Friday, December 08, 2017

Medium term oil forecast unaltered by OPEC & non-OPEC action

One week on from OPEC and non-OPEC producers' decision, to roll over their ongoing oil production cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to the end of 2018, there's no bullish frenzy in the crude futures market.

In the Oilholic's humble opinion, that was never their intention in the first place anyway. The primary purpose was to keep the OPEC put in place, and protect the oil price floor in 2018 at $50 per barrel, using Brent as a benchmark.

Given that the global proxy benchmark is currently well clear of $60, and lurking near 2-year highs; most analysts would say it's a case of job done for now. 

That said, the current range is the new normal, and there's little on the horizon to suggest otherwise. For instance, following the OPEC meeting, ratings agency Moody's said it would keep its medium-term oil price estimates at $40-$60 per barrel. 

"Recent higher oil prices have been supported by global economic growth forecasts, production restraints and increased geopolitical risk," said Terry Marshall, a Moody's Senior Vice President. "But risks to prices persist, including reduced consumption due to higher prices, as well as increased supply."

It's a view this blogger shares, and few analysts in the City of London would suggest otherwise. Of course, as expected, the number of US rigs has risen too with Brent prices firming up above $60 and WTI fast approaching the mark. There maybe an upside in the wake of OPEC's decision, but the US shale drag is well and truly alive and kicking. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2017. Photo: Oil extraction site © Lukoil.

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