So, if you’ve ever wondered how the industry and the 'black gold' trade has evolved, a new book - The Rivers of Money: Social and Economic History of Modern Oil Trading, by Adi Imsirovic and Colin Bryce, would be a splendid one to read.
The authors offer a deep dive based on their domain expertise of the evolution of modern oil trading, its implications, key movers and shakers, politics and idiosyncrasies.
Their book is a detailed explainer-cum-tale of the billions of dollars that are exchanged on any given trading day in the oil market, encompassing futures, forwards, swaps and options and all the financial intricacies in between.
For Imsirovic and Bryce, the global oil market "resembles a powerful river of capital, constantly flowing towards the most profitable and cost-efficient opportunities, much like water seeking the path of least resistance."
While this flow cannot be halted, the authors note that "it can be strategically guided to maximise social benefits" and explain how oil traders "navigate these swirling waters, leveraging arbitrage opportunities to channel oil across borders to the places of most efficient usage."
In a book of just under 350 pages, split by 18 detailed chapters, Imsirovic and Bryce take the reader through significant points in the history of the oil business, their impact and role in shaping what subsequently followed.
Key developments like the Suez Crisis, founding of OPEC, Arab Oil embargo, decline of the oil majors, growth of Asian markets, emergence of independent traders, major historical political interventions, ethics violations, resource curse hypotheses and legislative changes - most notably ones like US President Richard Nixon's pricing system and the arbitrage opportunities it created for traders – all undergo an authoritative examination.
An account of the transformation brought about by the City of London’s bulking up of crude volumes and Wall Street’s involvement in oil trading, both of which introduced new financial products and practices, is equally riveting.
For the authors, that marked the oil market's journey from a controlled oligopoly in the 1970s to a more dynamic trading environment, when the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley entered the fray in the mid-1980s with rising numbers of hedge funds and spot traders in tow.
Of particular significance, as Imsirovic and Bryce detail, was the NYMEX’s introduction of the WTI crude oil contract in 1983, and it becoming a key price leader.
It all played a part in giving rise to a metaphorical river where "the sheer scale of the financial currents propelled by the immense volume and value of oil become relentless, powerful streams of both oil and money carving their way through the global economy."
It would be hard for, perhaps even unfair of, the Oilholic to pick excerpts and chapters in Rivers of Money, to mark as favourites. But if forced to – chapters 14 and 17 – "A billion dollars is not what it used to be" and "Paper boys" – were fascinating passages, based purely on this blogger’s specific areas of interest in a wider industry context, and immensely liking the authors' take on them as part of their holistic work on the subject matter.
Equally impactful is the authors' take on the people behind the ‘crude’ deals, electronic trading, technological advancements, data analytics and a gradual reshaping of the oil trading landscape driven by human nature and economic imperatives.
All-in-all, Rivers of Money by Imsirovic and Bryce is a thoroughly enjoyable book on the evolution of oil trading that both informs and makes you reflect on what is, and will be, the energy commodity of our age for a large length of time.
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