OPEC 'maintains' production at 30 million bpd

In line with market expectations and persistent rumours heard here all morning in Vienna, OPEC has agreed to officially maintain its crude production quota at 30 million barrels per day (bpd) at its 160th meeting, thereby legitimising the increase the Saudis triggered after the acrimony of the last meeting in June.

The OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said the heightened price volatility witnessed during the course of 2011 is predominantly a reflection of increased levels of speculation in the commodities markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, rather than a result of supply/demand fundamentals.

Ministers also expressed concern regarding the downside risks facing the global economy including the Euro-zone crisis, persistently high unemployment in the advanced economies, inflation risk in emerging markets and planned austerity measures in OECD economies.

“All these factors are likely to contribute to lower economic growth in the coming year. Although world oil demand is forecast to increase slightly during the year 2012, this rise is expected to be partially offset by a projected increase in non-OPEC supply,” El-Badri noted.

Hence, OPEC decided to maintain the production level of 30 million bpd curiously “including production from Libya, now and in the future”. The quota would be reviewed in six months and does not include Iraqi supply. The cartel also agreed that its members would, if necessary, take steps including voluntary downward adjustments of output to ensure market balance and reasonable price levels.

The last bit stirred up the scribes especially as El-Badri, himself a Libyan, noted that his country’s production will be back to 1 million bpd “soon” followed by 1.3 million bpd end-Q1 2012, and 1.6 million at end of Q2 2010; the last figure being the pre-war level.

Despite persistent questioning, the Secretary General insisted that Libyan production will be accommodated and 30 million bpd is what all members would be asked to adhere to formally. He added that the individual quotas would be reset when Libyan production is back to pre-war levels.

El-Badri also described the "meeting as amicable, successful and fruitful" and that OPEC was not in the business of defending any sort of crude price. “We always have and will leave it to market mechanisms,” he concluded.

Iran's Rostem Ghasemi said the current OPEC ceiling was suitable for consumers and producers. “We and the Saudis spoke in one voice.” He also said his country was "cool" on possible oil export embargoes but neither had any news nor any inclination of embargoes being imposed against his country yet. OPEC next meets in Vienna on June 14th, 2012.

Following OPEC’s move, the Oilholic turned the floor over to some friends in the analyst community. Jason Schenker, President and Chief Economist of Prestige Economics and a veteran at these events, believes OPEC is addressing a key question of concern to its members with the stated ceiling.

“That question is how to address the deceleration of global growth and pit that against rising supply. And what OPEC is doing is - not only leaving the production quota essentially unchanged but also holding it at that unchanged level,” Schenker said.

“When the Libyan production does indeed come onstream meaningfully or to pre-war levels between now and Q2 or Q3 of 2012, smart money would be on an offsetting taking place via a possible cut from Saudi Arabia,” he concluded.

Myrto Sokou, analyst at Sucden Financial Research, noted that an increase (or rather the acknowledgement of an increase) in the OPEC production limit after three years might add further downward pressure to the crude price for the short-term with a potential for some correction lower in crude oil prices.

“On top of this, the uncertain situation in the Eurozone continues to dominate the markets, weighting heavily on most equity and commodity prices and limiting risk appetite,” he said. And on that note, it is goodbye from the OPEC HQ. Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo: OPEC's 160th meeting concludes in Vienna, Austria - seated (R to L) OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri and President Rostem Ghasemi © Gaurav Sharma 2011.

OPEC's tiffs patched-up! Its all crudely good!

An announcement is expected on OPEC quota much earlier than expected at 14:00CET instead of 16:00CET. Instead of the rows we saw last time, things on this instance were so amicable that they've wrapped up early. Saudi minister Ali Al-Naimi has left the building having patched-up with his Iranian counterpart, a trusty Venezuelan has just confirmed that a 30 million bpd OPEC quota agreement is a done deal and the Oilholic has just done a comment piece on an OPEC TV webcast.

Rostam Ghasemi, Minister of Petroleum of Iran and current President of the OPEC Conference noted that the last meeting on June 8th, the international oil market has witnessed further volatility. The OPEC Reference Basket price has risen to US$113 a barrel on several occasions, and it fell below US$99 a barrel briefly at the start of October as well.

“Uncertainty about economic growth translates into uncertainty about oil demand. In the aforesaid five-month period, we have reduced our forecast for world oil demand growth in 2012 by around 600,000 barrels a day. This leaves us with a demand growth estimate for 2012 of 1.1 million barrels per day over 2011,” Ghasemi said.

“Therefore, when reviewing the market outlook for 2012 and beyond, we face a very unclear picture. On the one hand, we are committed to ensuring that the world oil market is always well-supplied. Yet, on the other hand, we are faced with the prospect of a world economy which could swing either way in the coming months. It could enter a welcome period of sustainable economic recovery or return to a new downturn or even recession,” he added.

A relatively small impulse in an economy, or a group of economies, could be a deciding factor in this unstable global environment. The situation is not helped by the still considerable influence of the international financial sector in over-stating market trends in one direction or another, out of line with fundamental factors,” Ghasemi continued.

All this, according to Ghasemi presents a huge challenge to OPEC's Member Countries, when it comes to investing in future production capacity in an industry with high capital-outlays and long lead-times. More shortly, after the official confirmation of the OPEC quota!

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo: OPEC HQ, Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma 2011.

On OPEC chatter & Libyans who matter!

Credible information and several statements made on arrival in Vienna by OPEC ministers and member nations’ delegates suggest that price hawks – chiefly Iran – will now accept an 'official' rise in production quota by Saudi Arabia and its allies Kuwait and Qatar.

That would mean the cartel would now legitimise and accept a stated production cap of 30 million barrels per day (bpd) for all members after talks on the issue fell apart in June and OPEC ministers left in a huff without formally outlining the output cap.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has already been flexing his ‘crude’ muscles. If, as expected, an OPEC agreement puts a 30 million bpd production cap on all 12 OPEC member nations, this would keep the cartel’s production in the region of a 3-year high. The stated volume would meet demand and leave enough surpluses to rebuild lean stocks by 650,000 bpd over the period according to OPEC.

Sucden Financial Research’s Jack Pollard notes that an OPEC production ceiling could provide some upside support if approved; Saudi opposition could suppress calls from Iran. The return of Libyan and Iraqi crude oil should alleviate the market’s tight supply conditions.

“As we come to the year-end, the contrasting tail risks in Europe and the Middle-East seem most likely to dominate sentiment. Increased sanctions on Iran which could cut production by 25%, according to the IEA, could mitigate the worst of the losses if the situation in Europe deteriorates,” he concludes.

Assurances are also being sought here to make room for Libya's supply coming back onstream so that collective production does not exceed 30 million bpd as ministerial delegations from Algeria, Kuwait, Nigeria and the OPEC secretariat met here today, ahead of tomorrow’s proceedings.

Most OPEC producers would be comfortable with an oil price of US$80 per barrel or above, while the Venezuelan and Iranian position of coveting a US$100-plus price is well known. Kuwait Oil Minister Mohammad al-Busairi told reporters, “The market is balanced, there is no shortage and there is no oversupply. We hope there will be an agreement that protects global economic growth.”

As talk of Libyan production coming back onstream gains steam here at OPEC, the Oilholic thinks the key figures on the Libyan side instrumental in bringing that about could or rather would be Abdel Rahim al-Keib (a key politician), Rafik al-Nayed (of Libya’s investment authority) and Abdurahman Benyezza (Minister of Oil and Gas). International companies BP, Eni, Occidental Petroleum, OMV and Repsol will figure too with operations in the country. That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo: 160th OPEC press conference table © Gaurav Sharma 2011.

IEA, crude price & Al-Naimi’s strong arm tactics!

The Oilholic arrived in Vienna this morning ahead of the 160th OPEC meeting from sunny Doha via a gale force wind hit London, to hear that the IEA had a new message for the cartel. The agency's latest market report notes that OPEC will need to produce “less” crude over 2012 than previously forecast. Global demand will average 90.3 million barrels per day (bpd) over 2012, which is 200,000 barrels less than the IEA’s November estimate.

This marks the fourth cut in the IEA’s 2012 forecast. Meanwhile, before the OPEC meeting outcome is officially known, the ICE Brent forward month future contract came in at US$109.41 up 2.15 cents or 2% while WTI came in at US$100.00 up 1.17 cents or 1.1 per cent when the Oilholic last checked at 19:00CET. Concurrently, the OPEC basket of crudes price stood at US$107.33 on Monday.

Meanwhile, Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi arrived in Vienna with more than the customary aplomb declaring to the World’s press that his country’s output had topped 10 million bpd, the highest it has been in recent memory. If his idea was to get price hawks Algeria, Iran and Venezuela to acknowledge an appreciable rise in Saudi supply, since the shenanigans of the last meeting of the cartel in June, then sources suggest it just might have succeeded.

The geopolitical pretext of course is that the Saudis wanted to make up for lost Libyan supplies.

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo: OPEC crest © Gaurav Sharma 2011.

We’re nowhere near “Peak oil” er...perhaps!

The 20th World Petroleum Congress could not have possibly gone without a discussion on the Peak Oil hypothesis. In fact, every single day of the Congress saw the topic being discussed in some way, shape or form. So the Oilholic decided to summarise it after the event had ended and before the latest OPEC meeting begins.

Discussing the supply side, starting with the hosts Qatar, Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa said his country was rising to challenge to secure supplies of oil and gas alongside co-operating with members of the energy organisations to which they were aparty, in order to realise this goal. Close on the Qatari Emir’s heels, Kuwaiti oil minister Mohammed Al-Busairi said his country’s crude production capacity is only expected increase between now and 2015 from the current level of 3 million barrels per day (bpd) to 3.5 million bpd, before rising further to 4 million bpd.

Then came the daddy of all statements from Saudi Aramco chief executive Khalid al-Falih. The top man at the world’s largest oil company by proven reserves of barrel of oil equivalent noted that, “rather than the supply scarcity which many predicted, we have adequate oil and gas supplies, due in large part to the contributions of unconventional resources.”

Rising supplies in al-Falih’s opinion will result in deflating the Peak Oil hypothesis. “In fact, we are on the cusp of what I believe will be a new renaissance for petroleum. This belief emanates from new sweeping realities that are reshaping the world of energy, especially petroleum,” he told WPC delegates.

Meanwhile, in context of the wider debate, Petrobras chief executive Jose Sergio Gabrielli, who knows a thing or two about unconventional told delegates that the speed with which the new sources of oil are entering into production has taken many people by surprise, adding to some of the short-term volatility.

“The productivity of our pre-salt offshore drilling moves is exceeding expectations,” he added. Petrobras now hopes to double its oil production by 2020 to over 6.42 billion barrels of oil equivalent. It seems a veritable who’s-who of the oil and gas business lined up in Doha to implicitly or explicitly suggest that Marion King Hubbert – the patron saint of the Peak Oil hypothesis believers – had always failed to take into account technological advancement in terms of crude prospection and recent developments have proven that to be the case.

But for all that was said and done, there is one inimitable chap who cannot possibly be outdone –Total CEO Christophe de Margerie. When asked if Peak Oil was imminent, de Margerie declared, “There will be sufficient oil and gas and energy as a whole to cover the demand. That’s all! Even using pessimistic assumptions, I cannot see how energy demand will grow less than 25% in twenty years time. Today we have roughly the oil equivalent of 260 million bpd (in total energy production), and our expectation for 2030 is 325 million bpd.”

He forecasts that fossil fuels will continue to make up 76% of the energy supply by 2050. “We have plenty of resources, the problem is how to extract the resources in an acceptable manner, being accepted by people, because today a lot of things are not acceptable,” the Total CEO quipped almost to the point of getting all worked up.

He concluded by saying that if unconventional sources of oil, including heavy oil and oil shale, are exploited, there will be sufficient oil to meet today’s consumption for up to 100 years, and for gas the rough estimate is 135 years. Or enough to make Hubbert stir in his grave.

© Gaurav Sharma 2011. Photo: Total's CEO De Margerie discusses Peak Oil at the 20th World Petroleum Congress © Gaurav Sharma 2011.