Showing posts with label Russia oil shortage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia oil shortage. Show all posts

Thursday, July 30, 2026

That 'other' oil and gas market risk to fret about

Earlier this week, fuel shortages in Russia brought that 'other' geopolitical risk for the oil market into sharp focus - the Russia-Ukraine War that's been raging since 2022. 

That's after attacks by Ukraine on Russia's energy infrastructure caused chaos at the country's pumps impacting 35% of the Russian population. 

This is festering wider discontent as Ukrainian attacks literally hit peoples lives from the pump to the supermarket. Additionally, the lack of service at the pumps in Moscow, which is also facing shortages, is a prestige issue. That's why Siberian volumes are being redirected to the capital. It has led to some levels of improvement.

Ironically, what has also improved the situation temporarily over the past week is Ukraine's own internal disagreements on what to target in Russia, and some attacks have shifted away from refineries and fuel depots to other economic targets. They will return.

So, where is all this going? Issue here for the Kremlin is that the statistics are quite damning. For the Russian government there is not a single region of the country, including the capital, that hasn't been impacted by the fuel shortages. 

This is astonishing for a country of Russia's size with a population of 143 million people. President Vladimir Putin's response would / is proving to be hard to predict. 

Perhaps it's 50:50 in terms of escalating the conflict in a more hardline way or latching on to US President Donald Trump's offer of mediating some form of peace with Kiev. But based on past form, Putin is not known to give in to pressure. 

The energy market and indeed the world are truly in uncharted waters as this profound geopolitical crisis of our age festers on in the background while the world frets over the US-Iran debacle.

This was the subject of yours truly's latest interview on TRT World's Roundtable program with host Enda Brady. Here's the link to the full broadcast should you wish to view it. But that's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Fueling up a car © andreas160578 / Pixabay, Mar 2017. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on TRT World on July 27, 2026 © TRT World, July 2026.