What oil price would Trump want for US consumers?

US President Donald Trump makes no secret of his pro oil and gas credentials. It is also widely understood that the President seeks lower crude prices for the American consumer. 

Ideally, US shale producers would prefer oil prices north of $75 per barrel. That isn't exactly low enough for the President. 

Thanks to an uncertain macroeconomic climate, the kerfuffle caused by his trade tariffs and OPEC+ opting to bring more barrels on to an already well supplied market - prices have recently slumped down to $60-65 per barrel. But is that range now low enough for the President? Perhaps not, say many, including global investment bank Goldman Sachs. 

Apparently, after a forensic analysis of the President's social media posts, analysts at the bank have concluded that his preference would be for a $40-50 per barrel West Texas Intermediate range. The US benchmark is trading at ~$3 per barrel discount to the global proxy benchmark Brent at the time of writing.

Quoting parts of a Goldman Sachs report to clients, Bloomberg recently noted it as having observed that Trump's "inferred preference for WTI appears to be around $40 to $50 a barrel, where his propensity to post about oil prices bottoms.” 

He also “tends to call for lower prices (or celebrate falling prices) when WTI is greater than $50,” Goldman analysts added. “In contrast, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI less than $30) often in the context of supporting US production.”

However, for US shale drillers this blogger has spoken to, that range is a tad too low. Many are presently hedged 12-18 months out on $70-plus prices. When the hedges come off, a low price environment will bite. 

But the President has also been very vocal about US energy dominance - or as Goldman analysts note - tweeting nearly "900 times" about it. Clearly he wants US oil inc. to succeed too. So, where would the happy middle ground be between both sentiment tugs? 

Market forces might well decide that, skewing it to one side or the other. The only confirmed thing is the overwhelmingly bearish climate this may all play out in 2025. That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: US flag. © DWilliam / Pixabay, 2015. 

Oil shed $10/bbl or 14% week-on-week on Trump Tariffs

Oil futures have taken a heavy pummelling in the wake of the so-called Trump Tariffs right down to four-year lows. That's after President Donald Trump imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports to the US, and much higher rates of up to 50% against dozens of countries. 

With major manufacturing centers in Asia on the President's tariffs list published on April 2, both Brent and WTI front-month futures subsequently shed over $10 per barrel or 14% from the price they were trading at the day before the announcement.  

The extreme volatility has brought WTI down below $60 per barrel and Brent shy of $65. A modicum of market calm is unlikely in the short-term, more so as the President has vowed further tariffs against countries (e.g. China) who chose to retaliate. Indeed, there is relatively little to be bullish about oil at the moment. 

In fact, the Oilholic argues via an op-ed in Forbes that bearish sentiment was already entrenched in

crude markets heading in to the second quarter of 2025, before the President's move amplified it. 

So even when the tariff din subsides, it may be wise not to expect an overshoot past prices noted prior to Trump crude shock. (Here's more.)

Yours truly also offered his analysis on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, noting that the road ahead for crude markets will likely be very, very choppy thanks to uncertain demand in China, doubts over the performance of the global economy and lower levels of consumer confidence in key markets. The full interview (dubbed in Arabic) is available here. 

There's heavy uncertainty all around from the commodities market to equites, with real fears of an international trade war and a global recession. So, how much of a drag it turns out to be on near-term oil prices is anyone's guess. Oil futures will remain hostage to Trump's next move. 

Away from crude matters, the Oilholic also published his latest Energy Connects missive on the global digital economy being powered by natural gas for decades. Here's more, have a read on why all those hyperscale datacentres simply cant be powered by renewable energy alone for a good few decades if not more. 

Well that's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV channel © Asharq Business, April 2025.