Showing posts with label IPWeek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IPWeek. Show all posts

Thursday, February 28, 2019

On IPWeek 2019 & BP Boss' US shale take

A fascinating few days of debates and deliberations at the Energy Institute's International Petroleum Week 2019 came to a close in London earlier today.

For yet another year, the Oilholic was delighted to have spoken and moderated at the event as part of the Gulf Intelligence Middle East Energy Summit. Industry 4.0, investment climate, US shale and OPEC were all under the radar. Delegates were fairly evenly split on the direction of the oil price; but yours truly maintains that the phase of range-bound crude prices is here to stay. 

From where this blogger sits, it is appearing hard for Brent to escape the $65-75 per barrel range, and for the WTI to escape the $55-65 range this year. 

There were interesting soundbites aplenty, but BP Boss Bob Dudley's quip that US shale is a price responsive "brainless" market stood out among them all. Here's the Oilholic's full report and analysis on it for Forbes. That's all for the moment folks! Next stop - Houston, Texas for IHS CERAWeek 2019. Keep reading, keep it crude!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at IPWeek 2019; with Chris Midgley, Global Director of Analytics for S&P Global Platts © Gulf Intelligence. 

Friday, March 09, 2018

Frackers on the side of geopolitical angels?

IHS CERA Week 2018’s day two and three whizzed by with plenty of more talking points, some predictable, and well some not so predictable, with the oil price seesawing in the backdrop. 

Both benchmarks spent much of Monday and Tuesday on the up, and all of Wednesday and Thursday shedding those gains, with speaker after speaker suggesting US shale and the country's oil and gas exports were not a fad. 

Among them was US President Donald Trump's emissary – Energy Secretary Rick Perry – who emphatically declared on Wednesday that American producers were now allies of energy deficient nations craving energy security. 

Here’s the Oilholic’s report for Forbes with Perry’s...er...Trumped up soundbites. That said the US Energy Secretary is right – even the most pessimistic of shale decline rate forecasts suggest elevated oil and gas production volumes are here to say for at least another 10 years. 

"The U.S. has now become a net natural gas exporter. Our producers export liquefied natural gas (LNG) to 27 nations on five continents. In the coming years, you can expect more of the same," Perry reminded CERA Week delegates and you can expect more of the same. 

On a related note, here’s the Oilholic’s Forbes research into what incremental volumes of US LNG exports mean for the market, and the profound changes new players on the scene are bringing about. It has the thoughts of experts from Baker McKenzie, S&P Global Platts, KPMG, IHS Markit and ABB. 

Switching tack to some interesting soundbites over the last couple of days, Qatar's Oil Minister Mohammed Al-Sada said both oil producers and consumers were losing due to oil price volatility either side of the price slump in 2014. "Neither very high nor very low prices are good for global GDP. So OPEC had to intervene responsibly," he said of the ongoing OPEC and non-OPEC oil production cuts.

Bob Dudley, CEO of oil giant BP, admitted: "Our downstream business effectively funds the billions of dollars we pay in dividends."

Additionally, he noted that the UK oil & gas industry was going through "a renaissance; after remarkable, painful restructuring in the North Sea was behind it."

Dudley, also reiterated his stance from IPWeek a fortnight ago that his company and the rest of the energy industry is in a race to lower carbon emissions, not a race to lower emissions. ‏

Elsewhere, here's the Oilholic's Forbes interview with BP's Chief Scientist Dame Angela Strank on the crucial topic of gender diversity in the oil and gas business, and the vital need for the industry to continue to promote and emphasise the importance of STEM career pathways. 

And before one takes your leave, here's a glimpse of a Formula E car (above right) on display at the CERA Week tech floor. Pretty slick, bring on the electric car revolution! That's all for the moment from Houston folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo 1: US energy secretary Rick Perry at an IHS CERA Week 2018 press briefing. Photo 2: Formula E car on display at CERA Week's technology floor, Houston, Texas, USA. © Gaurav Sharma 2018.

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Crude musings at Platts LOF & IPWeek

A plethora of ongoing events meant the Oilholic ditched the comforts of suburbia last week and camped out at London’s Park Lane, with its row of hotels playing host to some crude events. 

For starters S&P Global Platts’ London Oil Forum 2018 made for an interesting Monday (19 Feb). Talk of the forum was, of course, the eastward direction of crude cargoes, as more and more oil tankers from the US head to Asian shores. There was tacit agreement among delegates at the Platts event that North American crude production will continue to grow, dominated by shale, leading to a relative surge in US exports.

Chris Midgley, Global Director of Analytics at Platts, noted: "Lot more US crude will move into Asia, primarily lighter crude for independent Asian refiners with less complex kit."

Platts' own observation, in tandem with those of rival data aggregators, also suggests that global production is growing a lot lighter. That's because the OPEC and non-OPEC production quota cut took heavy and medium crude exports to Asia into a net decline in 2017.


Additionally, Platts expects 2020 to be hugely disruptive from a crude cracking standpoint as nearly 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of fuel oil will have to "produced differently."

Right after the Platts LOF came the International Petroleum Week 2018, Tuesday through to Thursday, where yours truly also donned an event speaker’s hat. More on that later.  

On the very first day of IPWeek, UAE oil minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, said plans for an OPEC and non-OPEC producers’ ‘super-group’ were well and truly underway, and that the producers, while satisfied with the reduction in global inventories, had not quite reached their end-goal of achieving the kind of market balance they were aspiring for yet.

Elsewhere, BP Boss Bob Dudley told delegates the energy industry was in a race to lower carbon emissions, "not in a race to renewables"; which was one of the standout quotes of the event. 

Trump versus Iran, and India's crude oil demand were other burning topics. Platts also unveiled an agreement to track UAE oil inventories using blockchain. And the event ended with a lively debate organised by Gulf Intelligence, with the motion being ‘US Oil & Gas will steal market share from Gulf producers in Asia.

The Oilholic joined Dr Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, in arguing against the motion, with Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects’ Chief Oil Analyst and David Sheppard, Energy Markets Editor of the Financial Times, supporting the motion.  

In a nutshell, Dr Nakhle and this blogger’s argument against the motion was a simple one – as the demand mix evolves, and much of the incremental demand comes from Asia, there is in fact room for everyone, and the impact of US exports should not be exaggerated or oversimplified. 

At the beginning, the audience was 61% in favour of the motion and 39% against. However, in a final vote upon the conclusion of the debate, the Nakhle-Sharma duo managed to sway audience opinion to 65% against the motion, with those in favour of it down to 35%! 

Overall, a fun end to a crude week. That’s all for the moment folks! Next stop, Houston, Texas for IHS CERAWeek! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo1: Chris Midgley, S&P Global Platts’ ‎Director of Analytics, speaks at the data aggregator’s London Oil Forum. Photo 2: UAE Oil Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei  (left) talks to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the International Petroleum Week, London, UK © Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo 3: IPWeek Debate Participants at Middle East Energy Summit © Gulf Intelligence 2018.

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For comments or for professional queries, please email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

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