Crudely blockading the blockaders

The Middle East crisis and Iran War have quite frankly taken a turn for the bizarre. 

That's after talks between the US and Iran broke down in Islamabad over the weekend, and global markets were greeted by President Donald Trump's announcement that the US navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. 

The key maritime artery has been the subject to threats of a virtual closure from Iran since hostilities began on February 28. 

A fragile ceasefire agreed last Tuesday - for peace talks - holds for now, but for how long and to what effect? So, are the Iranian blockaders being blockaded by the Americans? That's what its looking like for now. 

The US blockade took effect at 15:00 BST with Iran saying it would not surrender under threats, and US Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Tehran of "economic terrorism."

As the drama took another intraday turn, Brent and WTI futures again came near to touching $100 per barrel before falling back. But the physical market is leading the futures market in attracting a spot premium of $20 to $44 per barrel at key trading hubs in Asia, according to sources. 

Speaking at a forum in Washington DC, US on Monday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted crude oil prices will remain high and possibly keep rising until the Strait of Hormuz opens up. He added that prices will hit their peak sometime in the next few weeks before declining. 

"But once the conflict ends, and energy starts flowing again, you'll start to see downward pressure. That will take some time," he said. We all await that day Sir, but right now it seems pretty elusive. 

Meanwhile, as the crisis continued, so did the Oilholic's commentary on the global airwaves with the BBC World Service radio's Newshour programme, Al Jazeera English and India's NDTV News evening bulletins on Thursday and Friday. 

It is yours truly's belief that both equity and the energy markets jumped the gun a bit when the announcement of the ceasefire came nearly a week ago. 

The vague ceasefire between US and Iran has given Tehran flimsy excuses to continue to subject maritime traffic - including a fifth of the world's crude oil - to threats.

Or, in Iran's convoluted logic, a $2 million toll per crossing. Not only is this contrary to international law, Oman - with whom Iran shares the maritime border of the Strait and wishes to share the revenue with - wants no part in it. The international community therefore needs to rally and intervene but the situation remains fragile and uncertain.

Furthermore, as the Oilholic has recently noted - a risk premium of at least $10 per barrel is going to stay baked in until the remainder of the year, even if peace were to prevail tomorrow. We are long way away from that. Meanwhile, the disconnect between the futures and physical markets, and the inflationary pressures of high oil prices will continue. 

That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: White House, Washington DC, US © PublicDomainPictures / Pixabay, February 2012. 

The 'crude' day after the night before!

It's the day after the night before when the Iran War threatened to escalate even further. Instead, we ended up in a contentious ceasefire between the US and Iran, with divergent views on what it entails or doesn't. 

For Iran, the ceasefire includes the stoppage of the bombardment of Lebanon by Israel and not just its territory, but according the US and Israel that isn't the case. 

Iran implausibly claims the US has agreed to all of its demands. The US claims Iran has agreed to all its, and that victory was theirs. And apparently, the Strait of Hormuz is completely open but also not open and faces restrictions given whose word to take. Iran also wants to charge a toll for Strait of Hormuz transits in partnership with Oman, while the latter is rubbishing the idea! 

Meanwhile, Israel continues to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and all warring parties concerned have rushed to declare victory in a war that still appears far from over. Reports of Iranian drones and Israeli missiles also continue to hit the wires. 

As the world pours over differing versions of a supposed 10-point plan for peace being discussed by the US and Iran, unable to ascertain who is or isn't fudging the list, the Oilholic's trading sources in Singapore suggest there's still severe stress in physical market. A tight tug for currently available crude oil barrels continues. 

By some accounts, that amounts to as much as a $20 per barrel premium to Brent in Asian spot markets. So, this isn't over yet and the overnight ceasefire might just be a brief stoppage between further military skirmishes interspersed with tough negotiations. That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

Nearly a week in to the latest Middle East crisis

It's nearly coming up to a week since the latest Middle East crisis began last Saturday, after US and Israeli jets pounded Iran and took out its senior leadership. Tehran retaliated by hitting targets across the region embroiling several oil and gas producing Gulf states in a war that isn't of their choosing. 

The skirmishes continue at the time of writing and the conflict is threatening to spiral out of control. Iran - which physically does not need to close the key maritime artery that's the Strait of Hormuz and actually can't - has threatened to do so. It has spooked both shipping firms and insurers thereby severely reducing transits in the Strait. 

Brent and WTI front-month contracts are above $80 levels, with the former nearing $90 on Friday. Unsurprisingly, the Oilholic has spent the entirety of the week providing client intel and analysis, alongside changing travel plans to the region with air-space(s) shut and media commentary.

Natural gas prices are another matter of concern after Qatar stopped its LNG exports on Monday knocking off 20% of the world's LNG supply. It triggered a jump of over 40% to begin with before calm returned followed by another rise. Prices are higher at the moment but not at Ukraine War levels yet when the initial shock of that event hit the markets and lurked around for much of 2022. 

Switching back to thoughts on the oil price - firstly, the reason we are not yet talking of $150 oil prices (or at least this blogger isn't) is largely thanks to the comfort cushion of non-OPEC crude barrels. Let's not forget that the market was heading for a surplus before the conflict started. Secondly, oil is not just a story of supply but one of demand too, which is looking pretty lacklustre in the run up to the conflict. 

Secondly, what is US President Donald Trump's end goal? Quite possibly, some say almost certainly - regime change - and/or a destruction of both Iran's nuclear programme as well as its ability to militarily threaten the region directly or via proxies like Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Hamas. All of these perhaps cannot be met via an aerial bombardment. 

So where is the crisis going - an achieving of partial objectives and an off-ramp for the warring sides? A prolonged conflict? That's anybody's guess. But right now the market appears to be betting on an easing of hostilities within four to six weeks based on the soundbites from the White House. 

If that happens to be the case, the market bulls currently out in force will enjoy a short-lived outing, and the perma-bulls are unlikely to get much joy. Since last Saturday, yours truly has also been discussing this and much more with publications, radio and television networks including Tagesspiegel, BBC World Service Radio, Energy Connects, Arabian Gulf Business Insights, Radio New Zealand, Al Jazeera English, TRT World and BBC World News. 

That'd be seven days, eight media outlets, discussing where all this is heading to, all alongside modelling and making predictions for clients during an unprecedented global event. 

Overall, the crude oil market finds itself in uncharted waters and a profound geopolitical crisis. But the price risk is at present manageable with OPEC+ currently somewhat of a spectator to what's unfolding. While a prolonged conflict could change that, we are not there yet. 

Should we get there, high oil (and gas) prices would put inflationary pressures on consumers and industries to begin with felt most acutely in Europe and Asia. However, the domino effect would subsequently dent demand and global economic growth. 

We're in for a roller-coaster over the coming weeks. Let's see what the coming days greet us with first. That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo (Top to Bottom): Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, on BBC News (March 6, 2026), Al Jazeera English (March 2, 2026) and TRT World (March 5, 2026). © Copyright courtesy of BBC, Al Jazeera and TRT World, March 2026.