Wednesday, December 04, 2013

OPEC holds quota at 30 mbpd, El-Badri stays on

We’ve been here before dear readers, we’ve been here before. Main headline at the conclusion of the 164th OPEC conference here in Vienna is a familiar one. OPEC’s production quota stays at 30 million barrels per day and Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri – long overdue to step down – stays on in his post, as member nations torn between Iranian and Saudi tussles fail to agree on a candidate for the post. So at the end of it all a battle-weary El-Badri, took the stage as usual. Not entirely bereft of a sense of humour, the secretary general had a few quips, the odd joke, brushed off scribes pokes to say that the cartel had considered the global economic outlook which remains “uncertain with the fragility of the Euro-zone remaining a cause for concern.”
 
“We was also noted that, although world oil demand is forecast to increase during the year 2014, this will be more than offset by the projected increase in non-OPEC supply. Nevertheless, in the interest of maintaining market equilibrium, the OPEC decided to maintain the current production level of 30 million bpd.”
 
In taking this decision, OPEC said it had reconfirmed its members’ readiness to swiftly respond to developments which could have an adverse impact on the maintenance of an orderly and balanced oil market.
 
El-Badri's tenure as Secretary General carries on for a period of one year, with effect from January 1, 2014. As the Oilholic noted in an earlier post, OPEC had a chance to send a message but missed a trick here. Despite the threat of incremental non-OPEC barrels, it failed to present a united front leaving El-Badri to carry the can in front of the world’s press and fly the OPEC flag.
 
The man himself though had a thing or two to say or avoid saying. Coming on the latter bit first, El-Badri declined comment on what increasing Iranian production would mean for the overall production quota. He also described incremental non-OPEC supply as "good for global consumers", acknowledged OPEC’s concerns about shale and said he was monitoring the supply side situation.
 
Yet later, he cut short an analyst’s question saying people should not “exaggerate” the impact of incremental or additional project barrels. “You keep going down this track and very soon you will see both prospective and thriving E&P jurisdictions lose their appetite for investing in new fields and enhancing existing facilities.” The Oilholic thinks the Secretary General has a point, albeit the point itself is a bit exaggerated.
 
One key theme to emerge was that OPEC members’ focus for exports was firmly to the East now. Several delegates and El-Badri himself acknowledged that supplies heading to the US – especially from Nigeria, Angola and Venezuela – were being diverted to far Eastern markets. The US it seems “wasn’t a priority” for OPEC in the first place; it’s even less so now. That's your lot from OPEC HQ! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!
 
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© Gaurav Sharma 2013. Photo: OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri at the conclusion of 164th OPEC meeting of ministers in Vienna, Austria © Gaurav Sharma December 4, 2013.

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