And that's a wrap from OPTIMIZE 26

OPTIMIZE 26 entered its home stretch on Thursday following a memorable and insightful week out here in Houston. That's as the last of the event's 150+ sessions concluded and gave way to software training days. 

Over the course of an engaging week, the Oilholic had both on and off-record conversations about the energy industry's embrace of agentic AI.

It appears to be the inexorable direction of travel for an industry that's been talking about it quite loudly since 2023. In fact, industrial AI has become routine, and companies are going from reactive to proactive mode. 

AI-assisted recommendations are getting embedded directly into operations. But many executives from ExxonMobil to Versalis, TotalEnergies to Repsol also called for sensible, pragmatic and targeted AI deployment at OPTIMIZE and urged caution on the hype.

To put it in the words of one senior executive - "go for technology initiatives and implementation where there is a real need to create value, not for the sake of it." One such arena is AI-driven asset performance management. 

That's where the latest technology has moved the needle considerably via operators' co-developed solutions with industrial software vendors like AspenTech. Many sessions at OPTIMIZE offered case studies of operator-vendor collaboration resulting in tangible throughput gains for major energy, chemicals and pharmaceuticals plant operators, nearly 2,500 of whom AspenTech counts among its core users' group. 

Over the last 15 months, such collaboration, feedback and software development is what led to the launch of AspenTech's AVA AI earlier this week, with the platform offering "agentic, domain-aware AI capabilities," according to the company's CTO and a name familiar to the readers of this blog - Claudio Fayad.

Alongside his peers and customers, the AspenTech CTO also emphasised on the critical importance of quality data, its gathering, management and governance that underpins AI tools, as well as the multi-billion dollar market for data fabric solutions. 

Speaking of which, here's is yours truly's latest Forbes piece where you can read all about data fabrics. 

"Ultimately, both our customers and us are striving for operational agility based on intelligent software-enabled decision making. The need for this is growing in today's volatile climate where operators face uncertainties on input costs, and various other challenges from interest rates to skill gaps," Fayad noted.

Fayad also said that the cycle of software product enhancements and updates is also getting shorter by each passing year. 

"So, we need to constantly innovate, or shall I say co-innovate or co-develop with process industries. We embrace that challenge and the approaching horizon."

Unsurprisingly, the role and deployment of quality data and AI featured throughout the event's process industries content stream across executive leadership, concurrent engineering, control & optimize, planning & scheduling, manufacturing execution and supply chain management, subsurface science & engineering and asset performance management conference tracks.

And as the end of the week approached, OPTIMIZE 26 drew to a spectacular close with an event finale at Houston's Daikin Park where attendees had a great evening seeing the home baseball team Houston Astros take on the Seattle Mariners.

That's a wrap from OPTIMIZE 26 and Houston folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, May 2026. Photo I: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at OPTIMIZE 26 in Houston, US. Photo II: Claudio Fayad, CTO of AspenTech (left) with Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at OPTIMIZE 26. Photo: Houston Astros versus Seattle Mariners at Daikin Park, May 13, 2026 © Photo: Gaurav Sharma, May 2026. 

Hosting OPTIMIZE 26's executive track & launch of AVA

As OPTIMIZE 2026 entered its second day, yours truly got involved in the proceedings by hosting and moderating the event's Executive Track designed to directly bring in industry C-Suites to discuss the approaching horizon for process industries with their peers.

The first of two topics for the Oilholic's panels was 'Modeling & Optimization: Navigating Uncertainty and Preparing for the Next Generation' with panelists Bharat Newalkar, Head of Research and Development, BPCL, Juan Carlos Ramirez, Value Chain Optimization Director, Repsol, Szabolcs Szabo, Senior Vice President, Value Chain, MOL Group and Vikas Dhole, Senior Vice President, Modeling & Optimization, AspenTech. 

The second panel's topic was 'Unlocking Enterprise-Wide Value with AI' with panelists Leon de Bruyn, CEO, Lummus, Raphael Duflos, Vice President, General Manager Port Arthur Platform, TotalEnergies, Ed Sanderson, Global Lead, Reliability Engineering, Takeda and Heiko Claussen, Chief Technologist, AI, AspenTech. 

The dialogues were on a closed-door basis in a free-flowing and engaging format with plenty of audience participation. While the Oilholic cannot blog about specific points made by the panellists and their audience of industrial technology C-Suites, the discussion largely revolved around deploying AI, strengthening data foundations and scaling optimisation strategies to manage volatility, protect profitability and achieve measurable business outcomes. 

Some candid executive perspectives and practical insights on what it takes to lead – rather than react – in an increasingly unpredictable world were put forward which will undoubtedly come to the fore as the industry continues to innovate.

Speaking of innovation (and, of course, AI), earlier in the day's proceedings, Emerson launched AspenTech AVA - its new industrial scale enterprise-wide AI platform. The company claims it is specifically designed for industries to accelerate AI adoption across the enterprise for measurable business impact. 

A spokesperson told this blogger the platform offers "agentic, domain-aware AI capabilities" with "the agility, efficiency and autonomy companies need to respond faster to operating conditions, continuously improve performance using trusted domain context and act with greater confidence through AI-assisted recommendations embedded directly in operations."

You can have a sample interaction here. 

The developers claim it is all about helping AspenTech customers to find practical ways to apply AI safely and effectively in real operating conditions. 

AspenTech CTO Claudio Fayad told the Oilholic his team have been refining the product for over 12 months prior to launch, embedding Emerson's longstanding industrial expertise and first-principles directly into AVA's operational skills and workflows while leveraging large language models. 

"In doing so, AVA enables companies to deploy the power of generative AI as a trusted operational capability and to build an enterprise operations platform that connects data, context and decision-making across the organization. We believe it provides a practical way to accelerate AI adoption to deliver repeatable, scalable operational impact,” Fayad concluded.

Exciting times folks, let's see where this goes. Here's wishing Team AspenTech well in their efforts. That's all for now, more musings from here to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma moderates a session at OPTIMIZE 26 in Houston, US on May 12, 2026. © AspenTech, May 2026.

'Powering Performance' at OPTIMIZE 26

It's a pleasure, as always, to be back in Houston for OPTIMIZE 26 - the flagship biennial event of Emerson's Aspen Technology business.

This year's event convenes under the core theme of 'Powering Performance.' It also happens to be the first in the series since AspenTech's acquisition by Emerson last year. 

The event has drawn delegates from over 40 countries, 20 industries and will have 150 sessions along two key content silos - process industries (the focus area for this blogger) and power & utilities, alongside an executive leadership track. 

As AI, big data and machine learning become an integral part of the energy and petrochemicals landscape, and talk of agentic AI gets louder, OPTIMIZE 26 is taking place at critical time for the sector, with many movers and shakers in town to discuss a software-led future for their companies. 

On Monday, the senior leadership of AspenTech were joined by many of those for the event's opening keynotes to apprise the industry of their latest efforts, and partnership with the software firm to improve throughput and efficiencies, reduce downtime, bring about predictive maintenance, and more. 

Vincent Servello, President of AspenTech, noted that for much of the process industries landscape, software has become mission critical. 

AspenTech is accelerating it's investment in AI, particularly so in the case of AI-driven asset performance management and the agentic AI environment, he added. 

Servello's remarks set the stall for key industry executives to offer their viewpoints. They included Dylan Pugh, Vice President of engineering at ExxonMobil, Adriano Alfani, CEO of Versalis, Emmanuelle Brechet, Vice President of data technologies at TotalEnergies. 

Servello and the industry executives were flanked by Claudio Fayad, CTO of Aspentech, Heiko Claussen, Chief Technologist, AspenTech and Vikas Dhole, SVP, Modeling & Optimization, AspenTech. 

The AspenTech spokespeople emphasised on leveraging data and software to enhance agility, efficiency and autonomy across industries at a time of rising uncertainties, complicated geopolitics and volatile input costs. 

In a fireside chat with AspenTech President Servello, Pugh of ExxonMobil, touched on why software had become a differentiator but also expressed his thoughts on smart, strategic deployment of it and not opting for AI solutions just for the fear of missing out. 

In an exchange with AspenTech CTO Fayad, Alfani of Versalis explained how software solutions and its partnership with AspenTech helped the company's shift from base chemicals to biochem and circularity at its European assets, where the traditional chemicals segment was proving to be very challenging. 

And in a presentation, Brechet of TotalEnergies, spoke on how software was central to the French supermajor's drive to boost operational excellence, save costs, and reduce emissions. Overall, a great start to the event. That's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at OPTIMIZE 26 in Houston, US. Photo II:  Vincent Servello, President of AspenTech (left) in a fireside chat with Dylan Pugh, Vice President of Engineering at ExxonMobil. Photo III: AspenTech CTO Claudio Fayad (left) with Adriano Alfani, CEO of Versalis. © Gaurav Sharma, May 2026.

Speaking and moderating at OPTIMIZE 26

Delighted to announce that yours truly be speaking and moderating at OPTIMIZE 26 - the flagship event of Emerson's Aspen Technology business - due to be held in Houston, US from May 11 to 14.

The theme for the event is "Powering Performance."

The Oilholic's engagements will include panels and executive dialogues held as part of OPTIMIZE 26's process industries and executive tracks.

Explore the event's exciting agenda here. 

Really looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Houston.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo © OPTIMIZE 26.

Oil jumps (again), UAE quits OPEC, BP's CEO & more

With no end in sight to the US-Iran stalemate and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by both sides, Brent and WTI oil futures have not only stayed north of $100 per barrel this week but traded above $110 and $108 per barrel respectively on Wednesday. 

The market is fast reaching a place where the pricing pain of the crisis could rise even further. 

Physical traders are reporting spot premiums of around $20 per barrel on the prevailing futures prices, while investment banks are predicting fuel shortages and demand destruction at some point in May if a resolution isn't reached soon. 

In the midst of all of this, the UAE announced on Tuesday that it was quitting OPEC, sending ripples through the market.

The decision doesn't come as much of a surprise to the Oilholic given the country's very open desire to pump more oil, monetise it effectively and diversify its economy. 

Nonetheless, the shock factor for the market was definitely there when the news broke. Should the Middle East crisis ease, the UAE's move will help lower oil prices next year. Here are some thoughts on this development via a Forbes op-ed. 

Earlier this month, yours truly also held two very interesting interviews with Mahdi Aladel, CEO of Aramco Ventures and Vincent Servello, President of AspenTech. Click on the respective hyperlinks to have a read should you wish to.

And finally, here are your truly's thoughts via Energy Connects on the appointment of BP new CEO Meg O'Neill, and the possible corporate course she may chart for the energy major.

That's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil pump jack building blocks model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Crudely blockading the blockaders

The Middle East crisis and Iran War have quite frankly taken a turn for the bizarre. 

That's after talks between the US and Iran broke down in Islamabad over the weekend, and global markets were greeted by President Donald Trump's announcement that the US navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. 

The key maritime artery has been the subject to threats of a virtual closure from Iran since hostilities began on February 28. 

A fragile ceasefire agreed last Tuesday - for peace talks - holds for now, but for how long and to what effect? So, are the Iranian blockaders being blockaded by the Americans? That's what its looking like for now. 

The US blockade took effect at 15:00 BST with Iran saying it would not surrender under threats, and US Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Tehran of "economic terrorism."

As the drama took another intraday turn, Brent and WTI futures again came near to touching $100 per barrel before falling back. But the physical market is leading the futures market in attracting a spot premium of $20 to $44 per barrel at key trading hubs in Asia, according to sources. 

Speaking at a forum in Washington DC, US on Monday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted crude oil prices will remain high and possibly keep rising until the Strait of Hormuz opens up. He added that prices will hit their peak sometime in the next few weeks before declining. 

"But once the conflict ends, and energy starts flowing again, you'll start to see downward pressure. That will take some time," he said. We all await that day Sir, but right now it seems pretty elusive. 

Meanwhile, as the crisis continued, so did the Oilholic's commentary on the global airwaves with the BBC World Service radio's Newshour programme, Al Jazeera English and India's NDTV News evening bulletins on Thursday and Friday. 

It is yours truly's belief that both equity and the energy markets jumped the gun a bit when the announcement of the ceasefire came nearly a week ago. 

The vague ceasefire between US and Iran has given Tehran flimsy excuses to continue to subject maritime traffic - including a fifth of the world's crude oil - to threats.

Or, in Iran's convoluted logic, a $2 million toll per crossing. Not only is this contrary to international law, Oman - with whom Iran shares the maritime border of the Strait and wishes to share the revenue with - wants no part in it. The international community therefore needs to rally and intervene but the situation remains fragile and uncertain.

Furthermore, as the Oilholic has recently noted - a risk premium of at least $10 per barrel is going to stay baked in until the remainder of the year, even if peace were to prevail tomorrow. We are long way away from that. Meanwhile, the disconnect between the futures and physical markets, and the inflationary pressures of high oil prices will continue. 

That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: White House, Washington DC, US © PublicDomainPictures / Pixabay, February 2012. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on NDTV. © NDTV 2026.

The 'crude' day after the night before!

It's the day after the night before when the Iran War threatened to escalate even further. Instead, we ended up in a contentious ceasefire between the US and Iran, with divergent views on what it entails or doesn't. 

For Iran, the ceasefire includes the stoppage of the bombardment of Lebanon by Israel and not just its territory, but according the US and Israel that isn't the case. 

Iran implausibly claims the US has agreed to all of its demands. The US claims Iran has agreed to all its, and that victory was theirs. And apparently, the Strait of Hormuz is completely open but also not open and faces restrictions given whose word to take. Iran also wants to charge a toll for Strait of Hormuz transits in partnership with Oman, while the latter is rubbishing the idea! 

Meanwhile, Israel continues to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and all warring parties concerned have rushed to declare victory in a war that still appears far from over. Reports of Iranian drones and Israeli missiles also continue to hit the wires. 

As the world pours over differing versions of a supposed 10-point plan for peace being discussed by the US and Iran, unable to ascertain who is or isn't fudging the list, the Oilholic's trading sources in Singapore suggest there's still severe stress in physical market. A tight tug for currently available crude oil barrels continues. 

By some accounts, that amounts to as much as a $20 per barrel premium to Brent in Asian spot markets. So, this isn't over yet and the overnight ceasefire might just be a brief stoppage between further military skirmishes interspersed with tough negotiations. That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

Notes on a 'see-how-it-goes' crude market

As we enter the sixth week of the Iran War, extreme levels of volatility continue to persist in the oil futures market. As a recap, given how things stand at the time of publishing this blog, Brent is up by around 6% on the past five sessions, 20% on the month, and 80% from three months ago. 

With huge price fluctuations and swings on each social media post, insult, threat or potential morsel of de-escalation from Washington and Tehran, price modelling and guestimates are proving very difficult to work on. 

As the Oilholic said in a recent interview on the BBC, this is very much a 'see-how-it-goes' market, with a risk premium baked in even if the crisis were to end tomorrow, and one marked by severe oil shipping 'deliverability issues' caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Here's more on those deliverability issues in yours truly's latest op-ed for Forbes and why WTI futures traded at a premium to Brent last week. The Brent-WTI spread turned on its head on Thursday (April 2) with the global benchmark Brent trading at a discount to its US counterpart for the first time in four years and only the fifth such instance since 2010, as Asian buyers queued up to pay a premium for non-Middle Eastern crude, with a sizeable volume of it coming from the states. 

Overall, the economic pain of all this volatility is being acutely felt in emerging Asian markets, particularly reliant on Middle Eastern crude. 

We have tales of four-day working weeks being introduced from Pakistan to the Philippines, several Asian air carriers (e.g. AirAsia, Cathay Pacific, Korean Air, Air India, etc.) raising passenger surcharges and fuel buying restrictions in various markets. 

All of this is coming to Europe pretty soon if this continues, and perhaps in some ways already has if consumer sentiment surveys are anything to go by. As for a potential end of the conflict coming sometime soon with a fresh threat / deadline from US President Donald Trump - this blogger would say that a six-week conclusion from Feb 28 has been widely discussed around the market for some time now. 

It's the time it would take for West African or American crude cargoes to arrive in Asia (double of what it typically takes a Middle Eastern tanker to get to Singapore) to relieve short-term pressures. Can it happen? Will it happen? Iran and the US may be far apart but the channels of communication are certainly open. 

On the latest escalation and de-escalation with Tuesday's deadline from Trump both WTI and Brent are down by around 2% to 5% at 22:48 pm BST, with WTI's premium still intact. So, the only thing to (still) say here is - we'll see how it goes.

That's all for the moment folks in these crazy times for the crude market. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil pump jack building blocks model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous © BBC, March 2026. 

That's a wrap! Closing out CERAWeek 2026

The final day of another CERAWeek has ended, bringing the proceedings to a close.This year's event was held under the cloud of a profound crisis for the global energy market - the Iran War. 

Understandably, quite a lot of the dialogues were dominated by geopolitics, and the impact of the conflict on oil and gas supply and demand, economic shocks, and how it will all perhaps end. 

Throughout this week, oil (and gas) prices swung wildly and the Brent front-month futures contract seesawed up and down. Such volatility also turned the conversation towards the impact of the current market on much needed investment in all forms of energy. 

The crisis a deep one for the oil markets as various heads of industry discussed, but perhaps an even deeper one for the global LNG. On the latter point, here is the Oilholic's op-ed for Forbes on how the disruption may upend the LNG market, and on the former point, here's one on why many worry the full impact of the Iran War may not yet have been fully priced into the oil market. 

Another interesting point to emerge from this year's CERAWeek was potential for demand destruction, in particular for LNG, serviced by the twin polar opposite energy sources - coal and renewable energy, with desperate Asian markets turning to both. 

As with any crisis to the upside (or downside), many got talking about how technology can be a great leveller not just in improving efficiencies for energy production but also playing a major role in reshaping the whole sector as it invests in its future.

On that note it's goodbye from Houston folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: CERAWeek 2026's signage © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.  

CERAWeek's Innovation Agora goes mega

The Oilholic took some time out to visit CERAWeek's Innovation Agora programme today - the event's - marketplace of ideas on energy innovation and emerging technologies. 

Yours truly remembers that nearly a decade ago, both the displays and talks would fit within half a hotel foyer, often with ABB's Yumi robot (or 'co-bot' as the company called it at the time) at the centre of it all. 

Things look and feel very different for the programme these days, and particularly so at CERAWeek 2026. Agora proceedings now practically occupy a whole floor at the George R. Brown convention centre adjacent to the event's venue - Hilton Americas in Downtown Houston. 

According to the organisers S&P Global, this year's Agora will have 420 sessions, nearly 900 speakers, over a fourth of whom are from start-ups, and 66 partners. The dialogues are "dedicated to advancing solutions to the greatest challenges facing our energy and environmental future" and exploring new pathways "for lower emissions, affordability and reliability."

The nine key themes for this year happen to be AI and Digital, Electrification Technologies, The Innovation Ecosystem, Managing Emissions, Low-Carbon Fuels and Mobility, Climate and Sustainability, Chemicals and Materials, Investment and Financing and Workforce Strategy. 

Agora has pulled in technologists, VCs, investors and corporate innovators to hobnob with startups in ever greater numbers, very much like any energy technology conference yours truly has attended. 

The Oilholic went from listening to Microsoft executives discussing energy AI to JOGMEC experts talking about pathways for blue hydrogen in the US, and much else in between, earlier this afternoon. 

This blogger can only see the event grow bigger as the years roll on. More musings from Houston soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: CERAWeek 2026's Innovation Agora programme © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.  

Launching Global Autonomous Maturity Report 2026

Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric (left) and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, launch Schneider Electric's Global Autonomous Operations Maturity Report at CERAWeek 2026 in Houston, Texas, US.

As an energy market analyst and media commentator here at CERAWeek 2026, the Oilholic believes it is pretty clear that autonomous operations are no longer a distant ambition — they’re already reshaping the competitive landscape of the global energy and chemicals sector.

That's why yours truly was pleased to contribute to Schneider Electric’s new Global Autonomous Maturity Report which dives into the digital capabilities now defining operational performance in one of the world’s most demanding industries. 

It was launched at CERAWeek 2026 by Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric. Here’s a snapshot of what the research reveals:

• Where regions truly stand on the autonomy curve — and why some markets are quietly emerging as leaders.
• What’s driving the shift toward autonomous technology, from productivity gains to cost resilience and the pursuit of sustained competitive advantage.
• Which technologies matter most, including AI, cybersecurity, edge computing, advanced process control, and the expanding role of software-defined automation.

For anyone looking to understand how autonomy is evolving from concept to core strategy, this report offers timely, data-backed insight.

Read the findings and download the report here: tinyurl.com/4y9hcn4f

More musings from Houston soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric (left) and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst launch Schneider Electric's Global Autonomous Operations Maturity Report at CERAWeek 2026 © Schneider Electric, March 2026. 

Introducing The Critical Mass Show at CERAWeek

 

The Oilholic has spent decades covering energy markets and wears many hats as the readers of this blog may already know. At CERAWeek 2026 - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global - yours truly is delighted to announce that he's now going deep on nuclear too!

Last month, the Oilholic launched a new show - available in both podcast and webcast formats - to explain why nuclear matters, where the narrative is wrong, and what the industry actually looks like from the inside.

The aptly named Critical Mass Show takes you from the heart of nuclear energy to the frontlines of geopolitics, and dives deep into the trends, catalysts, and power players driving the uranium market.

Through sharp, informed discussions with industry leaders and experts, yours truly, the show's team and its wonderful guests uncover the hidden stories and the big picture dynamics in a space that’s becoming impossible to ignore. 

The show's first three guests include Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association, Ashutosh Shastri, Master Fueller, The Worshipful Company of Fuellers, UK and Lucian Pugliaresi, President of at Energy Policy Research Foundation, Washington D.C.

These conversations are just getting started. They will soon feature several industry experts yours truly connected with at CERAWeek 2026 who will soon appear on the show recorded from its studio in London as its exciting journey continues. So, watch this space on Apple podcasts, Spotify and YouTube, and welcome to the Critical Mass Show folks. It would be a privilege to have your company. 

Sincere thanks also to uranium.io for sponsoring the show and supporting thoughtful discussions in a space that deserves more depth. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. Video: Critical Mass Show Promo © https://critical-mass.io/

Geopolitics dominates opening day at CERAWeek 2026

The Oilholic is back in Houston for another CERAWeek - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global. This year's event is taking place at a time of the most profound crisis in the energy market as the US, Israel and Iran trade missiles, drones, barbs, and more. 

Unsurprisingly, the conflict that began on February 28 dominated the discourse on day one of the global event. Many industry insiders the Oilholic spoke to lent further credence to the belief that the war will likely not last longer than six weeks. That date would be April 9 and we aren't that far from it. So, assuming peace is restored on the date or thereabouts, where next for the oil price?

Conversations with traders confirm, the Oilholic's own modelling in that eventuality - a baking in of a minimum 10% premium for the remainder of 2026. That's because even if peace arrives to the region tomorrow, it will take months to restore production. 

Which, for a market that was staring at a pre-war surplus, will now see supply constriction last for much of the year. The premium of that dynamic would be reflected in Brent prices till the end of the year. 

Speaking at the event, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted Asia would be worse off, but said the Trump administration would increase the volume of its crude supplies heading to the region. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth reflected what many have been saying here in Houston that the Iran War has not been fully priced into the oil market. 

Meanwhile, addressing the event via video link, Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Group CEO of ADNOC, said weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz was "economic terrorism" against every nation and this sentiment is being reflected across the global economy. Here's yours truly's full report on the morning's proceedings from day one of CERAWeek for Forbes. 

Elsewhere, there was another interesting development that made attendees sit up an take notice. The US Department of the Interior and TotalEnergies announced an agreement on Monday for the company to redirect capital from "expensive, unreliable offshore wind leases toward affordable, reliable natural gas projects that will provide secure energy for hardworking Americans."

As part of the agreement, TotalEnergies has committed to investing approximately $1 billion - the value of its renounced offshore wind leases - in oil and natural gas and LNG production in the United States. Following the French major's "new" investment, the US will subsequently reimburse the company dollar-for-dollar, up to the amount they paid in lease purchases for offshore wind. Additionally, TotalEnergies has pledged not to develop any new US offshore wind projects.

“This agreement is yet another win for President Donald Trump’s commitment to affordable and reliable energy for all Americans,” said US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. 

“Offshore wind is one of the most expensive, unreliable, environmentally disruptive, and subsidy-dependent schemes ever forced on American ratepayers and taxpayers. We welcome TotalEnergies’ commitment to developing projects that produce dependable, affordable power to lower Americans' monthly bills while providing secure US baseload power today—and in the future.”  

For his part, Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, said: "We are pleased to sign this settlement agreements with the DOI and to support the Administration’s Energy Policy. Considering that the development of offshore wind projects is not in the country’s interest, we have decided to renounce offshore wind development in the US, in exchange for the reimbursement of the lease fees. 

"Furthermore, these agreements, under which we will reinvest the refunded lease fees to finance the construction of the 29 Mt Rio Grande LNG plant and the development of our oil and gas activities, allows us to support the development of US gas production and export. These investments will contribute to supplying Europe with much-needed LNG from the U.S. and provide gas for US data center development. We believe this is a more efficient use of capital in the US."

It's started off with a bang folks, but that's all for now. More musings from Houston to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: CERAWeek 2026 signage. Photo II: US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum (left) and Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies at CERAWeek 2026 © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. 

As the energy crisis escalates - a view from Hong Kong

The Oilholic has wound up what can only be described as a fruitful, productive, busy, analytical, critical, conversational, argumentative and very frantic week of energy market research out in Far East, rounded off in Hong Kong. 

With the Middle East crisis now past its second week and not (yet) showing signs of easing, near-term implications and geopolitical tussles are becoming fairly apparent.

One look at the newspaper headlines over the past week in this part of the world saw claims of air passenger surcharges hike by regional carriers creep up from 35% to 100%. That's unsurprising, given jet fuel has spiked 140% and rising since the crisis began. 

Overall, the near-term inflationary impact of the oil price spike (currently seesawing either side of $100 using Brent as a benchmark) would likely be bigger in Asia, outages of LPG will play a bigger role in the Indian subcontinent, while the absence of Qatari LNG - triggering a highest bidder takes all mentality in global LNG markets - would hit Europe the hardest. Of course, it is bad news all around in general. 

Most in Asia are preparing for near-term inflation based on the logic that the conflict would end in four to six weeks. That's a punt most traders appear to have taken based on The Oilholic's conversations in Singapore, Tokyo as well as here. But beyond that all bets would likely be off. 

Few other chains of thought also emerged over the course of the past week. First, people in this part of the world are surprised over the complete lack of leadership from Europe during such a profound crisis. Most here see the Europeans as sniping from the sidelines so far. 

Secondly, no one buys that China is only unhappy with the US and Israel for having started the crisis. Beijing is equally miffed with the Iranians. While public condemnation for Israel and US has been coming since the start of the war, on Wednesday, China also directly criticised Iran for disrupting global crude supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, something it had been doing via private diplomatic channels. Whether or not, Iran's oil is reaching China won't move Beijing. Iran only services a small portion of China's demand bulk of which is met by other Gulf producers whom Tehran is bombing. 

Thirdly, how does it all come to an end? The answer to that isn't terribly clear just yet, but US attacks on Iran's oil exporting hub Kharg Island as a warning, an offer of both insuring or escorting energy cargoes in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing allies to join in the effort to safeguard shipping shows the White House is pushing things towards the "business end" of the conflict. 

Of course, should all of this come to a conclusion or some ceasefire of sorts be achieved say within six weeks from the starting date of hostilities on February 28, it will take better parts of another four to six months for global energy flows to normalise. 

The Oilholic discussed these various permutations in interviews and market commentary with the BBC and TRT World while out in Hong Kong. Yours truly also spoke on an Energy Connects webinar with fellow panellists Joe McMonigle, President & CEO of Global Center for Energy Analysis and former Secretary General of International Energy Forum (IEF), Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst, Wood Mackenzie, and Chiranjib Sengupta, Editor-in-Chief of Energy Connects. And then rounded-off the week by speaking in a podcast with Gulf Intelligence. 

These are trying times indeed. The global economy is facing a geopolitical and military crisis that may upend the energy market over the near-term, cause medium-term ripple effects and perhaps bake a $5-10 barrel risk premium in oil prices for the remainder of the year, even after the current crisis ends. 

On that note, it's time to bid goodbye to Hong Kong and Asia Pacific for now. It was great to be back in the region. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: A view of Hong Kong from Victoria Peak © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, energy market analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, speak on the BBC, March 11, 2026. © BBC, March 2026.

On batteries, energy storage and IPOs in Hong Kong

The Oilholic arrived in Hong Kong from Singapore on Tuesday, took a break from market commentary on the Middle East crisis to head straight to The Battery Show Asia 2026. 

It is the world's leading battery exhibition and conference, that was held here from March 10 to 12 at the city's AsiaWorld-Expo, near the airport. 

The event - co-located with Energy Storage Asia and Mobility Tech Asia - offered wide-ranging access to new markets for industry participants both large and small, cross-sector synergies, and high-value partnerships. It saw over 20,000 delegates and speakers - present company included - from 130-plus countries. 

Alongside the content agenda spread over three days was an exhibition with over 350 exhibitors. What really impressed the Oilholic was the level of engagement across the entire energy storage, battery solutions deployment and recycling value chain. 

Many industry facets were examined at the event, including a detailed examination of how the past year turned out. And the figures are pretty interesting. 

In 2025, global annual capacity additions exceeded 100GW while the cost of lithium-ion battery pack dropped below $110/kWh. 

Additionally, looming large over the market is the dominance of one nation - China - which held just around 55% of all global capacity additions last year. 

The market valuation - in US dollar terms - is pretty compelling too, and growing. Deploying various methodologies, major industry aggregators put the global battery energy storage system (BESS) market to have been in the range of $30-$50 billion in 2025. The Oilholic would say that even the lower end of that range points to a rapid China-led expansion. 

As a special administrative region (SAR) of China and one of the world's leading centres of finance, Hong Kong is a major industry enabler with plenty of battery storage and technology related initial public offerings (or IPOs) making their mark on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 

That's why yours truly headed to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, upon the conclusion of the event on Thursday, to discuss the emerging direction of travel in some detail. 

In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market delivered a standout performance with nearly HK$ 300 billion (US$38.5 billion) raised across 100 listings, marking the strongest year in terms of funds raised on the HKEX since 2022. 

This sterling performance put HKEX at the top of the global IPO list, with both US exchanges second and third, and the National Stock Exchange of India and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, securing the fourth and fifth places, respectively.

In a complete contrast, London dropped out of the top 20 managing only five IPOs and had a catastrophic year after falling even below post-financial crisis 2009 levels. A decent part of HKEX's outstanding performance was driven by battery storage and technology firms, something that's clearly reflected in the data, and the conversations the Oilholic has held over the past three days in Hong Kong. 

Here is detailed report on the subject for Forbes. Have a read. As always, feedback and pointers are most welcome. Also, here is another one of this blogger's Forbes features following an interview at The Battery Show Asia with GRST - a firm that's proposing a unique water-based battery recycling solution for the industry. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: The Battery Show Asia 2026 in Hong Kong. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at The Battery Show Asia 2026. Photo III: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Central District, Hong Kong. © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.