Seesawing crude price, fresh lows & more

Oil prices have been seesawing all of this week in the wake of another round of Trump Tariffs, an OPEC+ production hike, market uncertainty, and so it goes. You name it, the market bears have it with crude prices currently lurking around 8-week lows. 

Brent closed at its lowest since June 10 on Wednesday, while the WTI closed at its lowest since June 5. 

However, even if you were to drown out the latest din, it is almost inescapable that both benchmarks have struggled to meaningfully maintain a price floor of $70 a barrel. 

Specifically on the global proxy benchmark Brent, as The Oilholic told Reuters, for all of what has been thrown the oil market's way geopolitically, it has struggled to stay above $70 a barrel for any convincing length of time. 

At the time of writing, Brent is down by over 10% on the year, 9% on a six-month basis, and, even more tellingly 11% year-to-date. That's because despite the various permutations and shifts the market has seen, it essentially remains well supplied at a time of uncertain demand.

Furthermore, the various macro factors - most notably China’s manufacturing contraction, weak US labour market data, and the chaos of Trump Tariffs - continue to temper expectations of any sort of lasting bullishness for crude.

Away from crude prices, here are yours truly's Forbes missives on a 10th successive quarterly profit decline at Saudi Aramco, Shell's share buybacks despite its own profits dip, and BP's latest bid to cheer up its underwhelmed shareholders. 

Additionally, here's The Oilholic's latest column for Energy Connects on the sector's incremental embrace of industrial AI and the commercial opportunities that presents the technology industry. 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Exploring Elysian Aircraft's electric E9X plane concept

(Left to right: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, Reynard De Vries, Chief Engineer, Elysian Aircraft and Rob Wolleswinkel, Co-CEO and Chief Technology Officer, Elysian Aircraft) 

Earlier this month, The Oilholic headed out to Hoofddorp, The Netherlands, where in the shadow of one of the world's busiest transport hub - Schiphol Airport - startup Elysian Aircraft is attempting something rather unique. 

The company is aiming to build a narrow-body electric plane - something very few, if any, of its peers are having a crack at. In fact, up until the visit, this blogger had only encountered four to 20-seater zero air mobility concepts around the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) and electric conventional takeoff and landing (eCTOL) spheres. 

But Elysian's concept plane called the E9X will be capable of carrying 90 passengers over 500 miles on a single charge. The projected capacity is around half that of the airline industry's short-haul work-horses Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320. It would have a decent chance of success in an industry that appears desperate to lower its carbon footprint. 

To discuss the E9X's potential, pitfalls, development trajectory and taking it to market, The Oilholic sat down for both an off-record as well as on-record analyst's briefing with Elysian's co-founders Daniel Rosen Jacobson (Co-CEO), Reynard De Vries (Chief Engineer) and Rob Wolleswinkel (Co-CEO and chief technology officer) as well as four other members of the now 30-strong team. 

Based on the on-record exchanges with the team, here is the Oilholic's recent feature on Elysian for Forbes. As for the off-record discussions, the plane's proof of concept does stand up to independent scrutiny is all this blogger can say at present, something the startup itself has been working tirelessly on. 

A paper co-authored by De Vries and Wolleswinkel, and two others, published by the Delft University of Technology, is well worth a read too in this context, if you wish to. 

Furthermore, Wolleswinkel told this blogger that his colleagues are under no illusion about the magnitude of the task ahead, but have the courage of their convictions to make it happen in an emerging electric aircraft segment that is littered with more failures than signs of tangible successes.

The company's Series A funding is likely to close by the end of the current quarter, according to Jacobson, who added that it was all about taking "phased but assured steps forward" with patient capital investments. 

It remains a tough landscape of carbon-neutral air travel solutions. Therefore, it remains to be seen how it will go for this electric aviation startup. As things stand, the E9X prototype is expected in 2030, and a service entry by 2033. The Oilholic wishes Team Elysian Aircraft well and will now keep a very keen eye out for their progress. 

With those final thoughts, its time to take your leave. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma with Elysian Aircraft's co-founders. Photo II: Elysian Aircraft's E9X conceptual image. © Elysian Aircraft, July 2025. 

On price caps and sub-$70 crude

Earlier this month, Brent crude futures touched $70 per barrel levels despite a suggested uptick in the amount of oil OPEC+ was bringing on to the market. 

The widely held belief here was that internal cheating or quota busting within OPEC+ ranks meant the announced increase wasn't what it was being made out to be. 

In step with that, Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea upped the geopolitical stakes a bit. 

Then a week ago, the EU and UK moved to lower the price cap on Russian crude from $60 per barrel to $47 per barrel, with effect from September 3. As inventory data at the time also pointed to a decline, traders took their cue and kept prices elevated. 

But keeping prices at $70 Brent levels looked unrealistic then, and has proven to be so in the sessions that have followed since. Thing is, as past Western sanctions and price caps on Russian crude have demonstrated, it always finds a way to reach where those willing to buy it need it, albeit at a discount that's priced comfortably above price cap. 

For instance, the previous price cap and sanctions regime did not prevent India from taking plenty of Russian crude, cracking it and exporting petroleum products and distillates around the world. This point hasn't been lost on the EU, which took a direct swipe at India's Nayara Energy (formerly Essar Oil) - the operator of the country's second-largest single-site refining complex in the coastal town of Vadinar, in which Russia's Rosneft has a stake. 

However, European curbs on Nayara's exports derived from Western sanctions-ridden Russian crude are unlikely to make any tangible difference to the wider scheme of things. India's exposure to the European market is not what it used to be, and its domestic market is more than capable of picking up middle distillate volumes left unexported. 

The wider crude market has also come to the belief that should China and India want Russian crude in higher volumes, they will find a way. Hence, the current decline in prices. Overall, there is ample crude in the market and current price levels are unlikely to be sustained. We are looking at a likely surplus from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, as yours truly noted via Forbes post earlier this month, if not earlier. As such lower prices may beckon. 

Finally, here are another couple of the Oilholic's Forbes missives - the first a take on OPEC's latest forecast dismissing peak oil demand and projecting a global demand growth of 123 million bpd by 2050 contrary to the opinion of many in the market, and the second, a take on how China and India are keeping coal in play and a future energy transition at bay! 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

On OPEC's higher output, no peak demand & no access

OPEC's two-day biennial 9th International Seminar came to a conclusion on Thursday after its key voices roundly declared the world simply needed more oil, there was no prospect of peak demand any time soon and denied half the world's scribes an opportunity to forensically question that assertion. 

More on the latter point later, but as The Oilholic noted in an overnight Forbes missive, the Saudi energy minister and de facto OPEC leader Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned against hurting global economic growth and people's "affordability" in the name of energy transition, multiple attendees confirmed to the Oilholic. 

The minister also said Wednesday that as renewable energy sources continue to grow, hydrocarbons will remain “indispensable” in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage keep going.

And on Thursday - the second and final day of the OPEC Seminar - OPEC published its World Oil Outlook report claiming that crude demand will average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. The producers' group expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. To be read as - there's not going to be a peak demand scenario any time soon.

Now speaking of being reliant on third parties and quotes of seminar attendees to bring you these snippets dear readers, you may be wondering what's afoot. Well, for the first time since September 2004, OPEC turned down the Oilholic's request to attend, write op-eds for Forbes and blogs from the seminar.

Yours truly wasn't alone. It also withheld access to a number of global newswires, WSJ and FT, among many others. And for good measure, the event management company was instructed to tell all "non-partner media" journalists that the venue was full to capacity in case they turned up at the registration desk unannounced. 

There's not much one can do about this, but it didn't stop The Oilholic from flagging the goings-on at the event, and meeting and greeting familiar friends and faces from our 'crude' world. 

Still not sure what triggered but if it has something to do with objective reporting and searching questions - that ain't getting compromised folks, not now, not ever!

Non-access also meant that market commentary had to be done offsite, including with Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV. Yours truly discussed Brent crude touching $70 per barrel intraday on Wednesday with Senior Business News Anchor Nour Amache, and why near-term market sentiment was being impacted by lower inventories and anticipated higher summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere.

Furthermore, OPEC may have raised its output, but the hikes have already largely been factored in by traders. So, the move is currently not serving as a drag on prices. However, it would be interesting to note what happens when summer demand tails off, and the fourth quarter approaches with more OPEC+ barrels and hedged US / non-OPEC crude on the market. 

That will likely create a surplus, especially for light sweet crude, thereby potentially driving prices lower. Who knows, it may even convince US President Donald Trump to perhaps top up his country's strategic reserves. It seems we're heading for an interesting second half of the year. 

Well that's all from Vienna folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo I: Gaurav Sharma, energy analyst outside OPEC International Seminar venue at Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Austria on July 9, 2025 © Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma offers oil market commentary on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025. © Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025.

Vienna bound ahead of OPEC seminar

After the latest OPEC meeting follows the producers' group's seminar - its invitation to the great and the good of the energy world held once every two years in Vienna. 

As the Oilholic heads out there for a business trip, while sitting and musing at London's Heathrow airport before the flight, one cannot but help notice that oil benchmarks are on the up. 

That's despite OPEC+'s decision to up production by another half a million plus barrels. The group has effectively unwound nearly 90% of the so-called "voluntary" cuts it brought in back in 2022. Conventional market wisdom would suggest that oil futures would head lower on the development but they haven't. 

That's down to three key reasons. They include: (1) an expectation that the summer driving season in Northern Hemisphere in general, and the US in particular, would absorb the additional barrels, (2) an uptick in attacks on cargoes in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels providing an element of risk, and (3) a belief that quota busting within OPEC+ ranks means many of the additional barrels are not all that additional at all. 

Regardless of where we head to in the very near-term, there is likely to be a surplus and relatively weaker prices as the end of the year approaches. It sets up an interesting second half of the trading year, one, that as things stand, the market bears are likely to win bar another major geopolitical flare-up or a macroeconomic event. 

Well that's all for now folks. More musing from Vienna soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.