Back to a "highest since July" oil market

Another month of uncertainty in the Middle East has resulted in another round of wild price swings in the oil market, and often heard quips of Brent and WTI futures having hit their highest since July. That was literally just a month ago. 

US President Donald Trump's latest move is to hit Iran economically. With all else failing to resolve a safe and certain passage of energy (and other) cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, and major regional exporters like Saudi Arabia and UAE exploring alternative transit routes, focus of the White House has now turned to crippling Iran's economy intertwined with its energy industry via non-military means. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the latest move as "an economic D-Day" and "the single greatest financial offensive ever" - the full details of which will follow over the coming weeks. Given the limited range of options available to bring a swift end to the tension, such a long shot is worth a try, even if the Islamic republic's capacity to ride it out and pass on the hardship to its people is pretty well documented. 

Meanwhile, the oil market is learning to live with the diplomatic deadlock of the past few months following on from the breaking out of hostilities on February 28. It has become a sort of a 'perma-crisis' or a permanent crisis as risk premiums subside only to rise again, and more of the same.

In recent weeks we have seen crude oil cargoes continue to move under the cloud of geopolitical uncertainty largely along the Omani coastline. Various data aggregators indicate the figure may be somewhere in the region of 9-10.5 million barrels per day. Now, even if taken at the upper end of the range, that's still only around half of the volume noted in February. 

As such the domino effect of all this will continue to be felt by the global market with elevated and volatile prices. But that hit is nowhere near the three-figure levels seen at the height of the conflict in March and April. 

Using Brent as a benchmark as the time of The Oilholic posting this blog - oil futures are trading down 0.6% on last week, up 6% on last month, down 3% on the past three-months but up 33% on last year, as trading on daily developments becomes the order of the day. Expect more of the same for now. 

That's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015.