A Brent crude price floor at $65 for now?

The global oil market saw crude futures jump to two-week highs on Thursday with the Brent front-month futures contract keeping up its defence of $65 per barrel. But for how long that is the question? 

What's just happened is that a dip in US inventories bumped up the prices a smidge, with little tangible movement on the Ukraine peace push by US President Donald Trump. 

But as The Oilholic told Reuters this morning, if the White House's efforts do result in a halt to hostilities in Ukraine, and Russia gradually coming back into the international fold, it will be bearish for the crude market. 

While for now the Brent price floor to watch out for remains at $65 per barrel, geopolitical infractions aside, there appears to be a mismatch in where the prices are at compared to current global OPEC and non-OPEC crude output levels. 

There will likely be a supply surplus as we enter the fourth quarter of the year and head to the first quarter of 2026, as yours truly said in a recent Al Jazeera interview.

Year-till-date, Brent remains down by around 10% and there's further ground to give. And well, that can only be price positive for global consumers. 

Away from crude prices, here are a couple of Forbes missives from this blogger published over the last few days on Elon Musk and Tesla's potential bid to shake-up the UK electricity market, and why New Zealand's lifting of its 2018 oil and gas drilling ban is unlikely to alleviate the industry pain and energy shortages it caused anytime soon. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on Al Jazeera English TV network. © Al Jazeera, August 2025. 

Speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025 in Milan, Italy, from September 9 to 12, one of the world's largest natural gas industry event. 

Explore this global event's critical conference agenda that is driving the energy transition through groundbreaking innovation, visionary leadership and action here.

Further details on the Oilholic's panels and sessions to follow here over the coming weeks.

Entering its 53rd year this September, Gastech will champion the role of natural gas in delivering affordable, reliable, low carbon energy to meet rising global energy demands. 

Over four days, Gastech will convene 50,000 attendees from over 150 countries, 1,000 exhibitors and 21,000 expert speakers, present company included, uniting the world’s leading energy professionals to power the sustainable energy ecosystem of tomorrow. 

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Milan. 

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Digital event banner courtesy of dmgevents, August 2025.

Seesawing crude price, fresh lows & more

Oil prices have been seesawing all of this week in the wake of another round of Trump Tariffs, an OPEC+ production hike, market uncertainty, and so it goes. You name it, the market bears have it with crude prices currently lurking around 8-week lows. 

Brent closed at its lowest since June 10 on Wednesday, while the WTI closed at its lowest since June 5. 

However, even if you were to drown out the latest din, it is almost inescapable that both benchmarks have struggled to meaningfully maintain a price floor of $70 a barrel. 

Specifically on the global proxy benchmark Brent, as The Oilholic told Reuters, for all of what has been thrown the oil market's way geopolitically, it has struggled to stay above $70 a barrel for any convincing length of time. 

At the time of writing, Brent is down by over 10% on the year, 9% on a six-month basis, and, even more tellingly 11% year-to-date. That's because despite the various permutations and shifts the market has seen, it essentially remains well supplied at a time of uncertain demand.

Furthermore, the various macro factors - most notably China’s manufacturing contraction, weak US labour market data, and the chaos of Trump Tariffs - continue to temper expectations of any sort of lasting bullishness for crude.

Away from crude prices, here are yours truly's Forbes missives on a 10th successive quarterly profit decline at Saudi Aramco, Shell's share buybacks despite its own profits dip, and BP's latest bid to cheer up its underwhelmed shareholders. 

Additionally, here's The Oilholic's latest column for Energy Connects on the sector's incremental embrace of industrial AI and the commercial opportunities that presents the technology industry. 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil pump jack building block model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023.

Exploring Elysian Aircraft's electric E9X plane concept

(Left to right: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst, Oilholics Synonymous, Reynard De Vries, Chief Engineer, Elysian Aircraft and Rob Wolleswinkel, Co-CEO and Chief Technology Officer, Elysian Aircraft) 

Earlier this month, The Oilholic headed out to Hoofddorp, The Netherlands, where in the shadow of one of the world's busiest transport hub - Schiphol Airport - startup Elysian Aircraft is attempting something rather unique. 

The company is aiming to build a narrow-body electric plane - something very few, if any, of its peers are having a crack at. In fact, up until the visit, this blogger had only encountered four to 20-seater zero air mobility concepts around the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) and electric conventional takeoff and landing (eCTOL) spheres. 

But Elysian's concept plane called the E9X will be capable of carrying 90 passengers over 500 miles on a single charge. The projected capacity is around half that of the airline industry's short-haul work-horses Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320. It would have a decent chance of success in an industry that appears desperate to lower its carbon footprint. 

To discuss the E9X's potential, pitfalls, development trajectory and taking it to market, The Oilholic sat down for both an off-record as well as on-record analyst's briefing with Elysian's co-founders Daniel Rosen Jacobson (Co-CEO), Reynard De Vries (Chief Engineer) and Rob Wolleswinkel (Co-CEO and chief technology officer) as well as four other members of the now 30-strong team. 

Based on the on-record exchanges with the team, here is the Oilholic's recent feature on Elysian for Forbes. As for the off-record discussions, the plane's proof of concept does stand up to independent scrutiny is all this blogger can say at present, something the startup itself has been working tirelessly on. 

A paper co-authored by De Vries and Wolleswinkel, and two others, published by the Delft University of Technology, is well worth a read too in this context, if you wish to. 

Furthermore, Wolleswinkel told this blogger that his colleagues are under no illusion about the magnitude of the task ahead, but have the courage of their convictions to make it happen in an emerging electric aircraft segment that is littered with more failures than signs of tangible successes.

The company's Series A funding is likely to close by the end of the current quarter, according to Jacobson, who added that it was all about taking "phased but assured steps forward" with patient capital investments. 

It remains a tough landscape of carbon-neutral air travel solutions. Therefore, it remains to be seen how it will go for this electric aviation startup. As things stand, the E9X prototype is expected in 2030, and a service entry by 2033. The Oilholic wishes Team Elysian Aircraft well and will now keep a very keen eye out for their progress. 

With those final thoughts, its time to take your leave. More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo I: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma with Elysian Aircraft's co-founders. Photo II: Elysian Aircraft's E9X conceptual image. © Elysian Aircraft, July 2025. 

On price caps and sub-$70 crude

Earlier this month, Brent crude futures touched $70 per barrel levels despite a suggested uptick in the amount of oil OPEC+ was bringing on to the market. 

The widely held belief here was that internal cheating or quota busting within OPEC+ ranks meant the announced increase wasn't what it was being made out to be. 

In step with that, Iran-backed Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea upped the geopolitical stakes a bit. 

Then a week ago, the EU and UK moved to lower the price cap on Russian crude from $60 per barrel to $47 per barrel, with effect from September 3. As inventory data at the time also pointed to a decline, traders took their cue and kept prices elevated. 

But keeping prices at $70 Brent levels looked unrealistic then, and has proven to be so in the sessions that have followed since. Thing is, as past Western sanctions and price caps on Russian crude have demonstrated, it always finds a way to reach where those willing to buy it need it, albeit at a discount that's priced comfortably above price cap. 

For instance, the previous price cap and sanctions regime did not prevent India from taking plenty of Russian crude, cracking it and exporting petroleum products and distillates around the world. This point hasn't been lost on the EU, which took a direct swipe at India's Nayara Energy (formerly Essar Oil) - the operator of the country's second-largest single-site refining complex in the coastal town of Vadinar, in which Russia's Rosneft has a stake. 

However, European curbs on Nayara's exports derived from Western sanctions-ridden Russian crude are unlikely to make any tangible difference to the wider scheme of things. India's exposure to the European market is not what it used to be, and its domestic market is more than capable of picking up middle distillate volumes left unexported. 

The wider crude market has also come to the belief that should China and India want Russian crude in higher volumes, they will find a way. Hence, the current decline in prices. Overall, there is ample crude in the market and current price levels are unlikely to be sustained. We are looking at a likely surplus from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, as yours truly noted via Forbes post earlier this month, if not earlier. As such lower prices may beckon. 

Finally, here are another couple of the Oilholic's Forbes missives - the first a take on OPEC's latest forecast dismissing peak oil demand and projecting a global demand growth of 123 million bpd by 2050 contrary to the opinion of many in the market, and the second, a take on how China and India are keeping coal in play and a future energy transition at bay! 

Well that's all for now folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015.