Tuesday, May 08, 2018

In Houston Town To Trump's Iranian Frowns

The Oilholic is back in Houston, Texas for another round of events and networking. However, getting stuck in one's hotel room watching CNN on a sunny Texan afternoon certainly wasn't part of the plan.

Of course, with US President Donald Trump taking on himself to single-handedly tearing up the Iran Nuclear deal, there was little choice but add to the afternoon news-watchers ranks. 

And with customary aplomb, the Donald annulled the US end of a "very bad deal" with Tehran at 2pm Eastern. It's something he had always criticised, and had promised he'd annul if he won the Presidency. So, the Oilholic wonders, why is the market surprised? 

Here are one's thoughts on what the President's move could mean for the global supply and demand dynamic via a Forbes post. In fact, Moody's Analytics reckons Trump's sanctions have the power to knock off 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude off the global market. 

But given the President's move is unilateral, unlike Barack Obama's multilateral sanctions, the volume would be less than half of what his predecessor managed inflict on the Iranian before they came to the table (i.e. 1 million bpd).

Of course, both leading up to and in the hours after Trump's announcement, both Brent and WTI fell by as much as 3% only to gain 2%, before ending the day firmly on a bullish note. While this blogger is not offering investment advice, a bit of caution is advised.

The Oilholic, for the moment is minded to stick to his average Brent price forecast range of $65-75 per barrel. These are early days, much needs to unfold here. But that's all for the moment from Houston folks. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Photo: Billboard in Houston, Texas, USA © Gaurav Sharma, May 2018. 

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