It's nearly coming up to a week since the latest Middle East crisis began last Saturday, after US and Israeli jets pounded Iran and took out its senior leadership. Tehran retaliated by hitting targets across the region embroiling several oil and gas producing Gulf states in a war that isn't of their choosing.
The skirmishes continue at the time of writing and the conflict is threatening to spiral out of control. Iran - which physically does not need to close the key maritime artery that's the Strait of Hormuz and actually can't - has threatened to do so. It has spooked both shipping firms and insurers thereby severely reducing transits in the Strait.
Brent and WTI front-month contracts are above $80 levels, with the former nearing $90 on Friday. Unsurprisingly, the Oilholic has spent the entirety of the week providing client intel and analysis, alongside changing travel plans to the region with air-space(s) shut and media commentary.
Natural gas prices are another matter of concern after Qatar stopped its LNG exports on Monday knocking off 20% of the world's LNG supply. It triggered a jump of over 40% to begin with before calm returned followed by another rise. Prices are higher at the moment but not at Ukraine War levels yet when the initial shock of that event hit the markets and lurked around for much of 2022.
Switching back to thoughts on the oil price - firstly, the reason we are not yet talking of $150 oil prices (or at least this blogger isn't) is largely thanks to the comfort cushion of non-OPEC crude barrels. Let's not forget that the market was heading for a surplus before the conflict started. Secondly, oil is not just a story of supply but one of demand too, which is looking pretty lacklustre in the run up to the conflict.
So where is the crisis going - an achieving of partial objectives and an off-ramp for the warring sides? A prolonged conflict? That's anybody's guess. But right now the market appears to be betting on an easing of hostilities within four to six weeks based on the soundbites from the White House.
If that happens to be the case, the market bulls currently out in force will enjoy a short-lived outing, and the perma-bulls are unlikely to get much joy. Since last Saturday, yours truly has also been discussing this and much more with publications, radio and television networks including Tagesspiegel, BBC World Service Radio, Energy Connects, Arabian Gulf Business Insights, Radio New Zealand, Al Jazeera English, TRT World and BBC World News.
That'd be seven days, eight media outlets, discussing where all this is heading to, all alongside modelling and making predictions for clients during an unprecedented global event.
Overall, the crude oil market finds itself in uncharted waters and a profound geopolitical crisis. But the price risk is at present manageable with OPEC+ currently somewhat of a spectator to what's unfolding. While a prolonged conflict could change that, we are not there yet.
Should we get there, high oil (and gas) prices would put inflationary pressures on consumers and industries to begin with felt most acutely in Europe and Asia. However, the domino effect would subsequently dent demand and global economic growth.
We're in for a roller-coaster over the coming weeks. Let's see what the coming days greet us with first. That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
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