Crude thoughts ahead of OPEC+ decision

The question some in the oil markets are asking is will OPEC+ hike production again over the weekend for a third consecutive month in a row. The Oilholic is not among them - a hike is most likely coming, quite possibly of the same volume seen in the previous two announcements, i.e. 411k barrels per day (bpd). 

That's because OPEC has quite overtly shifted from defending a price level to protecting its market share, as yours truly said in a BBC interview this morning. For its part, the oil market is pricing this in already and at some point soon - were this continue - sub-$60 per barrel Brent crude prices beckon. 

Some OPEC ministers and others allocating higher production say the market should remain cognizant of rising demand. However, global demand growth is currently just north of 1 million bpd. That can be serviced by non-OPEC production growth alone. 

A glut beckons with plenty of oil in storage on land and on sea, as the Oilholic wrote on Forbes overnight. A group of eight within OPEC+, or shall we say the powers that be led by the Saudis, have so far unwound 44% or 960k bpd of the 2.2 million bpd in cuts announced in 2022. So how far will they go? And what's the stomach for the fight within OPEC's corridors?

Well, we've been here before in 2015-16, when the Saudi minister at the time Ali Al-Naimi attempted to clobber non-OPEC, especially US shale, producers. In the process, both sides ended up inflicting deep flesh wounds but no knockout blows, as oil prices plummeted to $30 per barrel, before recovering. 

Al-Naimi was sent packing into retirement by the Saudi king and the US oil patch suffered investment delays and thousands of job losses, but survived and saw another wave of consolidation. 

Ultimately, both back then and this time around, those contributing to headline US hydrocarbon production are driven by the spirit of private enterprise, not some unified collective like OPEC producers who can collectively hike or cut output. This spirit and agility keeps them afloat at trying times, if not avoid pain. 

Many shale producers are currently hedged at $70+ per barrel levels with the hedges slated to decouple in six to 18 months time. Therefore, the earliest a hit will be noted would be in 2026 to early 2027 when production stateside will likely plateau or start sliding lower. So are we in a prolonged fight for crude market share and will it work in OPEC's favour? Only time will tell. 

But for context, back in the summer of 2016, the US was producing north of 8.5 million bpd despite all the pain in oil patch. In May 2025, as yet another battle for market share commences - in very different circumstances commences - that figure is north of 13 million bpd. Go figure! 

That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon in line with market developments as they happen. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous, on BBC Business Today on May 28, 2025. © BBC News, May 2025. 

Media missives from Emerson Exchange 2025

With Emerson Exchange 2025 - the thought leadership event of global engineering services, industrial automation and technology giant Emerson - drawing to a close on May 22, the Oilholic enjoyed a fascinating and engaging week out in San Antonio, Texas, US. 

An action-packed week included insightful 1-on-1 discussions, panel chats, a product launch and wider interactions on the global energy and industry mix, and, where it is heading to with the "plant or factory of the future." 

All of The Oilholic's blog entries for Emerson Exchange may be found here. Yours truly also provided insight and an exclusive interview to Forbes from the event as detailed below. 

• Emerson To Seamlessly Integrate Its Industrial Automation Tech Stack, May 20, 2025
• $40 Billion Of Asset Deals In 4 Years, Room For More, Says Emerson COO, May 22, 2025

That's all for the moment folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Emerson Exchange 2025 held at the Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center, San Antonio, Texas, US. © Gaurav Sharma, May 2025. 

On AI and more at Emerson Exchange 2025

As the week progressed, Emerson Exchange 2025 came into its element sparking discussions under the event's core them of accelerating innovation. 

Over 300 presentations, client engagements and panels took place covering AI, automation, IIoT, predictive analytics, smart industrial equipment and more. 

The industrial sectors covered included traditional energy, renewables, power and utilities, chemicals, mining, pharmaceuticals, automotive, and food and beverage, but to name a few. 

Speaking of AI, the Oilholic moderated a TechTalk session titled - Industrial AI: Driving Smarter, Safer, and More Sustainable Operations. Subject matter experts on the panel included: Heiko Claussen, Chief Technologist, Emerson, Nate Harris, Global AI Sales Lead, Data & AI, Microsoft, Lynn Comp, Global Head of Sales for the AI Center of Excellence, Intel, and Clint Schneider, VP of Technology at Emerson's Final Control Business.

The panel touched on how AI is rapidly reshaping industrial operations, enabling predictive insights, process optimization and greater sustainability. At the heart of the discussions was AI deployment across the global industrial and manufacturing complex to enhance decision-making, improve efficiency and address complex operational challenges.

Cybersecurity and a re-skilling of the workforce - key facets of the ongoing industrial
transformation - also came under scrutiny, with a discussion on the workforce of the future and zero trust security architecture. 

Whichever way you look at it dear readers, in the quest for improved throughput and a lower carbon footprint (which are joined at the hip in the Oilholic's opinion) - an embedding of AI with safeguards into process systems, turning information and data into actionable insights, and a shift toward optimized autonomous operations are all but inevitable. 

Emerson is eyeing massive opportunities in this sphere and has been repositioning its business via acquisitions, divestments and bolt-on transactions worth $40bn in just the past four years alone. Here's this blogger's exclusive interview on the subject for Forbes with the company's Chief Operating Officer Ram Krishnan. 

The logic slots in particularly well in the case of the global oil and gas industry that's constantly learning to do more with less, at a time of cyclical volatility and lower oil prices.

And if you happened to tour the technology exhibits at Emerson Exchange, various solutions being showcased pointed to exactly that. 

Elsewhere, yours truly also hosted leadership conversations for Emerson on the sidelines of the event. Over a dozen members of the company's divisional and corporate leadership team kindly took part in the conversations to share their invaluable industry insight. 

As a teaser they included, Emerson COO Ram Krishnan, CSO Mike Train, CTO Peter Zornio, CMO Vidya Ramnath, and Emerson's AspenTech business CTO Claudio Fayad among others. The recordings will be published in due course by the Emerson team, and the Oilholic will alert you when they are online. So, watch this space. 

Well, that's a wrap from Emerson Exchange 2025 until next time. Its been a memorable, insightful and exciting week here in San Antonio. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: AI TechTalk at Emerson Exchange 2025. © Denise Clarke, May 2025. Photo II: Behind the scenes at the recording of Leadership Conversations with Emerson at Emerson Exchange 2025 hosted by Gaurav Sharma © Scott Leech / Brandspeak Communications, May 2025. 

Boundless automation at Emerson Exchange 2025

While the doors of Emerson Exchange 2025 opened on Monday, formal proceedings got underway on Tuesday morning with a keynote from Emerson CEO Lal Karsanbhai.

The global industrial technology and software vendor's boss said his industry is facing dynamic markets in an evolving industrial landscape. 

"Emerson is moving in the right direction with purpose, conviction and agility in automation, shaping what's next for global industries," he noted.

Flagging $40 billion worth of transactions from Emerson over the last four years, Karsanbhai said the company was also displaying remarkable agility from within via "boundless automation", and an ever improving offer of software premised integrated solutions that both the markets and his company's customers have come to expect of it. 

The Emerson CEO also lauded his company's acquisition of industrial software leader AspenTech for $7.2 billion because it supported "a software driven approach to shape the future direction of travel for Emerson."

To that end, Karsanbhai also delivered a teaser of 'Project Beyond' - Emerson's new product suite that seamlessly integrates its entire industrial automation technology stack. 

Following the keynotes came the formal launch of Project Beyond, hosted by yours truly alongside Peter Zornio, CTO of Emerson, Claudio Fayad, CTO of AspenTech, Nina Schwalb, Head of AspenTech DataWorks inmation, and Dave Denison, Vice President of Software Applications at Emerson Automation Solutions. 

The quartet described how Project Beyond brings industrial AI together with contextualized data across a diverse set of automation environments – embedded, edge and cloud – to "unlock flexibility, safety, sustainability and performance" to facilitate "boundless automation." 

For more details on the actual launch itself, here's this blogger's report for Forbes. At the launch, a statement by COO Ram Krishnan noted that Emerson was looking for an increased take-up of its integrated product offer from energy, power and utilities, chemicals, mining and pharmaceuticals. 

“Companies are eager to modernize automation and keep pace with the promise of new technologies like AI without ripping and replacing their existing infrastructure or dealing with the pain and costs of integrating new applications and millions of fragmented data points,” Krishnan added.

“Project Beyond will use the power of software-defined control to introduce an entirely new, scalable, seamlessly integrated infrastructure with automated data contextualization to turn trapped data into powerful operational efficiencies.”

Following the product launch, and the commencement of the conference program, the event's technology exhibition also opened its doors to visitors showcasing Emerson's hardware and software solutions based on the six "building blocks" of Project Beyond. 

They include - computing power, networking and connectivity, data operations, app marketplace, AI orchestration and a zero-trust security architecture for industries. Overall, an exciting day's outing with plenty more to follow soon. 

On that note, its time to say goodbye for now. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Lal Karsanbhai, CEO of Emerson delivers his keynote at Emerson Exchange 2025. © Gaurav Sharma, May 2025. Photo II: Launch of Emerson's 'Project Beyond' on May 20, 2025. © Keith Larson / Endeavor Business Media. Photo III: Glimpses of the technology exhibition at Emerson Exchange 2025 © Gaurav Sharma, May 2025. 

Getting started at Emerson Exchange 2025

The Oilholic has arrived in San Antonio, Texas, US for the week-long Emerson Exchange 2025. It is the thought leadership event of engineering services, industrial automation and software giant Emerson. 

The event - being held at the city's Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center - is expected to draw in nearly 4,000 attendees from over 50 countries, representing 300-plus companies integral to the global industrial and manufacturing complex. 

The theme for this year's event is Accelerating Innovation. Over the course of the week, attendees can expect around 300 presentations as part of a varied content program. 

Yours truly will also take part in the program, including a panel on industrial AI on Wednesday, details of which will follow soon. While this blogger's interest is in the energy segment, over a dozen industries would be represented here from pharmaceuticals to food and beverage. 

Emerson Exchange 2025 will also hold an exhibition spread over a 130,000 square foot exhibition hall with nearly 100 exhibitors showcasing over 500 industrial solutions. Expect a few product launches too. Looking forward to an exciting action packed week out in Texas. 

More soon as the week progresses! Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at Emerson Exchange 2025 © Gaurav Sharma, May 2025. 

Speaking and moderating at Emerson Exchange 2025

Delighted to announce that yours truly has partnered with global technology, engineering and industrial software giant Emerson to speak and moderate at the company's upcoming thought leadership event - Emerson Exchange 2025. 

This year's theme for the event - due to be held in San Antonio, Texas, US, from May 19 to 22, 2025 - is "accelerating innovation." Explore its groundbreaking agenda here.

The event aspires to empower change in the sphere of industrial automation by exploring advanced technologies, strategies, collaborative approaches and best practices. To attend, register here: 

Really looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in San Antonio.

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Speaker profile of Gaurav Sharma for Emerson Exchange 2025 © Emerson / Emerson Exchange, May 2025. 

What oil price would Trump want for US consumers?

US President Donald Trump makes no secret of his pro oil and gas credentials. It is also widely understood that the President seeks lower crude prices for the American consumer. 

Ideally, US shale producers would prefer oil prices north of $75 per barrel. That isn't exactly low enough for the President. 

Thanks to an uncertain macroeconomic climate, the kerfuffle caused by his trade tariffs and OPEC+ opting to bring more barrels on to an already well supplied market - prices have recently slumped down to $60-65 per barrel. But is that range now low enough for the President? Perhaps not, say many, including global investment bank Goldman Sachs. 

Apparently, after a forensic analysis of the President's social media posts, analysts at the bank have concluded that his preference would be for a $40-50 per barrel West Texas Intermediate range. The US benchmark is trading at ~$3 per barrel discount to the global proxy benchmark Brent at the time of writing.

Quoting parts of a Goldman Sachs report to clients, Bloomberg recently noted it as having observed that Trump's "inferred preference for WTI appears to be around $40 to $50 a barrel, where his propensity to post about oil prices bottoms.” 

He also “tends to call for lower prices (or celebrate falling prices) when WTI is greater than $50,” Goldman analysts added. “In contrast, President Trump has called for higher prices when prices are very low (WTI less than $30) often in the context of supporting US production.”

However, for US shale drillers this blogger has spoken to, that range is a tad too low. Many are presently hedged 12-18 months out on $70-plus prices. When the hedges come off, a low price environment will bite. 

But the President has also been very vocal about US energy dominance - or as Goldman analysts note - tweeting nearly "900 times" about it. Clearly he wants US oil inc. to succeed too. So, where would the happy middle ground be between both sentiment tugs? 

Market forces might well decide that, skewing it to one side or the other. The only confirmed thing is the overwhelmingly bearish climate this may all play out in 2025. That's all for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: US flag. © DWilliam / Pixabay, 2015. 

Visiting a 'sustainability lighthouse' factory

Earlier this year The Oilholic headed to Le Vaudreuil in Normandy, France, some 115 km northwest of Paris, to get up close to Schneider Electric's ongoing smart factories drive. 

Its plant in the French commune is one of 11 such sites around the world where digitalisation and automation are in full swing to improve throughput, and, of course, to demonstrate the efficacy of Schneider Electric's solutions to existing as well as potential customers. 

Essentially, the global energy management and automation vendor has converted a 50-year-old brownfield site - of around 14,000 square meters that produces its hardware - into a fully functional staging post for automation solutions banking on EcoStruxure - its IIoT solutions suite. 

Here is yours truly's feature for Forbes on the site visit and the company's motivation for the exercise that Le Vaudreuil is an integral part of. The said transformation was several years in the making.

Schneider Electric embarked on the journey in 2018, and now in 2025, a fully automated Le Vaudreuil is yielding some impressive results. Power consumption is down by 36% and CO2 emissions lower by over 80%. Furthermore, the delivery lead time has improved by 70%.

As the battle for a slice of the industrial automation market heats up, such sites will prove invaluable for the company as showcases for live action demonstrations if one may use the expression - something it happily flags. 

What's more, the drive has seen Schneider Electric bag accolades from the World Economic Forum (WEF) which has designated the Le Vaudreuil plant as a "sustainability lighthouse" - i.e. a leader in sustainable industrial processes. Six other such manufacturing sites owned and operated by the company have also bagged the WEF badge. 

Overall, this blogger was delighted to have gotten up close to view how AI, IIoT, predictive analytics, robotics, machine learning, and more, keep the factory of the future going. So, here's a big shout out to Schneider Electric's team at Le Vaudreuil who spared their time to show The Oilholic around, demonstrate the plant's kit and processes, answer queries and provide the necessary data for research purposes.

That's all for now folks, more musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Gaurav Sharma, energy analyst, Oilholics Synonymous (third from right in high visibility jacket) with the team at Schneider Electric's 'sustainability lighthouse' factory in Le Vaudreuil, Normandy, France © Nicole Love Lloyd / Schneider Electric, 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma outside Schneider Electric's Le Vaudreuil factory in Normandy, France.

The scramble to lower oil price forecasts

The Oilholic has been on record noting there is little to be bullish about oil at this stage of the trading cycle. Recent events have not only proven this to be the case but amplified the prevailing bearish sentiment.

With OPEC+ determined to ramp up production despite tepid demand and US President Donald Trump's administration resuming nuclear talks with Iran carrying the possibility of a settlement - a bit of a mad scramble to lower oil price forecasts is taking place. 

Banks and brokerages are all lining up to lower their prior forecasts. Last week, Goldman Sachs told clients it now expects Brent crude to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and around $56 in 2026. Both projections are lower by $2 from their previous level. Goldman Sachs also cut its forecast for WTI crude by $3 per barrel to an average of $56 for the rest of 2025 and $52 in 2026. 

It is by no means alone. Morgan Stanley has also trimmed its oil price forecasts for the remainder of the year. It revised its Brent projection down to $62.50 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of 2025; a downward revision of $5 per barrel from the previous forecast.

Meanwhile, Barclays has cut its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 a barrel for 2026. ING cut its Brent forecast too for the remainder of 2025 down to $62 per barrel from $68.

Citi also cut its three-month price forecast for Brent down to $55 per barrel on Thursday, from a previous estimate of $60 per barrel. It has however maintained the $60 projection for its long-term forecast. And ANZ maintained its already low oil price target over the next three months of $55 per barrel but warned of risks "firmly skewed to the downside."

Away from banks and brokerages, the US Energy Information Administration - statistical arm of the Department of Energy - cut its average Brent oil spot price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short-term energy outlook published on May 6.

The EIA currently sees the Brent spot price averaging $65.85 per barrel in 2025 and $59.24 per barrel in 2026. In its previous outlook published in April, it projected the Brent spot price to average $67.87 in 2025 and $61.48 in 2026.

Expect more downward revisions over the coming weeks unless mildly bullish sentiment returns via a combination of one or more of three developments: (1) US-Iran tensions revert to pre-talks level, (2) OPEC+ reverses course, and/or (3) an easing of US-China trade tiffs unfolds. 

Even in that eventuality, the uptick is likely to pull Brent up to around the $70 mark in the Oilholic's opinion, and well shy of the $80+ levels the bulls crave. Well that's all for now folks, more musings to follow over the course of the month. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © jplenio / Pixabay, 2018.