise. Thereafter, oil futures capped the $75 mark, and lurked some 20% above last month's levels using Brent as a benchmark. 

Unsurprisingly, old market chatter that Iran would somehow close or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz has resurfaced, as yours truly discussed in an interview with Germany's ARD Radio 1 on Tuesday while out in the Middle East. 

The Oilholic also discussed the direction of the market with Turkiye's Anadolu News Agency noting that if the crisis persists and / or worsens, crude price points will have to recalibrate to a new normal around $80 per barrel Brent prices. However, if tensions or the conflict are quickly diffused, we could see a drop to $70 or below, as and when more normalized market fundamentals kick in once again.

The Oilholic also subsequently said in a BBC interview on Friday that the very fact we happen to be discussing oil breaching a $80 ceiling and not a $100 one is because the market remains well supplied ahead of the US summer driving season. 

It's also a perception helped in no small part by the Saudis via OPEC+ and a decision by the producers' group to raise production for three successive months. 

It's why the market has priced in a heightened level of near-term hostilities between Israel and Iran in as balanced a way as possible, without succumbing to unfounded conjecture or worse still an actual push toward $100 driven by paper bulls - especially now that chatter about Tehran blockading the Strait of Hormuz is all the rage again. 

So, here's yours truly's take via Forbes on why its something the Iranians have threatened to do since the 1980s, but have in actual fact never done or attempted even once, and remains a highly unlikely prospect despite any chatter of any sort. 

However, Iran-backed Houthi Rebels could make life difficult for energy shipping by resuming their attacks in the other strait - i.e. the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. 

Of course, the Israel-Iran story still has some way to go. But the presence of a lot of non-OPEC oil is keeping somewhat of a lid on things. It's why in the small hours of the morning in Europe, and early morning trading in Asia on Monday, gains in the wake of the attack still remain muted at sub-$80 Brent crude prices. (02:00am BST)

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on BBC News channel. © BBC, June 2025. 

A crude view from Abu Dhabi as oil price spike cools

As the Oilholic hopped across from Doha to Abu Dhabi on Monday it became evident that a further (read dramatic) spike in oil prices was not going to materialize.

It was helped in no small part by a report in the Wall Street Journal claiming that the Iranians - battered by precision Israeli bombing that began on Friday - were keen to get back to the negotiating table to end hostilities and resume discussions over their nuclear program. 

It meant the Brent futures rally slowed quite significantly with the global proxy benchmark sliding below $75 per barrel instead of heading toward $80-levels. The report was met with some scepticism but it needn't have been. 

In fact, informed sources both in Qatar as well as the UAE tell yours truly that Tehran is asking its Arab intermediaries to broker a cooling down of the daily barrage of attacks with much more fervor than the story suggests, provided the US doesn't join Israel in its campaign against Iran.  

Traders took the cue from that, much to the consternation of market bulls. That's because were market sentiment to switch from "Israel is now attacking Iran's oil facilities" back to the negotiating table, normal market fundamentals would start applying, and that would mean even $70 levels would not be worth holding on to. 

More musings to follow soon folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: A view of Abu Dhabi from Qatar Airways QR 1044 © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. 

State of play ahead of heading out to the Middle East

Doubtless you couldn't have escaped an escalation of tensions in the Middle East after Israel attacked Iranian nuclear and military sites early on Friday, and Tehran inevitably responded. 

The two have sparred before including last year. But as yours truly contemplates this - over a pre-departure negroni at a Heathrow Airport lounge ahead of a trip out to the region whilst waiting for BA 123 to Doha, followed by Abu Dhabi for a speaking engagement - something feels different this time around. 

For starters, last time Israel and Iran sparred, the former left the latter's oil and gas infrastructure intact. But that doesn't appear to be the case this time around. Over the last 24 hours, Israel has attacked the Shahran oil depot in Tehran. It has also attacked two of Iran’s gas fields, including Phase 14 of South Pars so far.

This clearly indicates that the Israelis no longer see Iran's energy infrastructure as off limits. Worse may (or may not) yet follow as the Oilholic said in a BBC interview on Friday. 

And here's more detail on some of the potential worst case scenarios for the oil markets in your's truly's latest Forbes missive, including, yes, the not-so-likely-at-all possibility of Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz in a fit of consternation. 

But there will be wider near-to-medium-term implications for the oil market and you can fully expect oil futures to post a(nother) near-term spike next week, especially given Israel's attacks on the Iran's oil and gas sites. 

It is just as well that there is plenty of shall we say non-OPEC, non-Middle Eastern oil out in the market as the Oilholic said in an Al Jazeera interview prior to all hell breaking loose. 

Consumers could well have been looking forward to an easing in prices at the pump were it not for this development. 

Where it goes from here is anybody's guess - but if this calms down, it won't take long for market fundamentals to return and drag oil prices lower! The Oilholic knows it feels a million miles away from there right now, but things can change in an instant because that's the nature of the cyclical volatility of the oil market. 

In the interim, as the old British saying, or shall we say the old adage, goes - Keep calm and carry on! More musings to follow soon folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: A delicious negroni at British Airways First Lounge, London Heathrow Airport © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on BBC World Service © BBC News, June 2025. Photo III: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Al Jazeera English © Al Jazeera, June 2025. 

OPEC+, uptick in crude prices & more

For crude traders, the month of June began exactly the way May did - with another 411,000 bpd production hike by OPEC+. 

The move was almost entirely priced in by the global market. And if anything else, prices actually rose a bit to clawback the ground lost in the wake of the Trump Tariffs kerfuffle in April. 

Overall, the crude price - using Brent as a benchmark - is still down by double digits on last year. 

Of course, there are different opinions out there in the market, but respectfully the Oilholic sees little reason to be overtly bullish on oil prices as things stand. 

Here's yours truly's Forbes post on OPEC's move and its wider implications with another hike - most likely - coming in for August from the producers' group. 

All things considered, with the hedges of US shale players not rolling off for another six months in many cases (and as high as 18 months in the case of some), this blogger expects the market in 2025 to be in surplus. 

Furthermore, as The Oilholic noted in an interview with Asharq Bloomberg Business News last week, this isn't just about OPEC+ versus US shale production. 

The market can (and will continue to) expect additional barrels from Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Norway too. 

On balance, we're looking at an oil market surplus in 2025, especially for light sweet crude. 

This then does beg the age-old question (again) - what about investment in oil and gas in the current market and macroeconomic climate? We're in retreat from the Covid-years of frowning upon oil and gas investments to somewhat of a panic on the need for it to ensure security of supply in the energy transition era.

According to the IEF, around $740 billion a year is needed in investments to the end of the current decade assuming a global demand figure north of 100 million bpd. But in 2024, we didn't even cap $600 billion worth of oil and gas investments. So is the industry investing enough? It's what yours truly asked in his latest Energy Connects column (available here). 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Bloomberg Business News channel. © Asharq Bloomberg Business News, June 2025. 

Crude thoughts ahead of OPEC+ decision

The question some in the oil markets are asking is will OPEC+ hike production again over the weekend for a third consecutive month in a row. The Oilholic is not among them - a hike is most likely coming, quite possibly of the same volume seen in the previous two announcements, i.e. 411k barrels per day (bpd). 

That's because OPEC has quite overtly shifted from defending a price level to protecting its market share, as yours truly said in a BBC interview this morning. For its part, the oil market is pricing this in already and at some point soon - were this continue - sub-$60 per barrel Brent crude prices beckon. 

Some OPEC ministers and others allocating higher production say the market should remain cognizant of rising demand. However, global demand growth is currently just north of 1 million bpd. That can be serviced by non-OPEC production growth alone. 

A glut beckons with plenty of oil in storage on land and on sea, as the Oilholic wrote on Forbes overnight. A group of eight within OPEC+, or shall we say the powers that be led by the Saudis, have so far unwound 44% or 960k bpd of the 2.2 million bpd in cuts announced in 2022. So how far will they go? And what's the stomach for the fight within OPEC's corridors?

Well, we've been here before in 2015-16, when the Saudi minister at the time Ali Al-Naimi attempted to clobber non-OPEC, especially US shale, producers. In the process, both sides ended up inflicting deep flesh wounds but no knockout blows, as oil prices plummeted to $30 per barrel, before recovering. 

Al-Naimi was sent packing into retirement by the Saudi king and the US oil patch suffered investment delays and thousands of job losses, but survived and saw another wave of consolidation. 

Ultimately, both back then and this time around, those contributing to headline US hydrocarbon production are driven by the spirit of private enterprise, not some unified collective like OPEC producers who can collectively hike or cut output. This spirit and agility keeps them afloat at trying times, if not avoid pain. 

Many shale producers are currently hedged at $70+ per barrel levels with the hedges slated to decouple in six to 18 months time. Therefore, the earliest a hit will be noted would be in 2026 to early 2027 when production stateside will likely plateau or start sliding lower. So are we in a prolonged fight for crude market share and will it work in OPEC's favour? Only time will tell. 

But for context, back in the summer of 2016, the US was producing north of 8.5 million bpd despite all the pain in oil patch. In May 2025, as yet another battle for market share commences - in very different circumstances commences - that figure is north of 13 million bpd. Go figure! 

That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon in line with market developments as they happen. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous, on BBC Business Today on May 28, 2025. © BBC News, May 2025. 

What oil price would Trump want for US consumers?

US President Donald Trump makes no secret of his pro oil and gas credentials. It is also widely understood that the President seeks lower crude prices for the American consumer. 

Ideally, US shale producers would prefer oil prices north of $75 per barrel. That isn't exactly low enough for the President. 

Thanks to an uncertain macroeconomic climate, the kerfuffle caused by his trade tariffs and OPEC+ opting to bring more barrels on to an already well supplied market - prices have recently slumped down to $60-65 per barrel. But is that range now low enough for the President? Perhaps not, say many, including global investment bank Goldman Sachs. 

Apparently, after a forensic analysis of the President's social media posts, analysts at the bank have concluded that his preference would be for a $40-50 per barrel West Texas Intermediate range. The US benchmark is trading at ~$3 per barrel discount to the global proxy benchmark Brent at the time of writing.

Quoting parts of a Goldman Sachs report to clients, Bloomberg recently noted it as having observed that Trump's "inferred preference for WTI appears to be around $40 to $50 a barrel, where his propensity to post about oil prices bottoms.” 

He also “tends to call for lower prices (or celebrate falling prices) when WTI is greater than $50,” Goldman analysts added. “In contrast, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI less than $30) often in the context of supporting US production.”

However, for US shale drillers this blogger has spoken to, that range is a tad too low. Many are presently hedged 12-18 months out on $70-plus prices. When the hedges come off, a low price environment will bite. 

But the President has also been very vocal about US energy dominance - or as Goldman analysts note - tweeting nearly "900 times" about it. Clearly he wants US oil inc. to succeed too. So, where would the happy middle ground be between both sentiment tugs? 

Market forces might well decide that, skewing it to one side or the other. The only confirmed thing is the overwhelmingly bearish climate this may all play out in 2025. That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: US flag. © DWilliam / Pixabay, 2015. 

The scramble to lower oil price forecasts

The Oilholic has been on record noting there is little to be bullish about oil at this stage of the trading cycle. Recent events have not only proven this to be the case but amplified the prevailing bearish sentiment.

With OPEC+ determined to ramp up production despite tepid demand and US President Donald Trump's administration resuming nuclear talks with Iran carrying the possibility of a settlement - a bit of a mad scramble to lower oil price forecasts is taking place. 

Banks and brokerages are all lining up to lower their prior forecasts. Last week, Goldman Sachs told clients it now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and around $56 in 2026. Both projections are lower by $2 from their previous level. Goldman Sachs also cut its forecast for WTI crude by $3 per barrel to an average of $56 for the rest of 2025 and $52 in 2026. 

It is by no means alone. Morgan Stanley has also trimmed its oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year. It revised its Brent projection down to $62.50 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of 2025; a downward revision of $5 per barrel from the previous forecast.

Meanwhile, Barclays has cut its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 a barrel for 2026. ING cut its Brent forecast too for the remainder of 2025 down to $62 per barrel from $68.

Citi also cut its three-month price forecast for Brent down to $55 per barrel on Thursday, from a previous estimate of $60 per barrel. It has however maintained the $60 projection for its long-term forecast. And ANZ maintained its already low oil price target over the next three months of $55 per barrel but warned of risks "firmly skewed to the downside."

Away from banks and brokerages, the US Energy Information Administration - statistical arm of the Department of Energy - cut its average Brent oil spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short-term energy outlook published on May 6.

The EIA currently sees the Brent spot price averaging $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026. In its previous outlook published in April, it projected the Brent spot price to average $67.87 in 2025 and $61.48 in 2026.

Expect more downward revisions over the coming weeks unless mildly bullish sentiment returns via a combination of one or more of three developments: (1) US-Iran tensions revert to pre-talks level, (2) OPEC+ reverses course, and/or (3) an easing of US-China trade tiffs unfolds. 

Even in that eventuality, the uptick is likely to pull Brent up to around the $70 mark in the Oilholic's opinion, and well shy of the $80+ levels the bulls crave. Well that's all for now folks, more musings to follow over the course of the month. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs

Oil futures have taken a heavy pummelling in the wake of the so-called Trump Tariffs right down to four-year lows. That's after President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports to the US, and much higher rates of up to 50% against dozens of countries. 

With major manufacturing centers in Asia on the President's tariffs list published on April 2, both Brent and WTI front-month futures subsequently shed over $10 per barrel or 14% from the price they were trading at the day before the announcement.  

The extreme volatility has brought WTI down below $60 per barrel and Brent shy of $65. A modicum of market calm is unlikely in the short-term, more so as the President has vowed further tariffs against countries (e.g. China) who chose to retaliate. Indeed, there is relatively little to be bullish about oil at the moment. 

In fact, the Oilholic argues via an op-ed in Forbes that bearish sentiment was already entrenched in

crude markets heading in to the second quarter of 2025, before the President's move amplified it. 

So even when the tariff din subsides, it may be wise not to expect an overshoot past prices noted prior to Trump crude shock. (Here's more.)

Yours truly also offered his analysis on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, noting that the road ahead for crude markets will likely be very, very choppy thanks to uncertain demand in China, doubts over the performance of the global economy and lower levels of consumer confidence in key markets. The full interview (dubbed in Arabic) is available here. 

There's heavy uncertainty all around from the commodities market to equites, with real fears of an international trade war and a global recession. So, how much of a drag it turns out to be on near-term oil prices is anyone's guess. Oil futures will remain hostage to Trump's next move. 

Away from crude matters, the Oilholic also published his latest Energy Connects missive on the global digital economy being powered by natural gas for decades. Here's more, have a read on why all those hyperscale datacentres simply cant be powered by renewable energy alone for a good few decades if not more. 

Well that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV channel © Asharq Business, April 2025.

Crude prices in tariff war zone as OPEC+ wakes up

Global crude oil markets have taken a bit of a double whammy. First off, US President Donald Trump - a.k.a (perhaps) Tariff Man - is back with... err ..tariffs! Canada, Mexico and China were all (again) in the firing line and (again) retaliated with tariffs of their own against the US. 

As global stock markets plunged, commodity prices took a knock, oil benchmarks slumped as well and then some more. That's because OPEC+ finally woke up to the reality of its production restraint propping up prices as well, as it continues to hemorrhage market share to non-OPEC producers. 

On Monday, with its production already at a one-year high, the producers' group finally decided it had had enough and would start phasing out its 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) voluntary production cut from April. This would be done via monthly increases of 138,000 bpd until the cuts are fully reversed by Q4 2026. 

For clarity, the eight OPEC+ countries - that previously announced these "additional voluntary adjustments" - include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. They were only intending to keep the cuts in place as an interim measure. But kept on rolling the cuts well beyond what they had originally proposed. 

However, overnight they provided a downside surprise to the market when many were expecting another rolling over of the cuts. Before news of the OPEC+ decision arrived, crude prices were already trending lower with Brent and WTI front-month contracts down 3.97% and 3.31% respectively, on the prior week. The double whammy knocked the benchmarks further lower with Brent breaking the $70 per barrel resistance barrier intraday. 

At 18:42 GMT on Wednesday, the Oilholic noted Brent down 2.55% or $1.81 to $69.12 per barrel, while the WTI was down 2.96% or $2.04 to $65.92 per barrel. All indications point to a bearish week at a time when macroeconomic scenarios ranging from uncertain Chinese demand to the threat of global trade wars point to lower crude prices. 

While Trump's moves are often unpredictable, it must be acknowledged that sooner or later OPEC+ would unwind its production. And, so, it has happened! More OPEC+ as well as non-OPEC+ crude may be expected over the near-term tariffs or no tariffs. 

Away from oil, but sticking with Trump, here are yours truly's thoughts in an interview with MarketWatch on Trump's plan to tap mineral wealth from Ukraine, and of course, at home and wherever else possible abroad. 

That's all for now folks, more to follow over the course of the month. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Getting ready for India Energy Week 2025

The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Delhi ahead of India Energy Week 2025 as the world's second-largest of crude oil importer and a leader in renewables opens its doors to the global energy community. 

The week-long event - being held from Feb 11 to 14, 2025 - will showcase India's energy sector and its potential. Yours truly would be speaking and moderating sessions at the event as advised last month.

The venue for India Energy Week happens to be the 100,000 square feet Yashobhoomi Convention Centre near the Indian capital's Indira Gandhi International airport. If you have been out and about town as this blogger has, you can't really miss the event's signage and the buzz created around it from fuel forecourts to shopping malls, transport terminals to state highways leading in to town. 

For background on India's energy sector, should you need it, here are this blogger's thoughts on investment opportunities in the Indian energy sector via a piece on Forbes, and its rising oil demand via a market assessment for Energy Connects. 

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends over an exciting few days in the Indian capital. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in New Delhi. More soon from here. But for now keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma in front of India Energy Week 2025 signage in New Delhi, India.© Gaurav Sharma 2025

Oil spikes as US hikes sanctions on Russia & more

Happy New Year dear readers. Oil trading began on a much firmer footing this month, with Brent capping the $80 per barrel mark for the first time in three months on January 10. 

The global proxy benchmark has pretty much stayed near the mark in the couple of market sessions we have had since, as traders get their first quarter antennae up to gauge the direction of travel. And, of course, factor in recent news of heightened US sanctions on Russia's oil exports.

Many of the curbs target what's described as a "shadow fleet" of ageing non-Western oil tankers that carry Russia's oil. It has sent China and India - two of the biggest buyers of Moscow's black gold - scrambling for alternatives while they work out the situation. 

Extremely cold weather in the North Hemisphere, and an anticipation of tougher sanctions on Iran by an incoming Donald Trump administration are also providing an upside. However, wider market fundamentals have not shifted by much. 

The dollar remains relatively strong, lack of clarity on where China's demand may eventually go this year persists and there is still plenty of non-OPEC oil out in the market to meet global demand growth projections just north of 1 million barrels per day. 

Many are also factoring in higher US production levels in 2025. So the current firmness in Brent prices may prove to be short-lived. 

Away from the oil market, yours truly also discussed Central Europe's natural gas conundrum following Ukraine's new year's eve decision to end Russian energy transit via its territory on CGTN earlier this month. 

Basically, the old continent will need to find around 15 bcm of natural gas from elsewhere, which it can but at a considerably higher cost. (Full interview clip here).

Finally, switching tack to market related political developments, the year has begun with oil rich Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (finally) on his way out of office and an election on the horizon. Meanwhile, incoming US President Donald Trump has caused a stir revisiting his attempt to acquire the resource-rich and strategically important Arctic island of Greenland. 

We're barely a week away from Trump entering the White House with massive implications for the energy market and beyond. And on that note, its time to say goodbye for now. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018. 

Driving home for Christmas... (petrol prices edition)

Season's greetings dear readers. Many of you may be driving home for Christmas and looking forward to the New Year, with perhaps that most famous of Chris Rea songs playing on the radio. 

As you fuel up for the journey ahead, it is now pretty certain the current year and its festive season will end with petrol prices (or gasoline if you wish) at their lowest since 2021. 

That's because crude oil prices are at their lowest for nearly three years too, owing to lower demand (mainly from China), higher supply (largely from the US) and a stronger dollar (courtesy of the US Federal Reserve). 

Here are your truly's observations on the current market permutations via Forbes, and why lower prices may last well in to 2025. 

From a UK perspective, at the time of writing this blog, a litre of petrol would set you back on average by 135p (US$1.70), and sub 130p if you happen to a Costco member. In fact, lower prices at the pump are being replicated across Europe.  

And average US prices are pretty low this festive season as well, with a gallon of petrol going for $3.145 this week, counting in regional fluctuations around the mark. That's $0.83 per litre or 66p - a price, as always, many in Europe can only dream of!

On that note, it's time to take your leave for the festive week. The Oilholic will be back in Jan. And wherever you are driving or travelling to (or not driving or travelling at all), be safe and merry. Here's wishing you all a great Christmas & a Happy New Year! The Oilholic will be back in Jan, after the holidays. 

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Driving in Gloucestershire, UK on December 23, 2024 © Gaurav Sharma 2024.