Crudely blockading the blockaders

The Middle East crisis and Iran War have quite frankly taken a turn for the bizarre. 

That's after talks between the US and Iran broke down in Islamabad over the weekend, and global markets were greeted by President Donald Trump's announcement that the US navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. 

The key maritime artery has been the subject to threats of a virtual closure from Iran since hostilities began on February 28. 

A fragile ceasefire agreed last Tuesday - for peace talks - holds for now, but for how long and to what effect? So, are the Iranian blockaders being blockaded by the Americans? That's what its looking like for now. 

The US blockade took effect at 15:00 BST with Iran saying it would not surrender under threats, and US Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Tehran of "economic terrorism."

As the drama took another intraday turn, Brent and WTI futures again came near to touching $100 per barrel before falling back. But the physical market is leading the futures market in attracting a spot premium of $20 to $44 per barrel at key trading hubs in Asia, according to sources. 

Speaking at a forum in Washington DC, US on Monday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted crude oil prices will remain high and possibly keep rising until the Strait of Hormuz opens up. He added that prices will hit their peak sometime in the next few weeks before declining. 

"But once the conflict ends, and energy starts flowing again, you'll start to see downward pressure. That will take some time," he said. We all await that day Sir, but right now it seems pretty elusive. 

Meanwhile, as the crisis continued, so did the Oilholic's commentary on the global airwaves with the BBC World Service radio's Newshour programme, Al Jazeera English and India's NDTV News evening bulletins on Thursday and Friday. 

It is yours truly's belief that both equity and the energy markets jumped the gun a bit when the announcement of the ceasefire came nearly a week ago. 

The vague ceasefire between US and Iran has given Tehran flimsy excuses to continue to subject maritime traffic - including a fifth of the world's crude oil - to threats.

Or, in Iran's convoluted logic, a $2 million toll per crossing. Not only is this contrary to international law, Oman - with whom Iran shares the maritime border of the Strait and wishes to share the revenue with - wants no part in it. The international community therefore needs to rally and intervene but the situation remains fragile and uncertain.

Furthermore, as the Oilholic has recently noted - a risk premium of at least $10 per barrel is going to stay baked in until the remainder of the year, even if peace were to prevail tomorrow. We are long way away from that. Meanwhile, the disconnect between the futures and physical markets, and the inflationary pressures of high oil prices will continue. 

That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: White House, Washington DC, US © PublicDomainPictures / Pixabay, February 2012. 

The 'crude' day after the night before!

It's the day after the night before when the Iran War threatened to escalate even further. Instead, we ended up in a contentious ceasefire between the US and Iran, with divergent views on what it entails or doesn't. 

For Iran, the ceasefire includes the stoppage of the bombardment of Lebanon by Israel and not just its territory, but according the US and Israel that isn't the case. 

Iran implausibly claims the US has agreed to all of its demands. The US claims Iran has agreed to all its, and that victory was theirs. And apparently, the Strait of Hormuz is completely open but also not open and faces restrictions given whose word to take. Iran also wants to charge a toll for Strait of Hormuz transits in partnership with Oman, while the latter is rubbishing the idea! 

Meanwhile, Israel continues to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and all warring parties concerned have rushed to declare victory in a war that still appears far from over. Reports of Iranian drones and Israeli missiles also continue to hit the wires. 

As the world pours over differing versions of a supposed 10-point plan for peace being discussed by the US and Iran, unable to ascertain who is or isn't fudging the list, the Oilholic's trading sources in Singapore suggest there's still severe stress in physical market. A tight tug for currently available crude oil barrels continues. 

By some accounts, that amounts to as much as a $20 per barrel premium to Brent in Asian spot markets. So, this isn't over yet and the overnight ceasefire might just be a brief stoppage between further military skirmishes interspersed with tough negotiations. That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

Notes on a 'see-how-it-goes' crude market

As we enter the sixth week of the Iran War, extreme levels of volatility continue to persist in the oil futures market. As a recap, given how things stand at the time of publishing this blog, Brent is up by around 6% on the past five sessions, 20% on the month, and 80% from three months ago. 

With huge price fluctuations and swings on each social media post, insult, threat or potential morsel of de-escalation from Washington and Tehran, price modelling and guestimates are proving very difficult to work on. 

As the Oilholic said in a recent interview on the BBC, this is very much a 'see-how-it-goes' market, with a risk premium baked in even if the crisis were to end tomorrow, and one marked by severe oil shipping 'deliverability issues' caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Here's more on those deliverability issues in yours truly's latest op-ed for Forbes and why WTI futures traded at a premium to Brent last week. The Brent-WTI spread turned on its head on Thursday (April 2) with the global benchmark Brent trading at a discount to its US counterpart for the first time in four years and only the fifth such instance since 2010, as Asian buyers queued up to pay a premium for non-Middle Eastern crude, with a sizeable volume of it coming from the states. 

Overall, the economic pain of all this volatility is being acutely felt in emerging Asian markets, particularly reliant on Middle Eastern crude. 

We have tales of four-day working weeks being introduced from Pakistan to the Philippines, several Asian air carriers (e.g. AirAsia, Cathay Pacific, Korean Air, Air India, etc.) raising passenger surcharges and fuel buying restrictions in various markets. 

All of this is coming to Europe pretty soon if this continues, and perhaps in some ways already has if consumer sentiment surveys are anything to go by. As for a potential end of the conflict coming sometime soon with a fresh threat / deadline from US President Donald Trump - this blogger would say that a six-week conclusion from Feb 28 has been widely discussed around the market for some time now. 

It's the time it would take for West African or American crude cargoes to arrive in Asia (double of what it typically takes a Middle Eastern tanker to get to Singapore) to relieve short-term pressures. Can it happen? Will it happen? Iran and the US may be far apart but the channels of communication are certainly open. 

On the latest escalation and de-escalation with Tuesday's deadline from Trump both WTI and Brent are down by around 2% to 5% at 22:48 pm BST, with WTI's premium still intact. So, the only thing to (still) say here is - we'll see how it goes.

That's all for the moment folks in these crazy times for the crude market. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Oil pump jack building blocks model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous © BBC, March 2026. 

Launching Global Autonomous Maturity Report 2026

Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric (left) and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, launch Schneider Electric's Global Autonomous Operations Maturity Report at CERAWeek 2026 in Houston, Texas, US.

As an energy market analyst and media commentator here at CERAWeek 2026, the Oilholic believes it is pretty clear that autonomous operations are no longer a distant ambition — they’re already reshaping the competitive landscape of the global energy and chemicals sector.

That's why yours truly was pleased to contribute to Schneider Electric’s new Global Autonomous Maturity Report which dives into the digital capabilities now defining operational performance in one of the world’s most demanding industries. 

It was launched at CERAWeek 2026 by Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric. Here’s a snapshot of what the research reveals:

• Where regions truly stand on the autonomy curve — and why some markets are quietly emerging as leaders.
• What’s driving the shift toward autonomous technology, from productivity gains to cost resilience and the pursuit of sustained competitive advantage.
• Which technologies matter most, including AI, cybersecurity, edge computing, advanced process control, and the expanding role of software-defined automation.

For anyone looking to understand how autonomy is evolving from concept to core strategy, this report offers timely, data-backed insight.

Read the findings and download the report here: tinyurl.com/4y9hcn4f

More musings from Houston soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Devan Pillay, President, Heavy Industries, Schneider Electric (left) and Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst launch Schneider Electric's Global Autonomous Operations Maturity Report at CERAWeek 2026 © Schneider Electric, March 2026. 

Introducing The Critical Mass Show at CERAWeek

 

The Oilholic has spent decades covering energy markets and wears many hats as the readers of this blog may already know. At CERAWeek 2026 - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global - yours truly is delighted to announce that he's now going deep on nuclear too!

Last month, the Oilholic launched a new show - available in both podcast and webcast formats - to explain why nuclear matters, where the narrative is wrong, and what the industry actually looks like from the inside.

The aptly named Critical Mass Show takes you from the heart of nuclear energy to the frontlines of geopolitics, and dives deep into the trends, catalysts, and power players driving the uranium market.

Through sharp, informed discussions with industry leaders and experts, yours truly, the show's team and its wonderful guests uncover the hidden stories and the big picture dynamics in a space that’s becoming impossible to ignore. 

The show's first three guests include Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association, Ashutosh Shastri, Master Fueller, The Worshipful Company of Fuellers, UK and Lucian Pugliaresi, President of at Energy Policy Research Foundation, Washington D.C.

These conversations are just getting started. They will soon feature several industry experts yours truly connected with at CERAWeek 2026 who will soon appear on the show recorded from its studio in London as its exciting journey continues. So, watch this space on Apple podcasts, Spotify and YouTube, and welcome to the Critical Mass Show folks. It would be a privilege to have your company. 

Sincere thanks also to uranium.io for sponsoring the show and supporting thoughtful discussions in a space that deserves more depth. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. Video: Critical Mass Show Promo © https://critical-mass.io/

Geopolitics dominates opening day at CERAWeek 2026

The Oilholic is back in Houston for another CERAWeek - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global. This year's event is taking place at a time of the most profound crisis in the energy market as the US, Israel and Iran trade missiles, drones, barbs, and more. 

Unsurprisingly, the conflict that began on February 28 dominated the discourse on day one of the global event. Many industry insiders the Oilholic spoke to lent further credence to the belief that the war will likely not last longer than six weeks. That date would be April 9 and we aren't that far from it. So, assuming peace is restored on the date or thereabouts, where next for the oil price?

Conversations with traders confirm, the Oilholic's own modelling in that eventuality - a baking in of a minimum 10% premium for the remainder of 2026. That's because even if peace arrives to the region tomorrow, it will take months to restore production. 

Which, for a market that was staring at a pre-war surplus, will now see supply constriction last for much of the year. The premium of that dynamic would be reflected in Brent prices till the end of the year. 

Speaking at the event, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted Asia would be worse off, but said the Trump administration would increase the volume of its crude supplies heading to the region. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth reflected what many have been saying here in Houston that the Iran War has not been fully priced into the oil market. 

Meanwhile, addressing the event via video link, Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Group CEO of ADNOC, said weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz was "economic terrorism" against every nation and this sentiment is being reflected across the global economy. Here's yours truly's full report on the morning's proceedings from day one of CERAWeek for Forbes. 

Elsewhere, there was another interesting development that made attendees sit up an take notice. The US Department of the Interior and TotalEnergies announced an agreement on Monday for the company to redirect capital from "expensive, unreliable offshore wind leases toward affordable, reliable natural gas projects that will provide secure energy for hardworking Americans."

As part of the agreement, TotalEnergies has committed to investing approximately $1 billion - the value of its renounced offshore wind leases - in oil and natural gas and LNG production in the United States. Following the French major's "new" investment, the US will subsequently reimburse the company dollar-for-dollar, up to the amount they paid in lease purchases for offshore wind. Additionally, TotalEnergies has pledged not to develop any new US offshore wind projects.

“This agreement is yet another win for President Donald Trump’s commitment to affordable and reliable energy for all Americans,” said US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. 

“Offshore wind is one of the most expensive, unreliable, environmentally disruptive, and subsidy-dependent schemes ever forced on American ratepayers and taxpayers. We welcome TotalEnergies’ commitment to developing projects that produce dependable, affordable power to lower Americans' monthly bills while providing secure US baseload power today—and in the future.”  

For his part, Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, said: "We are pleased to sign this settlement agreements with the DOI and to support the Administration’s Energy Policy. Considering that the development of offshore wind projects is not in the country’s interest, we have decided to renounce offshore wind development in the US, in exchange for the reimbursement of the lease fees. 

"Furthermore, these agreements, under which we will reinvest the refunded lease fees to finance the construction of the 29 Mt Rio Grande LNG plant and the development of our oil and gas activities, allows us to support the development of US gas production and export. These investments will contribute to supplying Europe with much-needed LNG from the U.S. and provide gas for US data center development. We believe this is a more efficient use of capital in the US."

It's started off with a bang folks, but that's all for now. More musings from Houston to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: CERAWeek 2026 signage. Photo II: US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum (left) and Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies at CERAWeek 2026 © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. 

As the energy crisis escalates - a view from Hong Kong

The Oilholic has wound up what can only be described as a fruitful, productive, busy, analytical, critical, conversational, argumentative and very frantic week of energy market research out in Far East, rounded off in Hong Kong. 

With the Middle East crisis now past its second week and not (yet) showing signs of easing, near-term implications and geopolitical tussles are becoming fairly apparent.

One look at the newspaper headlines over the past week in this part of the world saw claims of air passenger surcharges hike by regional carriers creep up from 35% to 100%. That's unsurprising, given jet fuel has spiked 140% and rising since the crisis began. 

Overall, the near-term inflationary impact of the oil price spike (currently seesawing either side of $100 using Brent as a benchmark) would likely be bigger in Asia, outages of LPG will play a bigger role in the Indian subcontinent, while the absence of Qatari LNG - triggering a highest bidder takes all mentality in global LNG markets - would hit Europe the hardest. Of course, it is bad news all around in general. 

Most in Asia are preparing for near-term inflation based on the logic that the conflict would end in four to six weeks. That's a punt most traders appear to have taken based on The Oilholic's conversations in Singapore, Tokyo as well as here. But beyond that all bets would likely be off. 

Few other chains of thought also emerged over the course of the past week. First, people in this part of the world are surprised over the complete lack of leadership from Europe during such a profound crisis. Most here see the Europeans as sniping from the sidelines so far. 

Secondly, no one buys that China is only unhappy with the US and Israel for having started the crisis. Beijing is equally miffed with the Iranians. While public condemnation for Israel and US has been coming since the start of the war, on Wednesday, China also directly criticised Iran for disrupting global crude supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, something it had been doing via private diplomatic channels. Whether or not, Iran's oil is reaching China won't move Beijing. Iran only services a small portion of China's demand bulk of which is met by other Gulf producers whom Tehran is bombing. 

Thirdly, how does it all come to an end? The answer to that isn't terribly clear just yet, but US attacks on Iran's oil exporting hub Kharg Island as a warning, an offer of both insuring or escorting energy cargoes in the Strait of Hormuz and pushing allies to join in the effort to safeguard shipping shows the White House is pushing things towards the "business end" of the conflict. 

Of course, should all of this come to a conclusion or some ceasefire of sorts be achieved say within six weeks from the starting date of hostilities on February 28, it will take better parts of another four to six months for global energy flows to normalise. 

The Oilholic discussed these various permutations in interviews and market commentary with the BBC and TRT World while out in Hong Kong. Yours truly also spoke on an Energy Connects webinar with fellow panellists Joe McMonigle, President & CEO of Global Center for Energy Analysis and former Secretary General of International Energy Forum (IEF), Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst, Wood Mackenzie, and Chiranjib Sengupta, Editor-in-Chief of Energy Connects. And then rounded-off the week by speaking in a podcast with Gulf Intelligence. 

These are trying times indeed. The global economy is facing a geopolitical and military crisis that may upend the energy market over the near-term, cause medium-term ripple effects and perhaps bake a $5-10 barrel risk premium in oil prices for the remainder of the year, even after the current crisis ends. 

On that note, it's time to bid goodbye to Hong Kong and Asia Pacific for now. It was great to be back in the region. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: A view of Hong Kong from Victoria Peak © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, energy market analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, speak on the BBC, March 11, 2026. © BBC, March 2026.

On batteries, energy storage and IPOs in Hong Kong

The Oilholic arrived in Hong Kong from Singapore on Tuesday, took a break from market commentary on the Middle East crisis to head straight to The Battery Show Asia 2026. 

It is the world's leading battery exhibition and conference, that was held here from March 10 to 12 at the city's AsiaWorld-Expo, near the airport. 

The event - co-located with Energy Storage Asia and Mobility Tech Asia - offered wide-ranging access to new markets for industry participants both large and small, cross-sector synergies, and high-value partnerships. It saw over 20,000 delegates and speakers - present company included - from 130-plus countries. 

Alongside the content agenda spread over three days was an exhibition with over 350 exhibitors. What really impressed the Oilholic was the level of engagement across the entire energy storage, battery solutions deployment and recycling value chain. 

Many industry facets were examined at the event, including a detailed examination of how the past year turned out. And the figures are pretty interesting. 

In 2025, global annual capacity additions exceeded 100GW while the cost of lithium-ion battery pack dropped below $110/kWh. 

Additionally, looming large over the market is the dominance of one nation - China - which held just around 55% of all global capacity additions last year. 

The market valuation - in US dollar terms - is pretty compelling too, and growing. Deploying various methodologies, major industry aggregators put the global battery energy storage system (BESS) market to have been in the range of $30-$50 billion in 2025. The Oilholic would say that even the lower end of that range points to a rapid China-led expansion. 

As a special administrative region (SAR) of China and one of the world's leading centres of finance, Hong Kong is a major industry enabler with plenty of battery storage and technology related initial public offerings (or IPOs) making their mark on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. 

That's why yours truly headed to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, upon the conclusion of the event on Thursday, to discuss the emerging direction of travel in some detail. 

In 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market delivered a standout performance with nearly HK$ 300 billion (US$38.5 billion) raised across 100 listings, marking the strongest year in terms of funds raised on the HKEX since 2022. 

This sterling performance put HKEX at the top of the global IPO list, with both US exchanges second and third, and the National Stock Exchange of India and the Shanghai Stock Exchange, securing the fourth and fifth places, respectively.

In a complete contrast, London dropped out of the top 20 managing only five IPOs and had a catastrophic year after falling even below post-financial crisis 2009 levels. A decent part of HKEX's outstanding performance was driven by battery storage and technology firms, something that's clearly reflected in the data, and the conversations the Oilholic has held over the past three days in Hong Kong. 

Here is detailed report on the subject for Forbes. Have a read. As always, feedback and pointers are most welcome. Also, here is another one of this blogger's Forbes features following an interview at The Battery Show Asia with GRST - a firm that's proposing a unique water-based battery recycling solution for the industry. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: The Battery Show Asia 2026 in Hong Kong. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at The Battery Show Asia 2026. Photo III: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Central District, Hong Kong. © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.

A 'crude' view from Singapore as oil hits a crazy patch

As the Middle East crisis rages and the global oil market rides a roller-coaster, the Oilholic has headed out East to Singapore - Asia's energy gateway - to find out what contacts here make of the latest turmoil. 

Here's a view of tankers in the waters off Singapore from this blogger's flight - British Airways BA 11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport - as it was coming in to land on Monday. 

It is a customary sight that greets visitors to the City-state. For context, Singapore is a vital link between Middle Eastern crude producers and the high demand centres of Asia. It is among the world's top three trading hubs and has a refining capacity of 1.5 million plus barrels per day with the Jurong Island petrochemical complex at the heart of it all. 

It is also the world's largest bunkering port for marine fuels supplying close to 55 million tons per annum based on data from various industry aggregators. Virtually, every major oil and gas firm has trading operations here, including energy behemoths from India to the UK. 

And Singapore also happens to be a leader in building high-end FPSO - or Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading - units and jack-up rigs. All-in-all, there simply isn't a better place to gauge the market mood in Asia than Singapore, and that mood has turned sour pretty rapidly since the crisis began.  

As yours truly was making his way from London to Singapore, the Brent front-month futures contract hit $100+ per barrel before retreating back to the $90s (on US President Donald's Trump's latest quip on Iran), and Brent-WTI differential came down to sub-$4 at one point. 

Where is all this going in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East is what's worrying the industry here. True there is a lot of non-OPEC, non-Middle Eastern crude out in the market, but for high-demand Asian economies - the Middle East remains its main supplier, and for many the only supplier of crude. 

For several Asian buyers supply restrictions from the Middle East are a source of huge anxiety. According to S&P Global Platts data, the region accounts for nearly 60% of all crude oil and petrochemical feedstock to Asia, with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq being the leading exporters in that order. 

Sourcing from elsewhere is both "problematic and expensive" says one market source. Geography lays bare the expensive bit of that. In normal circumstances, it takes 21 to 28 days from oil from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz to reach China. By comparison, West African or American crude takes 42 to 56 days to reach a comparable Chinese hub. 

Furthermore, you can't just put a new crude configuration or another type from elsewhere in a snap - the problematic bit. That's because the cracking or processing points - as they are known in the industry - for separating crude oil into its various products, need to be adjusted. 

Here's a BBC World Service explainer the Oilholic contributed to a few months back when the Venezuela situation erupted. These are troubling times for many in Asia who can't turn elsewhere and don't have the resourcing diversity that China and India have. 

Two indicators - and rather clear ones too - happen to be that high sulphur bunker fuel delivered in Singapore has risen by over 40%, while jet fuel has risen by 140% (currently trading around ~$230 per barrel) since the conflict began. 

Yours truly will continue to monitor what the coming days greet us with, but that's all for now folks. Next stop is Hong Kong. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Tankers off Singapore as seen from British Airways flight BA11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport on Monday, March 9, 2026. © Gaurav Sharma 2026.

Nearly a week in to the latest Middle East crisis

It's nearly coming up to a week since the latest Middle East crisis began last Saturday, after US and Israeli jets pounded Iran and took out its senior leadership. Tehran retaliated by hitting targets across the region embroiling several oil and gas producing Gulf states in a war that isn't of their choosing. 

The skirmishes continue at the time of writing and the conflict is threatening to spiral out of control. Iran - which physically does not need to close the key maritime artery that's the Strait of Hormuz and actually can't - has threatened to do so. It has spooked both shipping firms and insurers thereby severely reducing transits in the Strait. 

Brent and WTI front-month contracts are above $80 levels, with the former nearing $90 on Friday. Unsurprisingly, the Oilholic has spent the entirety of the week providing client intel and analysis, alongside changing travel plans to the region with air-space(s) shut and media commentary.

Natural gas prices are another matter of concern after Qatar stopped its LNG exports on Monday knocking off 20% of the world's LNG supply. It triggered a jump of over 40% to begin with before calm returned followed by another rise. Prices are higher at the moment but not at Ukraine War levels yet when the initial shock of that event hit the markets and lurked around for much of 2022. 

Switching back to thoughts on the oil price - firstly, the reason we are not yet talking of $150 oil prices (or at least this blogger isn't) is largely thanks to the comfort cushion of non-OPEC crude barrels. Let's not forget that the market was heading for a surplus before the conflict started. Secondly, oil is not just a story of supply but one of demand too, which is looking pretty lacklustre in the run up to the conflict. 

Secondly, what is US President Donald Trump's end goal? Quite possibly, some say almost certainly - regime change - and/or a destruction of both Iran's nuclear programme as well as its ability to militarily threaten the region directly or via proxies like Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Hamas. All of these perhaps cannot be met via an aerial bombardment. 

So where is the crisis going - an achieving of partial objectives and an off-ramp for the warring sides? A prolonged conflict? That's anybody's guess. But right now the market appears to be betting on an easing of hostilities within four to six weeks based on the soundbites from the White House. 

If that happens to be the case, the market bulls currently out in force will enjoy a short-lived outing, and the perma-bulls are unlikely to get much joy. Since last Saturday, yours truly has also been discussing this and much more with publications, radio and television networks including Tagesspiegel, BBC World Service Radio, Energy Connects, Arabian Gulf Business Insights, Radio New Zealand, Al Jazeera English, TRT World and BBC World News. 

That'd be seven days, eight media outlets, discussing where all this is heading to, all alongside modelling and making predictions for clients during an unprecedented global event. 

Overall, the crude oil market finds itself in uncharted waters and a profound geopolitical crisis. But the price risk is at present manageable with OPEC+ currently somewhat of a spectator to what's unfolding. While a prolonged conflict could change that, we are not there yet. 

Should we get there, high oil (and gas) prices would put inflationary pressures on consumers and industries to begin with felt most acutely in Europe and Asia. However, the domino effect would subsequently dent demand and global economic growth. 

We're in for a roller-coaster over the coming weeks. Let's see what the coming days greet us with first. That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo (Top to Bottom): Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, on BBC News (March 6, 2026), Al Jazeera English (March 2, 2026) and TRT World (March 5, 2026). © Copyright courtesy of BBC, Al Jazeera and TRT World, March 2026.

Media missives from India Energy Week 2026

India Energy Week 2026 drew to a close on January 30, as the Oilholic rounded off an engaging week out in Goa. Yours truly hosted pivotal industry panel sessions and fireside chats at the event on subjects ranging from city gas distribution networks to the evolving energy mix. 

This blogger also had the privilege of hosting high ranking officials from India, US, Canada and Oman. In the between the speaking, meeting and greeting, yours truly also wrote plenty of missives via the keyboard for Forbes, Energy Connects and of course this blog. 

All blog entries for India Energy Week 2026 are below: 

• Speaking and moderating at India Energy Week 2026
• India Energy Week sessions to be hosted by yours truly
• IEW 2026 Days I & II: A $500bn investment opportunity?
• IEW 2026 Days III & IV: Speaking, meeting & greeting

And here are selected Forbes copies in chronological order based on soundbites and insights from the event:

• India Ups Energy Clout With Renewables Surge And 40-Plus Oil Suppliers, January 23, 2026
• India’s Biofuel Blended Gasoline Initiative Enters Overdrive Mode, January 30, 2026
• Canada Nears $3 Billion Uranium Deal With India, May Be Inked In March, February 1, 2026

And finally, here are a couple of reports on the Oilholic's panels by Energy Connects and an Indian renewables preview by yours truly ahead of the event: 

• Mapping India's rise as a superpower of unconventional energy, January 12, 2026
• Global South nations look to renewables to tackle energy access and climate risks, January 28, 2026
• Canada eyes doubling trade relations with India to $60bn by end of decade, January 28, 2026

That's a wrap for this year's India Energy Week. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, January 2026. Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at India Energy Week 2026 © Photo: Gaurav Sharma, January 2026. 

IEW 2026 Days III & IV: Speaking, meeting & greeting

Days three and four brought another 60+ insightful sessions for the benefit of the attending delegates. There was plenty to deliberate on from downstream AI to smart-grids, biofuels to coal's evolving role in the energy mix. 

On the latter subject, the Oilholic hosted his fifth and final session of the event on the topic of 'coal’s evolving role in a secure energy mix: charting a balanced and pragmatic approach.' Panellists included Vikram Dev Dutt, Secretary, Ministry of Coal, Government of India, Kyle Haustveit, Assistant Secretary for Hydrocarbons and Geothermal Energy, US Department of Energy and B. Sairam, Chairman and MD, Coal India Limited.

Despite the global push against it, coal remains a leading source of electricity generation across the world, providing viable power for millions, as well as underpinning energy security and economic growth.

It is also believed in many quarters that coal demand will remain at elevated levels until at least the end of the decade, and furthermore, the exponentially growing boom in AI data centres is creating a new need for the readiness and consistency of coal-fired plants. 

So, with coal set to remain an essential component of the energy mix for decades beyond its projected peak in 2030, the panellists discussed how can this reality be reconciled with the need for energy transformation. 

From integrating Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs) and Clean Coal Utilisation (CCU) solutions, and implementing AI-driven efficiency measures, to enabling co-firing with biomass or hydrogen fuels, advanced technology innovations are the most viable routes to reducing coal’s ongoing carbon footprint while meeting energy demand. Their widespread adoption, however, will be reliant on enabling policies, financing mechanisms and incentivising private sector engagement. 

Bearing these points in mind, the panellists offered insights on optimising coal’s socioeconomic benefits as a core component of the mid-term energy mix, while minimising its environmental impact through climate technology and digital efficiencies. Officials from both the US and India also advocated for a pragmatic approach to coal and its usage. 

Additionally, Assistant Secretary Haustveit revealed the launch and repurposing of the National Energy Technology Laboratory in Morgantown, West Virginia as a Center of Excellence for Coal research this February - a place and a town very familiar to yours truly and the readers of this blog, when one visited it in 2019. 

Another subject of note over Thursday and Friday of India Energy Week was biofuels, and India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri's pet project of enhanced ethanol blending into fuel dispensed at the country's petrol forecourts. 

The initiative is now firmly in overdrive mode, as noted by yours truly's in a Forbes post from the event. Have a read here if you wish. 

With speaking engagements all done on Thursday, it was time for some more meeting and greeting at the exhibition halls and getting to know what the energy sector was bringing to bear in 2026 and beyond. 

The Oilholic's many engagements included meeting Emerson's Chief Sustainability Officer and longstanding industry colleague Mike Train, as well as Erik Lindhjem, President of Asia Pacific and Anil Bhatia, Vice President & Managing Director India. We had a great discussion on investment opportunities in India (see above right, click to enlarge).

A meeting with Abhilesh Gupta, CEO of Think Gas, who was also a panellist yours truly panel on city gas distribution (CGD) networks and their potential, followed (see left, click to enlarge).

It was great discussing the plans of this prominent Indian CGD company specialising in the distribution of compressed natural gas (CNG), piped natural gas (PNG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for residential, commercial, and industrial use with him.

Also had a fascinating discussion as the event's conclusion approached with Chander Mani, GGM, Impex & Shipping, at Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL), a subsidiary of ONGC (see right, click to enlarge).

MRPL is a crucial part of the ONGC group, acting as a refining arm that processes crude oil from ONGC’s fields in Mumbai High, and other imported crudes. 

In Dec 2024, MRPL and ONGC signed a performance MoU to improve operational efficiency and secure energy at the 300,000 barrels per day refining facility in Southern India.

We also discussed the refining industry's current operational complexities with the state of global geopolitics and crude supplies as they stand. 

Finally, the Oilholic also caught up with the team at Applied Computing, a UK energy AI start-up making waves with its downstream platform Orbital (see below left, click to enlarge).

The duo of Hari Ramani, Vice President of Commercial Markets at Applied Computing (left) and Harry Ashcroft, Communications Advisor (right), discussed the company's expansion plans, including the recent opening of a new office in Bengaluru, India, pointing to the inexorable direction of travel for many energy technology firms both large and small.

Well that's all for now from India Energy Week 2026 folks. It has been a memorable and insightful time out here in Goa. More missives to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, January 2026. Photo I: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma chairs India Energy Week 2026 panel on coal on Thursday, January 29, 2026. Photo II: (L to R) Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma with Emerson's Anil Bhatia, Vice President & Managing Director, India, Mike Train, Chief Sustainability Officer and Erik Lindhjem, President of Asia Pacific. Photo III: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma (left) with Abhilesh Gupta, CEO of Think Gas. Photo IV: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma (right) with Chander Mani, GGM, Impex and Shipping, MRPL. Photo V: (L to R) Hari Ramani, Vice President of Commercial Markets at Applied Computing, Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma and Harry Ashcroft, Communications Advisor. © Photos: Gaurav Sharma, January 2026.

IEW 2026 Days I & II: A $500bn investment opportunity?

India Energy Week 2026 got underway in Goa, India, on Tuesday with yours truly in attendance to hear the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, who declared the event open via video-link and noted that the energy sector was at the heart of his country's aspiration's for the future. 

India's burgeoning economy needs energy, and his government is working overtime to ensure security of supply of all sources traditional and renewable. The move holds over $500 in billion investment opportunities, according to the PM. 

It certainly seems that way with more than 75,000 attendees from over 120 countries in attendance and 700-plus exhibitors here in Goa. Making a pitch for his nation, PM Modi urged them to "Make in India, Innovate in India, Scale with India, and Invest in India." 

Later on in the opening morning's proceedings, India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri emphasised on the diversity of supply with over 40-plus crude oil suppliers. 

He also noted: "India's rapid expansion of LPG coverage, clean cooking access and diversified energy mix reflect the country's commitment to inclusive growth and equitable energy access." 

Additionally, it was widely acknowledged on the first day of India Energy Week that the country remains on track to meeting its 500GW renewable energy capacity target for 2030. The opening day also heard market observations of ADNOC Group CEO Dr Sultan Al Jaber in his keynote address to the event.  

"From air conditioning to AI, exponential growth in energy demand will require all forms of energy. Oil demand will remain over 100 million barrels per day for a good few decades yet. As the world third's largest consumer of oil and power, India is an unquestionable driver of global demand that energy sector players simply cannot ignore," Dr Al Jaber told India Energy Week delegates. 

As the event's exhibition floors opened their doors and the dialogues began in earnest, the Oilholic also began his flurry of speaking engagements. 

This kick-started with a fireside chat on day one with Mohsin Hamed Al Hadhrami, Undersecretary, Ministry of Energy & Minerals, Oman on his country's energy sector potential, minerals industry and how it can be a strategic trading partner for India and indeed the world (See above left). 

With 30-odd insightful conversations successfully negotiated on day one, Wednesday - day two - brought a similar number of panels and dialogues to the fore, with yours truly keeping busy with three sessions of his own. 

The first of these was a fireside chat with Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Canada, who set out his country's stall for a reset and reboot of relations with India drawing a line under the diplomatic spats of 2023. Hodgson outlined an array of commodities Canada could reliably supply to India, not just oil and natural gas, and that a state visit to the country by Prime Minister Mark Carney was imminent. (See above right)

Following the fireside, yours truly hosted two unique panels. The first of these, was titled 'Global South clean energy solidarity: powering South-South cooperation for a shared future.' 

The panellists included Prof. Elmutasim Ibrahim Ahmed Ali, Minister of Energy and Petroleum, Republic of Sudan, Ralph Regenvanu, Minister of Climate Change Adaptation, Meteorology and Geo-Hazards, Energy, Environment and Disaster Management of Vanuatu, and Indra Mani Pandey, Secretary General, BIMSTEC (see left).

We discussed strategic energy solidarity, and how policymakers can empower the Global South’s geopolitical voice in the evolving multi-polar world order, reflective of the rising economic weight behind its emerging and diverse markets.

The second of the Oilholic's panels touched on establishing global models for city gas distribution (CGD) networks, with panellists Suresh Manglani, Executive Director and CEO, Adani Total Gas Limited, Goutom Chakraborty, CEO, GAIL Gas Limited, Kamal Kishore Chatiwal, MD, Indraprastha Gas Limited, Abhilesh Gupta, MD and CEO, THINK Gas, and Sandeep Jain, Former Executive Director, Gas, Indian Oil Corporation Limited (See right), 

As CGD markets are projected to more than double in size to $30 billion in the coming decade, we discussed which strategic models, collaborations and technologies will be key to delivering the next phase of international development. Well that's all for now folks. As the second half of India Energy Week 2026 approaches, there's more to follow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, January 2026. Photo I: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma at India Energy Week 2026 in Goa, India. Photo II: India's Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri speaks at India Energy Week 2026. Photo III: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma hosts India Energy Week 2026 session with Mohsin Hamed Al Hadhrami, Undersecretary, Ministry of Energy & Minerals, Oman. Photo IV: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma hosts India Energy Week 2026 session with Tim Hodgson, Minister of Energy And Natural Resources, Canada. Photos V & VI: India Energy Week panels hosted by Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma. © Photos I & II: Gaurav Sharma, January 2026. © Photo III: Sammy Ahmed, KPMG. © Photos IV, V & VI: India Energy Week / dmgevents, January 2026.