A 'crude' view from Singapore as oil hits a crazy patch

As the Middle East crisis rages and the global oil market rides a roller-coaster, the Oilholic has headed out East to Singapore - Asia's energy gateway - to find out what contacts here make of the latest turmoil. 

Here's a view of tankers in the waters off Singapore from this blogger's flight - British Airways BA 11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport - as it was coming in to land on Monday. 

It is a customary sight that greets visitors to the City-state. For context, Singapore is a vital link between Middle Eastern crude producers and the high demand centres of Asia. It is among the world's top three trading hubs and has a refining capacity of 1.5 million plus barrels per day with the Jurong Island petrochemical complex at the heart of it all. 

It is also the world's largest bunkering port for marine fuels supplying close to 55 million tons per annum based on data from various industry aggregators. Virtually, every major oil and gas firm has trading operations here, including energy behemoths from India to the UK. 

And Singapore also happens to be a leader in building high-end FPSO - or Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading - units and jack-up rigs. All-in-all, there simply isn't a better place to gauge the market mood in Asia than Singapore, and that mood has turned sour pretty rapidly since the crisis began.  

As yours truly was making his way from London to Singapore, the Brent front-month futures contract hit $100+ per barrel before retreating back to the $90s (on US President Donald's Trump's latest quip on Iran), and Brent-WTI differential came down to sub-$4 at one point. 

Where is all this going in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East is what's worrying the industry here. True there is a lot of non-OPEC, non-Middle Eastern crude out in the market, but for high-demand Asian economies - the Middle East remains its main supplier, and for many the only supplier of crude. 

For several Asian buyers supply restrictions from the Middle East are a source of huge anxiety. According to S&P Global Platts data, the region accounts for nearly 60% of all crude oil and petrochemical feedstock to Asia, with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq being the leading exporters in that order. 

Sourcing from elsewhere is both "problematic and expensive" says one market source. Geography lays bare the expensive bit of that. In normal circumstances, it takes 21 to 28 days from oil from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz to reach China. By comparison, West African or American crude takes 42 to 56 days to reach a comparable Chinese hub. 

Furthermore, you can't just put a new crude configuration or another type from elsewhere in a snap - the problematic bit. That's because the cracking or processing points - as they are known in the industry - for separating crude oil into its various products, need to be adjusted. 

Here's a BBC World Service explainer the Oilholic contributed to a few months back when the Venezuela situation erupted. These are troubling times for many in Asia who can't turn elsewhere and don't have the resourcing diversity that China and India have. 

Two indicators - and rather clear ones too - happen to be that high sulphur bunker fuel delivered in Singapore has risen by over 40%, while jet fuel has risen by 140% (currently trading around ~$230 per barrel) since the conflict began. 

Yours truly will continue to monitor what the coming days greet us with, but that's all for now folks. Next stop is Hong Kong. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Tankers off Singapore as seen from British Airways flight BA11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport on Monday, March 9, 2026. © Gaurav Sharma 2026.

Solid crash course on global oil markets & trading

Of late, the global oil market has seen what can aptly be described as range-bound volatility. No matter what the bulls throw at it, movements of both Brent, the global proxy benchmark, and WTI, the main North American benchmark, have flattered to deceive when it comes to price spikes past $70 per barrel. 

Yet at same time, the price floor has largely held at $50 and barring a global slowdown, few are predicting a Q1 2016-esque slump below $30. Market variables are changing too, not least tweets from US President Donald Trump on oil prices and copious amounts of American light sweet crude flooding the market. 

In such a setting, should understanding the market, making calculated guesstimates on price direction and trading black gold tickle your fancy, be it via a position in the market or a spreadbet, then market commentator Simon Watkins' latest book – An Insider’s Guide To Trading The Global Oil Market – would be well worth your while. In a work of just under 360 pages, the author sums ups the runners and riders, speculators and chancers, players and detractors who have a profound impact on a sentiment driven commodity like crude oil. 

There's detailed analysis, fully illustrated charts linked to points made by the author and tips aplenty. The treatment of risk/reward management is great and Watkins has also taken the trouble of covering the history of the oil business in a concise fashion to give readers a sound understanding of key production centres, demand drivers and geopolitics. 

Recent developments in the China, Middle East, Russia and the US, and the cycle oil cartel OPEC finds itself trapped in, have been covered in some detail providing the essential padding to the outlined oil market history. 

Generic trading methodologies, strategies and cross-market opportunities deployed by proprietary traders around the world as outlined by Watkins make for an engaging narrative. Among the allied trades, the author's take on Saudi Aramco following its IPO, chimes with those in the short-sellers' camp, including this blogger, who note the various complications and lack of transparency associated with the so-called mother of all IPOs that promised so much internationally, but ended up a with mere single-digit percentage float on the domestic Saudi market. 

Overall, Watkins' impressive work cuts through market exaggerations designed to shift sentiment one way or another, and makes readers work towards developing their convictions while being cautious of manipulations, e.g. casual dropping of price rallies that lack legs, black swan events that are anything but, and risk premiums that barely last a trading week instead of having a tangible price supporting impact. 

Ultimately, as the author opines: "If the intricacies are understood, the oil market is a trader's nirvana; it offers far and away the most opportunities out of any other market for high returns." And to that effect, he's provided a very solid crash course that could serve both beginners and those with market exposure looking to brush up and refocus. 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Photo: Front Cover - An Insider’s Guide To Trading The Global Oil Market  © ADVFN Books, 2019.

Discussing Blockchain at ISTrade 2018

Barely had the Oilholic returned from Panama, that it was time to head 1550 miles east to Istanbul, Turkey for ISTrade 2018: The 3rd Energy Trading and Supply Conference on the banks of the Bosphorus. 

Yours truly was invited to speak and moderate a panel on the digitisation of energy trading here with a heavy emphasis on - you guessed it blockchain; an emerging and perennially hot topic at energy trading events which are rapidly beginning to feel like technology events!

More on that later, but first on to 'crude' thoughts, and it seems feedback from the great and good of energy trading in Turkey, on this splash and dash work visit to the country, reconfirms one's thoughts that oil is likely to stay in relatively predictable price bracket of $60-70 per barrel, even if geopolitical risk briefly props it up to $70 per barrel. 

Away from the crude price, ISTrade 2018 delegates also noted how trading arms of 'Big Oil' companies, and established commodities trading houses like Vitol, Gunvor and Glencore and the likes, are investing in blockchain and are being exceptionally candid about it.

It set the scene nicely to discuss energy trading in relation to emerging technology, and the Oilholic's take was that it's a one way street to process efficiencies and optimisation. The market can expect more of the same. To discuss the subject, this blogger was joined on the panel by Ashutosh Shashtri, Director of EnerStrat Consulting and Serkan Sahin, Manager, Europe and Africa Oil and Gas Research at Thomson Reuters.

Elsewhere, at IStrade 2018, a plethora of crucial topics were discussed. Here is the Oilholic's detailed report for Forbes from the event. One final point, before taking your leave, is to flag up a Rystad Energy research note that arrived over the weekend. The independent energy research and consulting firm reckons US oilfield services have more to lose compared to Chinese peers from current trade tensions between both countries initially fanned by President Donald Trump.

On April 3, the US published a list of approximately 1,300 Chinese exports that could see tariffs in the near future. Not to be outdone, the Chinese government promised and delivered additional retaliation.

These potential Chinese tariffs include plastics, petrochemicals, petroleum products and specialty chemicals. "For an oil and gas industry looking to rebound in a higher oil price environment, these tariffs necessitate monitoring. More specifically, oilfield service companies must now take pause," says Matthew Fitzsimmons, Vice President of Oilfield Service Research at Rystad Energy.

American companies Clariant, Ecolab, Hexion and NOV each have had significant revenues from China in the past few years. NOV brought in revenues upwards of $561 million during 2017 from their fibreglass and composite tubular businesses in China.

"The giant service company NOV was anticipated to have over $650 million in annual revenues from China for the remainder of the Trump presidency. A trade war between the two nations could certainly impact their ability to grow in this market," Fitzsimmons adds. 

Hexion, a chemistry company offering oilfield drilling chemicals, had $309 million in revenue from China during 2017. Rystad Energy estimates Hexion's Chinese business could grow to $350 million in 2019, if it were not impacted by trade tariffs. Continued Chinese and American trade tensions could have an adverse effect on these companies.

While less volume is at stake, the trade tensions also give reason for concern to Chinese service companies. Hilong and Drill Pipe Master are two pipe fabricators that were impacted by initial US tariffs. However, these companies have strong domestic customers and diverse international clients that will soften adverse effects from trade tensions.

Well there you have it, although many here in Istanbul are hoping things would calm down between the Trump White House and China, with cooler heads prevailing eventually. That's all from Istanbul folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo1: Glimpses of ISrade 2018, April 9-10, Istanbul, Turkey © Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo 2: The Oilholic speaking at IStrade 2018. 

An instructive approach to energy trading tenets

In the challenging world of energy trading, fortune favours the prepared. Whether one is brave enough (or not) comes second and not having a clear strategy would be borderline foolishness.

Given such a backdrop, almost inevitably, there are resources aplenty targeting those who feel the need to be better informed and equipped. Among the latest reference sources, industry veteran and academic Dr Iris Marie Mack’s book Energy Trading and Risk Management published by Wiley is a pretty compelling one.

The Oilholic instantly warmed up to the book barely a chapter in, struck by its practical approach, balanced tone, contextualised narrative and a genuine desire on the author’s part to define terms and methodologies for the benefit of those with a mid-tier investment knowledge base.

Furthermore, the instructive narrative seeks to bring about a holistic understanding of how energy markets work to begin with, leading on to an adequate treatment of risk, speculation and portfolio diversity tenets. The format in which Energy Trading and Risk Management is minutely sub-sectioned point to point is simply splendid. So should you wish to salami slice and pick up bits of the subject, it would serve you just as well as a cover to cover read through.

Conversely, if you are confident enough to skip the basics and go straight through to concepts and formulas, the sequential flow of text in each chapter helps you breeze through basic definitions usually quoted in boxed text on to what you are after.

Accompanying the text are charts, case studies, background briefs, notes on macro drivers and definitions at various points split into ten weighty sub-sectioned chapters in a book of around 270 pages. From contango to the modern portfolio theory, from risk management in the renewables business to mitigation in an ever changing market climate – it’s all there and duly referenced.

While the Oilholic appreciated Dr Mack's work in its entirety, a chapter on exotic energy derivatives (which follows a passage on the plain vanilla variety) stood out for this blogger. One would be happy to recommend this title to energy professionals, fellow energy analysts and those with a desire to pursue energy trading as a career pathway.

It would most definitely appeal to entrants finding their feet in the market as well as established participants wanting to refresh their thinking and methodologies. Ultimately, for every reader this title is bound to morph from being an informative and educational book at the point of first reading, to an invaluable reference source as and when subsequently needed. That makes it worthy of any energy sector professional’s bookshelf.

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© Gaurav Sharma, October, 2014. Photo: Front Cover – Energy Trading and Risk Management © Wiley Publishers, May, 2014.