Oilholics Synonymous Report: oil demand forecast 2026

Showing posts with label oil demand forecast 2026. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Oil jumps (again), UAE quits OPEC, BP's CEO & more

With no end in sight to the US-Iran stalemate and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by both sides, Brent and WTI oil futures have not only stayed north of $100 per barrel this week but traded above $110 and $108 per barrel respectively on Wednesday.

The market is fast reaching a place where the pricing pain of the crisis could rise even further.

Physical traders are reporting spot premiums of around $20 per barrel on the prevailing futures prices, while investment banks are predicting fuel shortages and demand destruction at some point in May if a resolution isn't reached soon.

In the midst of all of this, the UAE announced on Tuesday that it was quitting OPEC, sending ripples through the market.

The decision doesn't come as much of a surprise to the Oilholic given the country's very open desire to pump more oil, monetise it effectively and diversify its economy.

Nonetheless, the shock factor for the market was definitely there when the news broke. Should the Middle East crisis ease, the UAE's move will help lower oil prices next year. Here are some thoughts on this development via a Forbes op-ed.

Earlier this month, yours truly also held two very interesting interviews with Mahdi Aladel, CEO of Aramco Ventures and Vincent Servello, President of AspenTech. Click on the respective hyperlinks to have a read should you wish to.

And finally, here are your truly's thoughts via Energy Connects on the appointment of BP new CEO Meg O'Neill, and the possible corporate course she may chart for the energy major.

That's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil pump jack building blocks model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Wednesday, April 08, 2026

The 'crude' day after the night before!

It's the day after the night before when the Iran War threatened to escalate even further. Instead, we ended up in a contentious ceasefire between the US and Iran, with divergent views on what it entails or doesn't.

For Iran, the ceasefire includes the stoppage of the bombardment of Lebanon by Israel and not just its territory, but according the US and Israel that isn't the case.

Iran implausibly claims the US has agreed to all of its demands. The US claims Iran has agreed to all its, and that victory was theirs. And apparently, the Strait of Hormuz is completely open but also not open and faces restrictions given whose word to take. Iran also wants to charge a toll for Strait of Hormuz transits in partnership with Oman, while the latter is rubbishing the idea!

Meanwhile, Israel continues to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and all warring parties concerned have rushed to declare victory in a war that still appears far from over. Reports of Iranian drones and Israeli missiles also continue to hit the wires.

As the world pours over differing versions of a supposed 10-point plan for peace being discussed by the US and Iran, unable to ascertain who is or isn't fudging the list, the Oilholic's trading sources in Singapore suggest there's still severe stress in physical market. A tight tug for currently available crude oil barrels continues.

By some accounts, that amounts to as much as a $20 per barrel premium to Brent in Asian spot markets. So, this isn't over yet and the overnight ceasefire might just be a brief stoppage between further military skirmishes interspersed with tough negotiations. That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!