CERAWeek's Innovation Agora goes mega

The Oilholic took some time out to visit CERAWeek's Innovation Agora programme today - the event's - marketplace of ideas on energy innovation and emerging technologies. 

Yours truly remembers that nearly a decade ago, both the displays and talks would fit within half a hotel foyer, often with ABB's Yumi robot (or 'co-bot' as the company called it at the time) at the centre of it all. 

Things look and feel very different for the programme these days, and particularly so at CERAWeek 2026. Agora proceedings now practically occupy a whole floor at the George R. Brown convention centre adjacent to the event's venue - Hilton Americas in Downtown Houston. 

According to the organisers S&P Global, this year's Agora will have 420 sessions, nearly 900 speakers, over a fourth of whom are from start-ups, and 66 partners. The dialogues are "dedicated to advancing solutions to the greatest challenges facing our energy and environmental future" and exploring new pathways "for lower emissions, affordability and reliability."

The nine key themes for this year happen to be AI and Digital, Electrification Technologies, The Innovation Ecosystem, Managing Emissions, Low-Carbon Fuels and Mobility, Climate and Sustainability, Chemicals and Materials, Investment and Financing and Workforce Strategy. 

Agora has pulled in technologists, VCs, investors and corporate innovators to hobnob with startups in ever greater numbers, very much like any energy technology conference yours truly has attended. 

The Oilholic went from listening to Microsoft executives discussing energy AI to JOGMEC experts talking about pathways for blue hydrogen in the US, and much else in between, earlier this afternoon. 

This blogger can only see the event grow bigger as the years roll on. More musings from Houston soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: CERAWeek 2026's Innovation Agora programme © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026.  

Geopolitics dominates opening day at CERAWeek 2026

The Oilholic is back in Houston for another CERAWeek - one of the world's leading energy events organised by S&P Global. This year's event is taking place at a time of the most profound crisis in the energy market as the US, Israel and Iran trade missiles, drones, barbs, and more. 

Unsurprisingly, the conflict that began on February 28 dominated the discourse on day one of the global event. Many industry insiders the Oilholic spoke to lent further credence to the belief that the war will likely not last longer than six weeks. That date would be April 9 and we aren't that far from it. So, assuming peace is restored on the date or thereabouts, where next for the oil price?

Conversations with traders confirm, the Oilholic's own modelling in that eventuality - a baking in of a minimum 10% premium for the remainder of 2026. That's because even if peace arrives to the region tomorrow, it will take months to restore production. 

Which, for a market that was staring at a pre-war surplus, will now see supply constriction last for much of the year. The premium of that dynamic would be reflected in Brent prices till the end of the year. 

Speaking at the event, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted Asia would be worse off, but said the Trump administration would increase the volume of its crude supplies heading to the region. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth reflected what many have been saying here in Houston that the Iran War has not been fully priced into the oil market. 

Meanwhile, addressing the event via video link, Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Group CEO of ADNOC, said weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz was "economic terrorism" against every nation and this sentiment is being reflected across the global economy. Here's yours truly's full report on the morning's proceedings from day one of CERAWeek for Forbes. 

Elsewhere, there was another interesting development that made attendees sit up an take notice. The US Department of the Interior and TotalEnergies announced an agreement on Monday for the company to redirect capital from "expensive, unreliable offshore wind leases toward affordable, reliable natural gas projects that will provide secure energy for hardworking Americans."

As part of the agreement, TotalEnergies has committed to investing approximately $1 billion - the value of its renounced offshore wind leases - in oil and natural gas and LNG production in the United States. Following the French major's "new" investment, the US will subsequently reimburse the company dollar-for-dollar, up to the amount they paid in lease purchases for offshore wind. Additionally, TotalEnergies has pledged not to develop any new US offshore wind projects.

“This agreement is yet another win for President Donald Trump’s commitment to affordable and reliable energy for all Americans,” said US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. 

“Offshore wind is one of the most expensive, unreliable, environmentally disruptive, and subsidy-dependent schemes ever forced on American ratepayers and taxpayers. We welcome TotalEnergies’ commitment to developing projects that produce dependable, affordable power to lower Americans' monthly bills while providing secure US baseload power today—and in the future.”  

For his part, Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies, said: "We are pleased to sign this settlement agreements with the DOI and to support the Administration’s Energy Policy. Considering that the development of offshore wind projects is not in the country’s interest, we have decided to renounce offshore wind development in the US, in exchange for the reimbursement of the lease fees. 

"Furthermore, these agreements, under which we will reinvest the refunded lease fees to finance the construction of the 29 Mt Rio Grande LNG plant and the development of our oil and gas activities, allows us to support the development of US gas production and export. These investments will contribute to supplying Europe with much-needed LNG from the U.S. and provide gas for US data center development. We believe this is a more efficient use of capital in the US."

It's started off with a bang folks, but that's all for now. More musings from Houston to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: CERAWeek 2026 signage. Photo II: US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum (left) and Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of TotalEnergies at CERAWeek 2026 © Gaurav Sharma, March 2026. 

Range-bound crude prices & European majors' antics

After a fairly volatile April, a sense of relative calm has returned to the global oil markets in May. Since the start of the month, Brent futures have fluctuated between $82-84 per barrel with the global proxy benchmark's $85 support having been firmly breached last month. 

What was April's technical support level is proving to be this month's resistance level with oil struggling to cap $85 in a market still searching for a firm direction of travel.

It's doubtful if OPEC+ would be the one to provide direction. The Oilholic's reading of market sentiment is that a rollover of production cuts by the producers' group has been largely priced in by the market. 

If China's data remains positive overall, and the second reading of the US Q1 GDP is similarly so, perhaps an uptick in prices may be expected in the second half of the year. However, for now Brent remains in technical backwardation, i.e. the current contract is trading higher compared to one six months or more out. For example, Jan 2025 Brent is just north of $81 at the time of writing this blog. 

The oil price isn't too high and it isn't too low at the moment. So if you were OPEC+ why would you make any headline moves on production quotas? Much rather focus on soothing internal tensions for the common cause. Well their common cause, obviously not the consumers'! 

Away from crude prices, the European oil and gas majors sang from the same hymn sheet in recent weeks at the release of their quarterly results - offer shareholders higher dividends and announce multi-billion share buybacks. BP, Shell and TotalEnergies were all at it, but the latter two went one step further by professing their love for a primary US-listing in search of a higher valuation. 

Here are this blogger's musings on their antics and reasons via Forbes, and Chevron calling time on 55 years of oil and gas exploration in the North Sea. That's a wrap. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Oil pump jack model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US. © Gaurav Sharma October 2023.