Oilholics Synonymous Report: March 2026

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

A 'crude' view from Singapore as oil hits a crazy patch

As the Middle East crisis rages and the global oil market rides a roller-coaster, the Oilholic has headed out East to Singapore - Asia's energy gateway - to find out what contacts here make of the latest turmoil.

Here's a view of tankers in the waters off Singapore from this blogger's flight - British Airways BA 11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport - as it was coming in to land on Monday.

It is a customary sight that greets visitors to the City-state. For context, Singapore is a vital link between Middle Eastern crude producers and the high demand centres of Asia. It is among the world's top three trading hubs and has a refining capacity of 1.5 million plus barrels per day with the Jurong Island petrochemical complex at the heart of it all.

It is also the world's largest bunkering port for marine fuels supplying close to 55 million tons per annum based on data from various industry aggregators. Virtually, every major oil and gas firm has trading operations here, including energy behemoths from India to the UK.

And Singapore also happens to be a leader in building high-end FPSO - or Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading - units and jack-up rigs. All-in-all, there simply isn't a better place to gauge the market mood in Asia than Singapore, and that mood has turned sour pretty rapidly since the crisis began.

As yours truly was making his way from London to Singapore, the Brent front-month futures contract hit $100+ per barrel before retreating back to the $90s (on US President Donald's Trump's latest quip on Iran), and Brent-WTI differential came down to sub-$4 at one point.

Where is all this going in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East is what's worrying the industry here. True there is a lot of non-OPEC, non-Middle Eastern crude out in the market, but for high-demand Asian economies - the Middle East remains its main supplier, and for many the only supplier of crude.

For several Asian buyers supply restrictions from the Middle East are a source of huge anxiety. According to S&P Global Platts data, the region accounts for nearly 60% of all crude oil and petrochemical feedstock to Asia, with Saudi Arabia, UAE and Iraq being the leading exporters in that order.

Sourcing from elsewhere is both "problematic and expensive" says one market source. Geography lays bare the expensive bit of that. In normal circumstances, it takes 21 to 28 days from oil from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz to reach China. By comparison, West African or American crude takes 42 to 56 days to reach a comparable Chinese hub.

Furthermore, you can't just put a new crude configuration or another type from elsewhere in a snap - the problematic bit. That's because the cracking or processing points - as they are known in the industry - for separating crude oil into its various products, need to be adjusted.

Here's a BBC World Service explainer the Oilholic contributed to a few months back when the Venezuela situation erupted. These are troubling times for many in Asia who can't turn elsewhere and don't have the resourcing diversity that China and India have.

Two indicators - and rather clear ones too - happen to be that high sulphur bunker fuel delivered in Singapore has risen by over 40%, while jet fuel has risen by 140% (currently trading around ~$230 per barrel) since the conflict began.

Yours truly will continue to monitor what the coming days greet us with, but that's all for now folks. Next stop is Hong Kong. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Tankers off Singapore as seen from British Airways flight BA11 from London's Heathrow Airport to Singapore's Changi Airport on Monday, March 9, 2026. © Gaurav Sharma 2026.

Friday, March 06, 2026

Nearly a week in to the latest Middle East crisis

It's nearly coming up to a week since the latest Middle East crisis began last Saturday, after US and Israeli jets pounded Iran and took out its senior leadership. Tehran retaliated by hitting targets across the region embroiling several oil and gas producing Gulf states in a war that isn't of their choosing.

The skirmishes continue at the time of writing and the conflict is threatening to spiral out of control. Iran - which physically does not need to close the key maritime artery that's the Strait of Hormuz and actually can't - has threatened to do so. It has spooked both shipping firms and insurers thereby severely reducing transits in the Strait.

Brent and WTI front-month contracts are above $80 levels, with the former nearing $90 on Friday. Unsurprisingly, the Oilholic has spent the entirety of the week providing client intel and analysis, alongside changing travel plans to the region with air-space(s) shut and media commentary.

Natural gas prices are another matter of concern after Qatar stopped its LNG exports on Monday knocking off 20% of the world's LNG supply. It triggered a jump of over 40% to begin with before calm returned followed by another rise. Prices are higher at the moment but not at Ukraine War levels yet when the initial shock of that event hit the markets and lurked around for much of 2022.

Switching back to thoughts on the oil price - firstly, the reason we are not yet talking of $150 oil prices (or at least this blogger isn't) is largely thanks to the comfort cushion of non-OPEC crude barrels. Let's not forget that the market was heading for a surplus before the conflict started. Secondly, oil is not just a story of supply but one of demand too, which is looking pretty lacklustre in the run up to the conflict.

Secondly, what is US President Donald Trump's end goal? Quite possibly, some say almost certainly - regime change - and/or a destruction of both Iran's nuclear programme as well as its ability to militarily threaten the region directly or via proxies like Hezbollah, Houthi rebels and Hamas. All of these perhaps cannot be met via an aerial bombardment.

So where is the crisis going - an achieving of partial objectives and an off-ramp for the warring sides? A prolonged conflict? That's anybody's guess. But right now the market appears to be betting on an easing of hostilities within four to six weeks based on the soundbites from the White House.

If that happens to be the case, the market bulls currently out in force will enjoy a short-lived outing, and the perma-bulls are unlikely to get much joy. Since last Saturday, yours truly has also been discussing this and much more with publications, radio and television networks including Tagesspiegel, BBC World Service Radio, Energy Connects, Arabian Gulf Business Insights, Radio New Zealand, Al Jazeera English, TRT World and BBC World News.

That'd be seven days, eight media outlets, discussing where all this is heading to, all alongside modelling and making predictions for clients during an unprecedented global event.

Overall, the crude oil market finds itself in uncharted waters and a profound geopolitical crisis. But the price risk is at present manageable with OPEC+ currently somewhat of a spectator to what's unfolding. While a prolonged conflict could change that, we are not there yet.

Should we get there, high oil (and gas) prices would put inflationary pressures on consumers and industries to begin with felt most acutely in Europe and Asia. However, the domino effect would subsequently dent demand and global economic growth.

We're in for a roller-coaster over the coming weeks. Let's see what the coming days greet us with first. That's all for now folks. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!