Media missives from Gastech 2025

With Gastech 2025 drawing to a close, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week out in Milan, Italy by hosting four pivotal panel sessions on subjects ranging from the natural gas-AI nexus to solutions for the decarbonization of heavy industries and climatetech finance.

Yours truly also hit the airwaves and spoke to media outlets about the energy market and developments at the conference. The first broadcasting call was with the TRT World, and the final one with Energy Connects. This blogger's week also included plenty of other missives via the keyboard for Forbes and of course, via this blog.

All blog entries for Gastech 2025 may be found here. And here are selected Forbes copies in chronological order based on soundbites and insight from the event. 

• Trump’s Top Envoys Tell Europe U.S. Will Double Gas Exports In 5 Years, September 11, 2025
• Ditch Russia’s Oil For More U.S. Sanctions On Moscow, Trump Tells NATO, September 14, 2025
• OPEC’s Bid To Tame U.S. Shale Failed In 2014. Will 2025 Be Different?, September 16, 2025

More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma speaks on TRT World on September 9, 2025 © TRT World, September 2025.

Gastech Days III & IV: The natural gas-AI nexus & more

As Gastech 2025 entered Days III and IV, and the finish line approached, conversations and dialogues at the event slightly turned from how natural gas would power an AI driven future to how AI itself would serve as an efficiency and decarbonisation enabler for the energy sector, and by extension to hard-to-abate heavy industry segments. 

To this effect, for the past three years, the event's AI-Energy, Climatetech and Hydrogen content streams have been steadily growing alongside signature plenaries. 

The Oilholic is happy to report that this trend continues. Additionally, this year also saw an even higher number of AI exhibitors. And leading global experts also showcased the impacts of new energy solutions such as methane abatement technologies and AI-driven optimisation, while addressing their impacts on rising energy demand and increased electricity consumption.

Yours truly got into the thick of the action via three panels on equally profound subjects on Day III. The first panel was on the topic of decarbonising heavy industrial sectors with e-fuels. 

Fellow panellists included Marco Àlvera, CEO & Co-Founder of TES, Alessandro Bernini, CEO of Maire, Dr Andrew Wood, CEO & Co-Founder of CATAGEN and Steve Esau, Chief Operating Officer of SEA-LNG. We discussed how with the right policies, collaborations and workforce support, sustainable fuels can contribute significantly to building a resilient, low carbon future. While there will be challenges along the way, there will also be opportunities. 

The second panel's topic was all about the unlocking the potential of low consumption AI technologies to accelerate energy transition goals. 

Panellists who joined yours truly for this panel included Uwa Airhiavbere, CCO - Worldwide Energy & Resources at Microsoft, Henri Domenach, Global Head - Energy Management of ENGIE, Parisa Bardouni, SVP & CTO of Aker Solutions, and Manoj Narender Madnani, MD - International at MARA.

Over an engaging and lively post-lunch exchange, we discussed how to activate low energy consumption, high impact AI technologies to deliver on the decarbonisation promise of generative AI.

And third and final panel that brought Day III's proceedings to a close for both the wider event, and this blogger, was on fostering full value chain collaboration to strengthen the market for scalable climate technologies. 

The panellists for this one included Guido D'Aloisio, CCO of Saipem, Yair Reem, Co-Founder & Partner at Extantia Capital, Charlie Sanchez, President - Infrastructure Advisory at Black & Veatch, and Dr. Ahmed El Sherbiny, VP - Energy Transition Fund at Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. 

This one dear readers was all about plotting a roadmap for fostering the very sort of collaboration that translates ambition into tangible market impact.

Moving on from the penultimate day to the final morning - on Day IV - it was revealed that this year's Gastech saw nearly 50,000 visitors and attendees from over 150 countries, as this international event grows bigger by the year.

Additionally, next year's host city would be Bangkok, Thailand, as the event rotates back from Europe to Asia, the continent with a burgeoning natural gas demand. Well that's a wrap from Gastech 2025. It's been a memorable, insightful and engaging week out here in Milan. To be continued in Bangkok in 2026. Arrivederci for now. More musings to follow. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

Gastech Days I & II: Powering a sustainable energy future

The first two days of Gastech 2025 - which officially runs from September 9 to 12 in Milan, Italy - have flown by with senior energy officials, CEOs and global industry experts offering their viewpoints on "powering a sustainable energy future."

The tag line of the event was amplified on Tuesday and Wednesday by two top US officials, dispatched by President Donald Trump, to spread the word that energy, especially LNG, exports from the States will be a stable and reliable for a power hungry world. 

That's as the proliferation of AI and hyperscale datacentres present the prospect of the world's power demand adding the entire consumption of Japan - the world's fourth-largest economy - by the end of the year to the world's current demand level. That'd be a total consumption load of 1,000 TWh, or more than double of what the planet consumed three years ago. 

Renewables simply cant meet that demand, and that's where LNG exports from the US come into view, according to Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Interior and Chris Wright, Energy Secretary. 

Both officials spent plenty of time at Gastech spread over the first two days, making a case for natural gas, and indicating that the US would double its natural gas production. 

Both officials also suggested that the US natural gas industry in general, and LNG in particular, were a force for good and a key enabler of the AI revolution. Here is the Oilholic's latest Forbes missive summing up the US pitch. 

Away from the US position, and prior to Washington's take dominating the goings-on at Gastech 2025, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, Italy's Minister of Environment & Energy Security launched the event on the opening morning on behalf of the host country. 

“Despite the progress of the energy transition, gas will continue to be part of the EU's energy mix for decades to come. This is why the Italian government – while working to ensure that clean, safe and reliable technology such as new nuclear power meets future growing energy demand – is at the same time ensuring that gas supplies are boosted and regasification capacity is increased,” Fratin noted.

Other officials from the European Union, Nigeria, Hungary, and Türkiye, also discussed the crucial role of energy supply diversification, global cooperation, and resilient infrastructure in shaping an inclusive and balanced transformation. 

In particular, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó ruffled a few feathers by noting that his country does have alternatives to Russian oil and gas imports, but chooses to rely on Moscow for strategic, cost efficiency and infrastructural reasons, and not ideological ones. 

Senior industry CEO's also came calling. Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italy's Eni, told Gastech: "We want to reduce emissions, but this is not achievable overnight. 

"You cannot do it by losing money or through subsidies and incentives. You have to make it affordable, because that is the economy - there is no other way."

Shell CEO Wael Sawan added: "Consistency of the regulatory environment is a priority, making sure that regulation incentivises one area but does not disincentivise others. 

"Everyone is rightly saying that we need to go to lower carbon products, yet we see maximum consumption of everything. We therefore need to broaden the perspective to say not what is good or bad, but to create the right incentives to allow the market to function."

And TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne warned the Americans were building too much LNG infrastructure. "We are facing many US projects. We will face oversupply for some years if all these projects come onstream."

Well into Day II the focus was firmly on the natural gas-AI nexus, as the Oilholic began his Gastech 2025 speaking engagements with a panel on achieving operational excellence through the application of AI. 

The panellists included Dr. Ahmed Mohamed Alebri, CEO of ADNOC Sour Gas, Olakunle Osobu, Deputy MD of NLNG, Michael Deighton, SVP - Operations at Kent, Fabricio Sousa, Global President - Worley Consulting & Technology Solutions at Worley and Andy Webster, Global Digital Senior Director at KBR. 

The engaging panel discussion offered actionable insights into leveraging AI for enhancing  system reliability, and maintain a competitive edge in a rapidly evolving energy landscape. That's as natural gas, hydrogen, and power networks face mounting pressure to enhance efficiency and resilience.

In step with the conference, Gastech's exhibition also opened its doors with a focus on supporting industry growth and collaboration, bringing in more than 1,000 global exhibitors and 20 country pavilions showcase a transformative range of products and services.

From hydrogen-ready equipment and next-generation LNG terminals to AI and machine learning platforms, the exhibition underscored Gastech’s role as the leading meeting place for executives, investors, and innovators to scale new solutions for efficiency and decarbonisation across the value chain.

Yours truly also took time out to discuss the Norwegian election results as they arrived on Day I of Gastech with Enda Brady on TRT World's Roundtable programme. 

Among various other macroeconomic facets, we talked about how Norway's hydrocarbon production is currently at its highest since 2011, by drilling and producing from the North Sea - the very same continental shelf it shares with the UK. 

Ironically while the UK is discouraging fresh North Sea production, Norway's centre-left government that's just been re-elected has no such hang ups. That includes exporting $30 billion-plus of natural gas to none other than their British counterparts, currently governed by a party also of a supposed centre-left political persuasion!

That's all for now folks. More musings to follow from Milan over the coming days. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Gastech 2025 which officially runs from September 9 to 12 in Milan, Italy. Photo II: Doug Burgum, US Secretary of the Interior, speaks at Gastech on September 9, 2025. Photo III: Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell, speaks at Gastech on September 9, 2025. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2025. Photo IV: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma moderates panel on achieving operational excellence through the application of AI on September 10, 2025. © KBR, September 2025. Photo V: Gastech 2025 exhibition floor on September 10, 2025. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2025. Photo VI: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma speaks on TRT World's Roundtable programme. © TRT World, September 2025.

Gastech 2025 sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic is delighted to be back speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025 being held in Milan, Italy this year. One of the world's largest natural gas conference and exhibition of its kind is being held here from September 9 to 12. 

Yours truly will be holding four panel sessions at the event with distinguished industry leaders from energy sector and its entire value chain. 

Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:

Wednesday, September 10, 2025 @ 11:00 CET

Operational excellence through the application of artificial intelligence technologies

With:

• Dr. Ahmed Mohamed Alebri, CEO, ADNOC Sour Gas
• Olakunle Osobu, Deputy MD, NLNG
• Michael Deighton, SVP - Operations, Kent
• Fabricio Sousa, Global President - Worley Consulting & Technology Solutions, Worley
• Andy Webster, Global Digital Senior Director, KBR

(Click to enlarge)

Thursday, September 11, 2025 @ 09:45 CET

Decarbonising heavy industrial sectors with e-fuels

With:

• Marco Àlvera, CEO & Co-Founder, TES
• Alessandro Bernini, CEO, Maire
• Dr. Andrew Wood, CEO & Co-Founder, CATAGEN
• Steve Esau, Chief Operating Officer, SEA-LNG

(Click to enlarge)

Thursday, September 11, 2025 @ 14:00 CET

From investment to impact: Unlocking the potential of low consumption AI technologies to accelerate energy transition goals 

With:

• Uwa Airhiavbere, CCO - Worldwide Energy & Resources, Microsoft
• Henri Domenach, Global Head - Energy Management, ENGIE
• Parisa Bardouni, SVP & CTO, Aker Solutions
• Manoj Narender Madnani, MD - International, MARA

(Click to enlarge)

Thursday, September 11, 2025 @16:15 CET

Fostering full value chain collaboration to strengthen the market for scalable climate technologies

With:

• Guido D'Aloisio, CCO, Saipem 
• Yair Reem, Co-Founder & Partner, Extantia Capital 
• Charlie Sanchez, President - Infrastructure Advisory, Black & Veatch 
• Dr. Ahmed El Sherbiny, VP - Energy Transition Fund, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners

(Click to enlarge)

More musings to follow soon from Milan. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

A pre-departure Negroni & more ahead of Gastech 2025

The Oilholic is off to attend and speak at the natural gas industry's biggest jamboree - Gastech 2025 - for yet another year. This year's installment - the 53rd year in a row - is in Milan, Italy. Here's more on this blogger's panels.

So, what better way to contemplate the week that's about to follow other than over a delicious Negroni at the British Airways departure lounge dear readers. 

Now depending on the energy industry or ESG [or lack of] vernacular, call natural gas an 'interim' or 'bridging' or 'destination' or whatever you wish fuel, it's err.... here to stay. Let's face it, those hyperscale datacentres that you continue to hear about on the airwaves, the telly, and all else in between are not going to be powered by renewables in totality anytime soon. 

Because you and yours truly here need Grok, Gemini, Chat GPT and the wider global industrial and manufacturing complex need Industrial AI, and IIoT and more. So, they aren't going away, AI isn't going away, automation isn't going away, and well... natural gas fired power plants aren't going away either. 

That's why the U.S. of A, Australia and Qatar, and pretty much all of the GECF membership are pumping billions of gas dollars (yup,its not just petrodollars) into the business. And the great and good of the industry will be in Milan, including none other than US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. 

To quote the US Department of Energy, he will be there to "engage with energy ministers, nuclear and natural gas providers, members of the European Parliament and Commission, and other high-ranking officials to strengthen long-lasting partnerships and encourage countries to join the US as President [Donald] Trump builds a energy secure and prosperous future.

"This trip follows the announcement of President Trump’s Historic Trade Deal, which included an agreement from the EU to purchase $750 billion in US energy and invest $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028."

And, there you have it! 

But before one takes your leave, here's a bit more pessimism on that deal via yours truly's column in Forbes, and a word on natural gas and the Middle East via Energy connects. 

That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon from Milan. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. 

Seesawing crude price, fresh lows & more

Oil prices have been seesawing all of this week in the wake of another round of Trump Tariffs, an OPEC+ production hike, market uncertainty, and so it goes. You name it, the market bears have it with crude prices currently lurking around 8-week lows. 

Brent closed at its lowest since June 10 on Wednesday, while the WTI closed at its lowest since June 5. 

However, even if you were to drown out the latest din, it is almost inescapable that both benchmarks have struggled to meaningfully maintain a price floor of $70 a barrel. 

Specifically on the global proxy benchmark Brent, as The Oilholic told Reuters, for all of what has been thrown the oil market's way geopolitically, it has struggled to stay above $70 a barrel for any convincing length of time. 

At the time of writing, Brent is down by over 10% on the year, 9% on a six-month basis, and, even more tellingly 11% year-to-date. That's because despite the various permutations and shifts the market has seen, it essentially remains well supplied at a time of uncertain demand.

Furthermore, the various macro factors - most notably China’s manufacturing contraction, weak US labour market data, and the chaos of Trump Tariffs - continue to temper expectations of any sort of lasting bullishness for crude.

Away from crude prices, here are yours truly's Forbes missives on a 10th successive quarterly profit decline at Saudi Aramco, Shell's share buybacks despite its own profits dip, and BP's latest bid to cheer up its underwhelmed shareholders. 

Additionally, here's The Oilholic's latest column for Energy Connects on the sector's incremental embrace of industrial AI and the commercial opportunities that presents the technology industry. 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Exploring Elysian Aircraft's electric E9X plane concept

(Left to right: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, Reynard De Vries, Chief Engineer, Elysian Aircraft and Rob Wolleswinkel, Co-CEO and Chief Technology Officer, Elysian Aircraft) 

Earlier this month, The Oilholic headed out to Hoofddorp, The Netherlands, where in the shadow of one of the world's busiest transport hub - Schiphol Airport - startup Elysian Aircraft is attempting something rather unique. 

The company is aiming to build a narrow-body electric plane - something very few, if any, of its peers are having a crack at. In fact, up until the visit, this blogger had only encountered four to 20-seater zero air mobility concepts around the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) and electric conventional takeoff and landing (eCTOL) spheres. 

But Elysian's concept plane called the E9X will be capable of carrying 90 passengers over 500 miles on a single charge. The projected capacity is around half that of the airline industry's short-haul work-horses Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320. It would have a decent chance of success in an industry that appears desperate to lower its carbon footprint. 

To discuss the E9X's potential, pitfalls, development trajectory and taking it to market, The Oilholic sat down for both an off-record as well as on-record analyst's briefing with Elysian's co-founders Daniel Rosen Jacobson (Co-CEO), Reynard De Vries (Chief Engineer) and Rob Wolleswinkel (Co-CEO and chief technology officer) as well as four other members of the now 30-strong team. 

Based on the on-record exchanges with the team, here is the Oilholic's recent feature on Elysian for Forbes. As for the off-record discussions, the plane's proof of concept does stand up to independent scrutiny is all this blogger can say at present, something the startup itself has been working tirelessly on. 

A paper co-authored by De Vries and Wolleswinkel, and two others, published by the Delft University of Technology, is well worth a read too in this context, if you wish to. 

Furthermore, Wolleswinkel told this blogger that his colleagues are under no illusion about the magnitude of the task ahead, but have the courage of their convictions to make it happen in an emerging electric aircraft segment that is littered with more failures than signs of tangible successes.

The company's Series A funding is likely to close by the end of the current quarter, according to Jacobson, who added that it was all about taking "phased but assured steps forward" with patient capital investments. 

It remains a tough landscape of carbon-neutral air travel solutions. Therefore, it remains to be seen how it will go for this electric aviation startup. As things stand, the E9X prototype is expected in 2030, and a service entry by 2033. The Oilholic wishes Team Elysian Aircraft well and will now keep a very keen eye out for their progress. 

With those final thoughts, its time to take your leave. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma with Elysian Aircraft's co-founders. Photo II: Elysian Aircraft's E9X conceptual image. © Elysian Aircraft, July 2025. 

On price caps and sub-$70 crude

Earlier this month, Brent crude futures touched $70 per barrel levels despite a suggested uptick in the amount of oil OPEC+ was bringing on to the market. 

The widely held belief here was that internal cheating or quota busting within OPEC+ ranks meant the announced increase wasn't what it was being made out to be. 

In step with that, Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea upped the geopolitical stakes a bit. 

Then a week ago, the EU and UK moved to lower the price cap on Russian crude from $60 per barrel to $47 per barrel, with effect from September 3. As inventory data at the time also pointed to a decline, traders took their cue and kept prices elevated. 

But keeping prices at $70 Brent levels looked unrealistic then, and has proven to be so in the sessions that have followed since. Thing is, as past Western sanctions and price caps on Russian crude have demonstrated, it always finds a way to reach where those willing to buy it need it, albeit at a discount that's priced comfortably above price cap. 

For instance, the previous price cap and sanctions regime did not prevent India from taking plenty of Russian crude, cracking it and exporting petroleum products and distillates around the world. This point hasn't been lost on the EU, which took a direct swipe at India's Nayara Energy (formerly Essar Oil) - the operator of the country's second-largest single-site refining complex in the coastal town of Vadinar, in which Russia's Rosneft has a stake. 

However, European curbs on Nayara's exports derived from Western sanctions-ridden Russian crude are unlikely to make any tangible difference to the wider scheme of things. India's exposure to the European market is not what it used to be, and its domestic market is more than capable of picking up middle distillate volumes left unexported. 

The wider crude market has also come to the belief that should China and India want Russian crude in higher volumes, they will find a way. Hence, the current decline in prices. Overall, there is ample crude in the market and current price levels are unlikely to be sustained. We are looking at a likely surplus from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, as yours truly noted via Forbes post earlier this month, if not earlier. As such lower prices may beckon. 

Finally, here are another couple of the Oilholic's Forbes missives - the first a take on OPEC's latest forecast dismissing peak oil demand and projecting a global demand growth of 123 million bpd by 2050 contrary to the opinion of many in the market, and the second, a take on how China and India are keeping coal in play and a future energy transition at bay! 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

On OPEC's higher output, no peak demand & no access

OPEC's two-day biennial 9th International Seminar came to a conclusion on Thursday after its key voices roundly declared the world simply needed more oil, there was no prospect of peak demand any time soon and denied half the world's scribes an opportunity to forensically question that assertion. 

More on the latter point later, but as The Oilholic noted in an overnight Forbes missive, the Saudi energy minister and de facto OPEC leader Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned against hurting global economic growth and people's "affordability" in the name of energy transition, multiple attendees confirmed to the Oilholic. 

The minister also said Wednesday that as renewable energy sources continue to grow, hydrocarbons will remain “indispensable” in supporting the economic progress of developing countries, and ensuring mission critical hard-to-abate sectors like heavy industry, aviation and haulage keep going.

And on Thursday - the second and final day of the OPEC Seminar - OPEC published its World Oil Outlook report claiming that crude demand will average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) this year. The producers' group expects demand to grow to average 106.3 million bpd in 2026 and then rise to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, and as high as 123 million bpd by 2050. To be read as - there's not going to be a peak demand scenario any time soon.

Now speaking of being reliant on third parties and quotes of seminar attendees to bring you these snippets dear readers, you may be wondering what's afoot. Well, for the first time since September 2004, OPEC turned down the Oilholic's request to attend, write op-eds for Forbes and blogs from the seminar.

Yours truly wasn't alone. It also withheld access to a number of global newswires, WSJ and FT, among many others. And for good measure, the event management company was instructed to tell all "non-partner media" journalists that the venue was full to capacity in case they turned up at the registration desk unannounced. 

There's not much one can do about this, but it didn't stop The Oilholic from flagging the goings-on at the event, and meeting and greeting familiar friends and faces from our 'crude' world. 

Still not sure what triggered but if it has something to do with objective reporting and searching questions - that ain't getting compromised folks, not now, not ever!

Non-access also meant that market commentary had to be done offsite, including with Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV. Yours truly discussed Brent crude touching $70 per barrel intraday on Wednesday with Senior Business News Anchor Nour Amache, and why near-term market sentiment was being impacted by lower inventories and anticipated higher summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere.

Furthermore, OPEC may have raised its output, but the hikes have already largely been factored in by traders. So, the move is currently not serving as a drag on prices. However, it would be interesting to note what happens when summer demand tails off, and the fourth quarter approaches with more OPEC+ barrels and hedged US / non-OPEC crude on the market. 

That will likely create a surplus, especially for light sweet crude, thereby potentially driving prices lower. Who knows, it may even convince US President Donald Trump to perhaps top up his country's strategic reserves. It seems we're heading for an interesting second half of the year. 

Well that's all from Vienna folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo I: Gaurav Sharma, energy analyst outside OPEC International Seminar venue at Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Austria on July 9, 2025 © Gaurav Sharma, July 2025. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma offers oil market commentary on Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025. © Asharq Business with Bloomberg TV, July 9, 2025.

Oil market fundamentals return with aplomb

The oil futures slide began even before Iran's muted response to the US bombing of its nuclear sites had ended on Monday. And the benchmarks tanked further still once a ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect in the following session. 

That's because oil market fundamentals took hold the moment de-risking started, evaporating the so-called risk premium double quick. 

Prior to this week's declines, oil futures had risen 20% month-over-month. Those price gains have now almost entirely been lost. And so much so for the outlandish claims that Iran may shut the Strait of Hormuz, which was never going to happen as yours truly noted in a column for Forbes. 

Since the start of hostilities on June 13, the Oilholic has always maintained that if there was a swift end to the conflict - as has been the case - price will fall rapidly again. That's because the market remains well supplied with plenty of non-Middle Eastern, non-OPEC crude from Brazil, Canada, Guyana, Norway, and indeed - the US - still the world's number 1 producer of oil. 

If you believe global oil demand growth for 2025 to be in the region that's just a smidge north or south of 1 million barrels per day, that can be serviced by growth in non-OPEC production alone. And OPEC+ led by the Saudis and Russians is also pumping more in a fight for market share. 

It all points to a market surplus come the end of 2025, especially for light sweet crude. That itself points to oil prices heading lower, perhaps even below $60! Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Crudely heading down uncharted 'dire straits'?

On Saturday night the Israel-Iran conflict, and its domino effect on the world's energy markets, took another twist after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. 

The Americans dropped 14 “bunker buster” bombs against three nuclear facilities in Iran - Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. The move came just over a week on from Israel's own campaign of attacks on Iran's nuclear and military targets began. Inevitably, Iran responded with retaliatory missile strikes of its own on Israel. 

But the latest escalation by the US takes the oil market into uncharted waters (or straits shall we say). Early on in Israel's campaign, many assumed Iran's oil and gas infrastructure would not be attacked. However, that myth was shattered after Israel attacked Shahran Oil Terminal in Tehran, and two natural gas fields that Iran shares with Qatar. 

It hinted at the possibility that the Israelis were in no mood to compromise. Thereafter, oil futures capped the $75 mark, and lurked some 20% above last month's levels using Brent as a benchmark. 

Unsurprisingly, old market chatter that Iran would somehow close or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz has resurfaced, as yours truly discussed in an interview with Germany's ARD Radio 1 on Tuesday while out in the Middle East. 

The Oilholic also discussed the direction of the market with Turkiye's Anadolu News Agency noting that if the crisis persists and / or worsens, crude price points will have to recalibrate to a new normal around $80 per barrel Brent prices. However, if tensions or the conflict are quickly diffused, we could see a drop to $70 or below, as and when more normalized market fundamentals kick in once again.

The Oilholic also subsequently said in a BBC interview on Friday that the very fact we happen to be discussing oil breaching a $80 ceiling and not a $100 one is because the market remains well supplied ahead of the US summer driving season. 

It's also a perception helped in no small part by the Saudis via OPEC+ and a decision by the producers' group to raise production for three successive months. 

It's why the market has priced in a heightened level of near-term hostilities between Israel and Iran in as balanced a way as possible, without succumbing to unfounded conjecture or worse still an actual push toward $100 driven by paper bulls - especially now that chatter about Tehran blockading the Strait of Hormuz is all the rage again. 

So, here's yours truly's take via Forbes on why its something the Iranians have threatened to do since the 1980s, but have in actual fact never done or attempted even once, and remains a highly unlikely prospect despite any chatter of any sort. 

However, Iran-backed Houthi Rebels could make life difficult for energy shipping by resuming their attacks in the other strait - i.e. the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. 

Of course, the Israel-Iran story still has some way to go. But the presence of a lot of non-OPEC oil is keeping somewhat of a lid on things. It's why in the small hours of the morning in Europe, and early morning trading in Asia on Monday, gains in the wake of the attack still remain muted at sub-$80 Brent crude prices. (02:00am BST)

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. Photo II: Energy Analyst Gaurav Sharma on BBC News channel. © BBC, June 2025. 

Media missives from Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit

With the inaugural Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit drawing to a close on June 18, the Oilholic enjoyed an engaging week out in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

 

An action-packed two days included insightful fireside chats, panel discussions, and wider engagements on international collaboration in the infrastructure space. 

All of The Oilholic's blog entries for Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit may be found here. 

Yours truly also provided insights for Forbes from the event as detailed below:

• Embed Sustainability And Resilience Into Infrastructure, Experts Say, June 18, 2025
• Where Do Sustainability And Affordability Sit In The Pursuit Of Smart Cities?, June 20, 2025

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit plenary stage © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.

Striving for smart, sustainable cities & urban excellence

On Wednesday, the second and final day of the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, over 4,000 attendees visited the exhibition and conference. 

They included royalty as the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan joined the crowds. He met exhibitors, officials and visitors alike during his visit. 

The Crown Prince also stressed on the vital importance of leveraging advanced technologies in urban planning to ensure the long-term sustainability of infrastructure that meets the aspirations of current and future generations and enhances societal wellbeing, by investing in integrated, future-ready infrastructure, including facilities powered by artificial intelligence and other smart solutions. 

Of course, the pursuit of urban excellence is a moving target with diverse global contexts. Abu Dhabi’s ambition to redefine urban living through world-class infrastructure and quality of life enhancements finds resonance in the transformative strategies of pioneering global cities.

That was the subject matter of the second panel at the summit moderated by The Oilholic at ADIS. The panelists included Daniel Liu, Executive Director of MORROW Intelligence, Emre Arolat, Founding Partner and Principal at Emre Arolat Architecture, Greg Bargull, Executive Director of Development at Modon and Asma Aljassmi, Executive Director of Projects Control and Operations at Aldar Projects. 

We discussed how successful urban centers worldwide are redefining city planning through context-specific innovations that balance economic growth with human-centric design. 

From Singapore’s holistic balance of economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social inclusivity to Chongqing’s technology and sustainability integration, Copenhagen’s Nordhavn district’s 5-Minute City model, and Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City balancing sustainability, heritage and innovation - the world’s most innovative cities promote a strong sense of place and identity for their residents and community said the panelists.

They also offered pragmatic insights on the challenges and opportunities along the route toward urban excellence, and learning as much from the mistakes of others as their successes, whilst keeping sustainability and energy efficiency almost always in sharp focus. 

And on that note, it's a wrap from the inaugural ADIS folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (right) visits the exhibition at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit © Abu Dhabi Media Office, June 2025. Photo II: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma (left) moderates a panel at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit. © ADIS, June 2025.

Discussing collaboration on infrastructural resilience

Formal proceedings got underway at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit on Tuesday. The inaugural edition of the event combined a conference programme and exhibition featuring keynotes, panels and roundtables spread over two days.

Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid, Director General of Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre (ADPIC) - the mandated agency that manages government capital projects in the Emirate, alongside overseeing infrastructure project implementation and delivery - kicked things off with a keynote emphasising the need for strategic investment in infrastructure, and flagging the drive Abu Dhabi itself has embarked upon with the Emirate’s AED 200 billion (£41 billion, $54 billion) infrastructure pipeline, and 600-plus projects. 

What that level of investment and ambition has done is put Abu Dhabi prominently on the map for global infrastructure collaboration. It also reflects a strategic alignment of regional priorities and international best practices. 

As the Emirate accelerates the adoption of its Economic Vision 2030, cross-sector partnerships will be critical for fostering inclusive growth and address complex urban challenges including sustainable housing and smart mobility. 

Much of this came into sharp focus as the day progressed with plenty of chatter on how the world's major urban centres were approaching the challenge of infrastructural resilience, including via deploying public private partnerships (PPPs) to mixed degrees of success. 

Here's the Oilholic's report for Forbes from the event on the subject. 

For its part, Abu Dhabi’s infrastructure strategy centers on securing supply chains, enhancing climate resilience, establishing conformity standards and quality control, and fortifying digital connectivity, which it appears to be doing perhaps way better than most. 

Yours truly also partook in the first day's proceedings and moderated a session on global collaboration to bring about transformative infrastructural development. 

The panelists included Carlos Wakim, CEO of Bloom Holding, Mounir Haidar, Managing Partner of LEAD Development, Fuat Kasimcan, Secretary General of Turkish Contractors Association, and Abdulaziz Alobaidli, Chief Operating Officer of Masdar. Over the course of an insightful discussion, we discussed how Abu Dhabi was offering several case studies for the world's major cities to take their cue from, and the role, advantages and pitfalls of PPPs in the region, and beyond. 

We also discussed what role technology, especially AI, can play in solutions for smart cities, alongside the criticality of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in multiple geographies to foster collaboration, as well as the need for grid resilience to ensure the power demands of burgeoning urban centres are serviced without outages. All-in-all, a great discussion. 

Once the first day's proceedings had concluded, invited delegates headed over the event's Gala Dinner in the evening, attended by distinguished guests from around the world who were welcomed to the summit, the dinner and indeed to Abu Dhabi once again by ADPIC Director General Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid.

The ADPIC DG also commended the strength of the dialogues at the event and the global mix of the attendees on the first day before the evening's entertainment and festivities commenced. 

Well that's all for the moment folks ahead of a content packed second day at ADIS! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit signage © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025. Photo II & III: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma moderates a panel at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit. © ADIS, June 2025. Photo IV: Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid, Director General of Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre address ADIS gala dinner attendees © Gaurav Sharma, June 2025.