A Brent crude price floor at $65 for now?

The global oil market saw crude futures jump to two-week highs on Thursday with the Brent front-month futures contract keeping up its defence of $65 per barrel. But for how long that is the question? 

What's just happened is that a dip in US inventories bumped up the prices a smidge, with little tangible movement on the Ukraine peace push by US President Donald Trump. 

But as The Oilholic told Reuters this morning, if the White House's efforts do result in a halt to hostilities in Ukraine, and Russia gradually coming back into the international fold, it will be bearish for the crude market. 

While for now the Brent price floor to watch out for remains at $65 per barrel, geopolitical infractions aside, there appears to be a mismatch in where the prices are at compared to current global OPEC and non-OPEC crude output levels. 

There will likely be a supply surplus as we enter the fourth quarter of the year and head to the first quarter of 2026, as yours truly said in a recent Al Jazeera interview.

Year-till-date, Brent remains down by around 10% and there's further ground to give. And well, that can only be price positive for global consumers. 

Away from crude prices, here are a couple of Forbes missives from this blogger published over the last few days on Elon Musk and Tesla's potential bid to shake-up the UK electricity market, and why New Zealand's lifting of its 2018 oil and gas drilling ban is unlikely to alleviate the industry pain and energy shortages it caused anytime soon. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Photo: Energy analyst Gaurav Sharma on Al Jazeera English TV network. © Al Jazeera, August 2025. 

Speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025

Delighted to announce that yours truly will be speaking and moderating at Gastech 2025 in Milan, Italy, from September 9 to 12, one of the world's largest natural gas industry event. 

Explore this global event's critical conference agenda that is driving the energy transition through groundbreaking innovation, visionary leadership and action here.

Further details on the Oilholic's panels and sessions to follow here over the coming weeks.

Entering its 53rd year this September, Gastech will champion the role of natural gas in delivering affordable, reliable, low carbon energy to meet rising global energy demands. 

Over four days, Gastech will convene 50,000 attendees from over 150 countries, 1,000 exhibitors and 21,000 expert speakers, present company included, uniting the world’s leading energy professionals to power the sustainable energy ecosystem of tomorrow. 

Looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Milan. 

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2025. Digital event banner courtesy of dmgevents, August 2025.

Media missives from ADIPEC 2024

With ADIPEC 2024 drawing to a close on November 7, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week out in Abu Dhabi by hosting four pivotal industry panel sessions at the event on subjects ranging from climate finance to hydrogen markets in Asia.

Yours truly also hit the airwaves to discuss the wider energy market, impact of the US elections, an incoming Donald Trump administration and the various developments at ADIPEC 2024 which attracted over 200,000 people this year. 

These included broadcasting calls with the BBC, WION, Energy Connects and more, with this blogger's week also peppered with plenty of missives via the keyboard for Forbes, and of course this blog.

All blog entries for each ADIPEC day may be found here. And here are selected Forbes copies in chronological order based on soundbites and insight from the event. 

• ADNOC Boss Urges Energy Peers To Fully Embrace Power Of AI, November 4, 2024
• Donald Trump’s Presidency Will Likely Boost U.S. Oil Output In 2025, November 6, 2024
• Strait Of Hormuz: Why Iran Wont Harm Critical Oil Shipping Route, November 7, 2024
• British Energy Majors May Lean More On Oil And Gas To Boost Profits, November 8, 2024
• New U.K. Tax Rates Are Hammering North Sea Oil And Gas Drilling, November 12, 2024

That's a wrap for this year's ADIPEC. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Gaurav Sharma at ADIPEC 2024 studio in Abu Dhabi, UAE on November 4, 2024 © dmgevents /APCO Worldwide. 

ADIPEC 2024 sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Abu Dhabi, UAE for ADIPEC 2024, the world's largest energy conference and exhibition of its kind, being held here from November 4 to 7. Yours truly will be holding four panel sessions at the event with distinguished industry thought leaders. 

Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:

Monday, November 4, 2024 @ 15:30 GST

Climate finance: the role of the energy and finance sectors

With:

- Lina Osman, Managing Director & Head, Sustainable Finance - Africa and MENAP, Standard Chartered

- Bruce Johnson, Director, Corporate Finance and Treasury, Masdar 

- Jassim AlSane, Co-head of Investment Banking MENA, Goldman Sachs 

- Debnath Mukhopadhyay, CFO, TruAlt Bioenergy

(Click image to enlarge)

Tuesday, November 5, 2024 @10:00 GST

Standardised sustainability reporting: building energy transition trust to boost investment 

With:

- Karim Arslan, Executive Director, Green & Sustainable Finance Originator, Green & Sustainable Hub, Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking

- Semih Ozkan, Executive Director, EMEA Energy, Power, Renewables, Metals & Mining, J.P. Morgan

- Don Dimitrievich, Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager for Energy Infrastructure Credit, Nuveen

(Click image to enlarge)

Wednesday, November 6, 2024 @14:30 GST

Asia’s role in defining the hydrogen market

With:

- The Right Honourable Abang Johari Tun Openg, Premier of Sarawak, Malaysia

- Hiroshi Matsuda, Chief Regional Officer, EMEA, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 

- Koji Yamamoto, SVP, JOGMEC 

- Shoichi Kaganoi, SVP, Hydrogen & CCUS Development, INPEX

- Karine Boissy-Rousseau, VP Green Gases, TotalEnergies

(Click image to enlarge)

Thursday, November 7, 2024 @11:45 GST

The strategic role of NGOs in unlocking energy investment for emerging economies

With:

- Maha Attia, Assistant Vice Chairman for Foreign Trade, Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS) 

- Madadh MacLaine, Secretary General, Zero Emissions Ship Technology Association (ZESTAs) 

- Huda Al Houqani, Director, Abu Dhabi Sustainability Group (ADSG)

- Michel Abi Saab, General Manager, Emerge

(Click image to enlarge)

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo © Gastech / dmgevents 2024. 

Media missives from Gastech 2024

With Gastech 2024 drawing to a close on September 20, the Oilholic capped a fascinating and engaging week in Houston by hosting two pivotal industry fireside chats with H.E. Hardeep Singh Puri, Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas, India and Chris Ashton, CEO of Worley.

And it was wonderful moderating multiple panel sessions on subjects ranging from harnessing the potential of natural gas for powering AI to solutions for the decarbonization of the global transport complex and climatetech finance.

Yours truly also hit the airwaves to discuss the energy market and developments at the conference. The final broadcasting call before departing was with the BBC, with this blogger's week out in Houston peppered with plenty of other missives via the keyboard for Forbes, and of course via this blog.

All blog entries for each Gastech may be found here. And here are selected Forbes copies in chronological order based on soundbites and insight from the event. 

• Energy Bosses Demand Clear And Consistent U.S. Policies On Natural Gas, September 18, 2024.
• India’s Energy Source Shifting Agility Will Define Its Transition, Says Oil Minister, September 20, 2024.
• UK’s Cleantech And Green Energy Focused ‘Wealth Fund’ Is Anything But, September 24, 2024.

And that's a wrap for Gastech. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo: Gaurav Sharma on BBC News on September 18, 2024 © BBC. 

Gastech Days III & IV: Harnessing the power of natural gas and climatetech

Over the course of Thursday and Friday - days III & IV - of Gastech 2024 that put us on the home stretch towards the conclusion of global event, many of the conversations revolved around climatetech and harnessing the power of natural gas as a destination fuel in the world's march to a low to a zero carbon future. 

An action packed agenda was underpinned by several movers and shakers in the natural gas space especially LNG terminal developers and operators from Venture Global LNG to Mexico Pacific. 

Meanwhile, energy major Shell emphatically declared its intentions of continuing to expand its global LNG portfolio predicated in its belief of an expected industry growth of 50% by 2040. It also noted that North America's total upcoming LNG exports alone could account for around 30% of global demand by 2030. 

Many thought leaders also echoed each others' belief that decarbonizing industry and transportation would involve natural gas in close step with emerging technologies. Yours truly hosted panels on both transport sector decarbonization as well as climatetech on Thursday. 

The first of these was titled - Decarbonizing heavy transportation: Collaborations to address the acceleration of climate technology solutions from development to deployment. The panellists included Sukhmal Jain, Director (Marketing) & Board Member, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, Yoki Firnandi, CEO, PT Pertamina International Shipping, Meg Gentle, Executive Director, HIF Global and Mark S. Brownstein, SVP, Environmental Defense Fund. 

Decarbonizing heavy transport, specifically shipping, aviation and HGV remains a key challenge in addressing climate change. 

The panellists discussed how to steer the transport industry to net zero by 2050, robust strategies that will be needed to stimulate supportive policies, innovation in technologies and collaboration across the value chain to drive the adoption of low- and zero-carbon fuels.

We also discussed some of the barriers to investment in zero-emissions fuelling infrastructure, including biofuels, hydrogen and clean ammonia, which can pave the way for achieving their long-term supply and the climate benefits of decarbonization and some of the incentives that may be required. 

Next yours truly's attention turned to climatetech via a panel titled - Fostering greater climate technology innovation, deployment, and scale across the value chain. Eminent panellists included - Mahdi Aladel, CEO, Aramco Ventures, Paula Gant, President & CEO, GTI Energy and Vikas Dhole,  Vikas Dhole, GM of Project Management, AspenTech. 

Climatetech innovation holds the key to ensuring a significant decarbonization of energy systems and GHG emissions reductions. 

The panel deliberated how governments, the energy value chain and the emerging climate technology market overcome challenges related to scalability, matching market demand with new energy supply and a lack of the workforce skills needed to drive further adoption and deployment of low-carbon technologies.  

As proceedings began to wind down late on Wednesday and early Thursday, attention turned to passing the baton on to next year's Gastech destination - Milan - which was revealed as the next host city for Gastech 2025. 

Simon Ford, Vice President, Gastech, dmgevents, said this year's event had seen participation of attendees from over 150 countries, including 50 official government delegations. 

The occasion was marked a lovely launch evening party before everyone bid goodbye to H-Town following an insightful and fantastic energy event that will live long in the industry's memory. Well that's all from Gastech 2024. See you at Gastech 2025 in Milan. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: The George R. Brown Convention Center, Houston, Texas, U.S. - Venue of Gastech 2024. Photo II: Gastech 2024 Strategic Panel on Decarbonizing heavy transportation: Collaborations to address the acceleration of climate technology solutions from development to deployment moderated by Gaurav Sharma. Photo III: Gastech 2025 Launch Reception at The Corinthian, Houston, Texas, US. © Gaurav Sharma 2024. 

Gastech Days I & II: Energy transformation through innovation

The first two days of Gastech 2024 have flown by with talking points aplenty and a who's-who of the energy industry in Houston at the city's George R. Brown Convention Center. 

Former US President George W. Bush got things going on Monday night by highlighting his state and country's achievements in the global energy sphere at the Gastech pre-event gala dinner. 

The state of Texas is the US' top crude oil and natural gas producing state. It also has the nation's highest refining capacity by some distance and remains a wind power leader. As Q4 2024 approaches, the US remains world's largest LNG exporter and its largest crude oil producer. 

However, as Day I of Gastech - which is formally running from September 17 to 20 - kicked off on Tuesday, energy bosses bemoaned the lack of clarity and consistency from Washington on policy matters pertaining to natural gas exploration and LNG permits. (Read full report for Forbes here)

The Oilholic kick-started his Gastech 2024 speaking circuit journey on Tuesday as well, with India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri - a seasoned diplomat turned politician and a lively keynote speaker at international events. 

Our fireside chat was titled 'Energy transformation through innovation and investment'. It also served as a curtain raiser for India Energy Week 2025. 

Puri explained how India was managing the cyclical volatility in the energy market, its efforts aimed at improving energy diversity, investments in renewables and a call for changing the paradigm from a production-oriented approach to a more consumption-oriented approach. All at a time when oil prices are currently lurking around 2021 lows. 

The event's exhibition floor also opened its doors on the first morning for the 4-day event, with 800 exhibitors and 20 international country pavilions. Overall 50,000 attendees are expected this week, with 7,000 delegates from 125 countries. 

Later on Tuesday, yours truly also hosted a pivotal panel discussion titled 'Harnessing the advantages of natural gas to fuel the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.' 

The panellists included Rebekah Eggers, Global Client Engagement & Innovation Director, Energy & Resources Sector, IBM, Arun Kumar Singh, Chairman & CEO, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd, Ken West, President & CEO, Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions, Naser Al Yafei, SVP, Strategy, Sustainability & Transformation, ADNOC Gas, and Matthew Babin, Head of Energy & Natural Resources, Palantir Technologies. 

The panel touched on the growing need for electricity - often and increasingly generated by natural gas plants - to power data centers and fuel the AI revolution. This is expected to drive a surge in natural gas demand. 

Some panellists noted that natural gas is the most cost efficient energy source capable of delivering the round-the-clock, reliable power required by tech giants. Others said AI itself could chalk sustainable future pathways predicated on renewables. 

It better be, for according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global power demand from data centers could skyrocket to over 1,000 TWh by 2026 – double the levels seen in 2022. 

It is a subject area yours truly rounded up the first day of Gastech 2024 with a BBC Business Today interview with Sally Bundock. We talked about the complexities and opportunities of using natural gas to power the AI revolution which seems to be the most plausible near-term solution. 

Day II - Wednesday - brought further profound discussions on the energy transition and learning to do more (in terms of throughput) with less (energy). It is something the engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) segment is taking pretty seriously. 

The Oilholic touched on the subject in a fireside chat with Chris Ashton, CEO of Worley, who discussed how contractors manage these variables in today’s operational landscape and are having to contend with a high interest rate and inflation climate in a very competitive industry. 

Ashton also offered perspectives on how AI, new technologies and innovative approaches are revolutionizing energy networks, power grids and gas infrastructure, and how these advancements contribute to the efficient and cost-effective completion of projects to accelerate the path toward net zero. 

That's all for now folks. There's plenty more to come from yours truly from Gastech. So keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo I: Houston's George R. Brown Convention Center, the venue of Gastech 2024. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma holds a fireside chat with Hardeep Singh Puri, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India on 17.09.24. Photo III: Gastech 2024 exhibition floor. Photo IV: Gaurav Sharma on BBC World Business Today on 17.09.24 at 11:46 CDT. (Courtesy: BBC) Photo V: Gaurav Sharma holds a fireside chat with Chris Ashton, CEO of Worley on 18.09.24.

Gastech 2024 sessions to be hosted by yours truly

The Oilholic is delighted to be back in Houston, Texas, US for Gastech 2024, one of the world's largest energy industry fixtures, being held here from September 17 to 20. Yours truly will be holding three panel sessions and two fireside chats at the event with Hardeep Singh Puri, India's Honorable Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, and Chris Ashton, Chief Executive Officer of Worley. 

The three panels will include distinguished industry thought leaders. Please do join if you can for some fantastic and insightful industry dialogues. Here are the details of the sessions:

Tuesday, September 17, 2024 @ 12:45 pm CDT

IEW2025: Energy transformation through innovation and investment

With His Excellency Hardeep Singh Puri, Honorable Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India

(Click image to enlarge for details)

Tuesday, September 17, 2024 @ 4:50 pm CDT

Harnessing the advantages of natural gas to fuel the Artificial Intelligence revolution

With:

- Rebekah Eggers, Global Client Engagement & Innovation Director, Energy & Resources Sector, IBM

- Arun Kumar Singh, Chairman & CEO, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd

- Ken West, President & CEO, Honeywell Energy and Sustainability Solutions 

- Naser Al Yafei, SVP - Strategy, Sustainability & Transformation, ADNOC Gas

- Matthew Babin, Head of Energy & Natural Resources, Palantir Technologies

(Click image to enlarge for details)

September 18, 2024 @ 10:40 am CDT

Delivering projects in a challenging operating and cost environment

Executive leadership fireside chat with Chris Ashton, CEO, Worley

(Click image to enlarge for details)

September 19, 2024 @ 10:45 am CDT

Decarbonizing heavy transportation: Collaborations to address the acceleration of climate technology solutions from development to deployment

With:

- Sukhmal Jain, Director (Marketing) & Board Member, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited

- Yoki Firnandi, CEO, PT Pertamina International Shipping

- Meg Gentle, Executive Director, HIF Global

- Mark S. Brownstein, SVP, Environmental Defense Fund

(Click image to enlarge for details)

September 19, 2024 @ 2 pm CDT

Fostering greater climate technology innovation, deployment, and scale across the value chain

With:

- Mahdi Aladel, CEO of Aramco Ventures

- Paula Gant, President & CEO, GTI Energy

- Vikas Dhole, GM of Project Management, AspenTech

(Click image to enlarge for details)

Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2024. Photo © Gastech / dmgevents 2024. 

Turkey Energy Summit and Eastern Med tussles

The Oilholic is about to complete a quick visit for a speaking engagement at the 10th Turkey Energy Summit in Altalya on the sunny shores of the Mediterranean, off the coast of which is brewing an almighty tussle for natural gas riches. 

For Eastern Mediterranean offshore prospection could potentially provide a pathway to over 70 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. 

With great resource riches often come great geopolitical tensions. Cyprus has awarded drilling licences to its preferred partners, but Turkey which invaded the island in 1974 following a Greek-inspired coup and created a Northern Turkish Cypriot enclave in its wake, won't have any of it. 

Its response has been to send drilling ships of its own to howls from the EU and US, and of course Cyprus. But Turkey's Energy Minister Fatih Donmez told the summit in his keynote speech that Ankara won't be backing down, and more has emerged on the Turkish stance since. Here's yours truly's full report for Forbes. 

All the more fitting it was then that this blogger moderated two panels at the summit on 7 and 8 October, touching on geopolitics and its impact on energy and commodities market, and LNG market permutations. 

It was a pleasure and privilege to have conducted them and having partaken in some exciting and engaging industry dialogues. 

Alas, it is now time for the flight home, but before one takes your leave, here's a glimpse of Antalya's amazing coastline. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo 1: Gaurav Sharma (left), moderates the geopolitics session at the 10th Turkey Energy Summit in Antalya, Oct 7, 2019 © Turkey Energy Summit. Photo 2: Coastline of Belek, Antalya © Gaurav Sharma, October 2019. 

Enhanced gas recovery & the good folks at DGOC

The Oilholic just got back from a quick turnaround research trip to the US Appalachian Basin covering the hydrocarbon rich prospection patch between Morgantown, West Virginia and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

The latter being that promised American departure point yours truly told you about in 2016, where even the airport authority is privy to the proceeds natural gas! 

Having spent the last six months being convinced by academics and policy wonks that the Appalachian Basin is in trouble given oversupply, pipeline capacity issues, and the prospect of sub-$2/MMBtu Henry Hub prices, it was a breath of fresh air listening to the good folks at Diversified Gas and Oil Plc (LON:DGOC).

The company is currently listed on AIM, has formally announced its intention to move to London's main market and says that business is good. DGOC's simple, effective modus operandi is going after mature long life conventional wells in the region, often neglected by exploration and production firms obsessed with unconventional shale exploration.

The company's CEO Rusty Hutson (fifth from left), COO Brad Gray (second from left) and their team on the ground in Pennsylvania took this blogger around their patch explaining their methods, which include deploying a surprisingly low amount of contractors on site, entrusting employees to chart cost effective, efficient and resource maximising pathways, and of course some prudent management.

Hutson and Gray are also pretty acquisitive almost, always fishing around for primarily natural gas assets they can buy, often at low cost, to turn them around. To give the readers a flavour, recent sellers to DGOC have included the likes of EQT, CNX and Anadarko.

By drilling few wells, and mainly operating and maximising already onstream wells totalling over 60,000, team DGOC believe they can make a decent margin even at $2/MMbtu Henry Hub prices with smart strategic hedging, including hedges stretching 10 years out in the case of some instruments they have deployed.

If enhanced hydrocarbon recovery will bring about a new output wave stateside as many market commentators think, DGOC's contribution is over 92,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) to that pool and rising.

You can expect more of the same, and more, Hutson assures the Oilholic. More observations from the trip to follow for publishing outlets but that's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

Addendum I - 27.09.19: Thoughts via Rigzone - 'Smart' Appalachian Operators Can Handle Sub $2 Natural Gas. Click here.

Addendum II - 07.10.19: Thoughts via Forbes - Enhanced Recovery Maverick: Meet West Virginia Oilman Taking Resource Maximization To New Heights. Click here.

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To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photo I: Morgantown, West Verginia, US from the air. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2019. Photo II & III: Gaurav Sharma onsite with DGOC personnel in Pennsylvania, US © Ben Romney, September 2019. 

Moroccan perspective on natural gas market

The current situation in the natural gas market has several variables as we enter the first quarter of 2019. But before anything else, what price levels we are at would be a good conversation starter. Using the US Henry Hub as a benchmark, it remains stuck around $3/mmbtu. For Europe, adding an average $2+ mmbtu would be about par.

After a late December collapse, natural gas prices were seemingly being held down by higher than normal winter temperatures, before a big freeze hits several parts of Europe and North America. As for the market itself, most of the chatter these days is about how US LNG - both small and large scale - will add to the global supply pool with the country's capacity tipped to cap 40 million tonnes per annum (tpa) in 2019. 

As the Americans increasingly tussle with other major LNG exporters such as Qatar, Malaysia and Australia for a slice of the global market, Morocco - a net energy importer, albeit with substantial natural gas reserves - is in a reasonably positive position. 

The country has proven reserves of some 1.44 billion cubic meters (bcf) of natural gas, according to the CIA World Factbook, but domestic production is not even a tenth of that volume. Rabat is attempting to alter that dynamic via several independent upstarts led by SDX Energy, and accompanied by the likes of Sound Energy (which recently said it would focus exclusively on Morocco) and Chariot Oil & Gas. 

Seeing potential, the government is offering attractive terms to exploration and production companies (refer to the Oilholic's previous post on the subject). But until Morocco meaningfully discovers its domestic production mojo, the US shale gas bonanza couldn't have come at a more opportune time, as Rabat looks ensure security of supply over the medium-term. In October 2018, Energy Minister Aziz Rabbah confirmed that Morocco is preparing to invite bids for a LNG project in Jorf Lasfar worth $4.5 billion.

It includes construction of a jetty, terminal, pipelines and gas-fired power plants, ultimately leading to the import of up to 7 billion cubic metres of gas by 2025, in a very competitive global gas buyers' market. 

The announcement follows state-owned power utility ONEE announcement in 2017 that it had picked HSBC Middle East as a financial adviser for its plan to boost imports of LNG. The scenario provides plenty of talking points, which is why the Oilholic is heading to Morocco in February to speak and deliberate at the 2nd Morocco Oil & Gas Summit in Marrakesh, February 6-7, 2019, being organised by IN-VR Oil & Gas. 

It's all set up nicely, and this blogger early awaits the summit. But that’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Photos: Cairn Energy / IN-VR Oil & Gas

Kerfuffle over fracking in the UK

Earlier this week the Oilholic noted plenty of predictable commotion as the UK finally got fracking following years of legal limbo. On Monday (October 15), Cuadrilla confirmed it had started fracking at its natural gas prospection site in Little Plumpton, Lancashire, after the failure of a legal challenge the previous week.

Here's the Oilholic's take on the development via Forbes, but amid the pro and anti-fracking hot air, shouty crackers and genteel debaters, statements and counter-statements, an interesting report from the pro-shale 'Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)' found its way into this blogger's mailbox.

Having done a review of UK media coverage about fracking, it concludes that major outlets have been "hyping claims of environmentalists while playing down the benefits" of shale gas. GWPF's Andrew Montford is particularly scathing about the output of the Guardian and the BBC. 

"They tend to recount wild stories and then move on without correcting the record. The public should therefore be very cautious about what they read on the subject in the next few weeks, as shale gas fracking begins in the UK."

Here is Montford's review (PDF download); you be the judge of it! That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

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Importance of Khazzan-Makarem gas field for BP

When the Oilholic paid a visit to Oman couple of years ago, natural gas was not atop the list of ‘crude’ industry intelligence gathering activities, one must admit. The Sultanate perhaps has the richest quality of all Middle Eastern crude oil varieties but there’s not a lot of it around, nor is Oman's reserves position anywhere near as strong as that of its neighbours.

Nonetheless, oil matters took up much of this blogger’s time and effort, including an excursion to the Musandam Peninsula, where Oman is in the process of having a decent crack at its first offshore exploration. The crucial subject of Omani natural gas largely slipped under the radar there and then, and largely up until now. 

That’s until this blogger recently met David Eyton, Group Head of Technology at BP, for a fascinating Forbes interview (click here) on how the oil major is using digital tools such as 4D seismic to reshape the way it operates both upstream and downstream, and the subject of Oman came up.

The country's Khazzan-Makarem gas field is in fact among the many places benefiting from BP’s research and development spend of around two-thirds of a billion dollars per annum towards digital enablement of surveying, and more. What’s at stake for BP, and for Oman, is Khazzan’s proven reserve base of 100 trillion cubic feet. Unlike Shell, its FTSE 100 peer, BP isn’t digging for oil in the Sultanate, making the gas field – which it discovered in 2000 – a signature play.

At its core is Block 61, operated by BP Oman and Oman Oil Company Exploration and Production in a 60:40 joint venture partnership. Eyton says some of BP’s patented digital tools, including 4D seismic, are being deployed to full strength with a drilling schedule of approximately 300 wells over a 15 year period to achieve a plateau production rate of 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

“Khazzan has massive potential. It’s not shale in the strictest sense, but pretty tight gas and mighty difficult to crack owing to the low porosity of the reservoir rock,” Eyton said.

Invariably, BP has brought the full works into play to realise Block 61’s potential, drilling horizontal wells and using hydraulic fracturing technologies. "Advanced seismic imaging has played a huge part in understanding where the best bits of the reservoir are, and how to unlock them. Ultimately, that’s enabling development to proceed at a far better pace."

Construction work on Khazzan has commenced and first gas is expected in late 2017. Implications of Block 61 yielding meaningful volumes, as expected, cannot be understated. For Oman, the projected 1.2 bcf in daily production volume would be equivalent to an increment of over 30% of its total daily gas supply.

Concurrently, BP would look back in satisfaction at a Middle Eastern foray on business terms few oil and gas markets, bar Oman, would offer in an age of resource nationalism. As for the technology being deployed, it is already a winner, according to Eyton. That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2015. Photo: David Eyton, Group Head of Technology at BP © Graham Trott / BP

Statoil’s move & a crude view from Oslo

The Oilholic finds himself in Oslo, Norway for the briefest of visits at a rather interesting time. For starters, back home in London town, recent outages at Norway's Statoil-operated Heimdal Riser platform are still causing jitters and firming up spot natural gas prices despite the low demand. Although it’s a lot calmer than last Wednesday as order has been restored. The UK is also soaking in news that Norway's US$760 billion oil fund (the world's biggest investor), has cut its British government debt holdings by a whopping 26% to NKr42.9 billion (£4.51 billion, $7.26 billion) and increased its Japanese government bond holdings by 30% to NKr129.5 billion.

However, the biggest story in Oslo is Statoil’s decision to sell minority stakes in several key offshore fields in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea and far north to Austria's OMV. To digest all of that, the Oilholic truly needed a pint of beer – but alas that hurts here! No, not the alcohol – but the price! On average, a pint of beer at a bar on Karl Johans Gate with a view of the Royal Palace (pictured above left) is likely to set you back by NKr74 (£8.20 yes you read that right £8.20). Monstrous one says! Anyways, this blog is called Oilholics Synonymous not Alcoholics Anonymous – so back to 'crude' matters.

Chatter here is dominated by the Statoil decision to sell offshore stakes for which OMV forked-up US$2.65 billion (£1.7 billion). The Norwegian oil giant said the move freed up much needed funds for capex. Giving details, the company announced it had reduced its ownership in the Gullfaks field to 51% from 70% and in Gudrun field to 51% from 75%.

The production impact for Statoil from the transaction is estimated to be around 40,000 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day in 2014, based on equity and 60 boe per day in 2016, according to a company release. However, Chief Executive Helge Lund told Reuters that the company will still have the capacity to deliver on its 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) ambition in 2020.

"But we will of course evaluate it as we go along, whether that is the best way of creating value.It will impact the short-term production...but we are not making any changes to our guiding at this stage," he added.

For OMV, the move will raise its proven and probable reserves by about 320 million boe or nearly a fifth. What is price positive for Austrian consumers is the fact that it will also boost OMV’s production by about 40,000 bpd as early as 2014.

Statoil’s consideration might be one of capex; for the wider world the importance of the deal is in the detail. First of all, it puts another boot into the North Sea naysayers (who have gone a bit quiet of late). There is very valid conjecture that the North Sea is in decline - hardly anyone disputes that, but investment is rising and has shot up of late. The Statoil-OMV deal lends more weight that there's still 'crude' life in the North Sea.

Secondly, $2.65 billion is no small change, even in terms relative to the oil & gas business. Finally, OMV is a unique needs-based partner for Statoil. The Oilholic is not implying it’s a strange choice. In fact, both parties need to be applauded for their boldness. Furthermore, OMV will also cover Statoil's capex between January 1 and the closing of the deal, which could potentially raise the final valuation to $3.2 billion in total, according to a source.

And, for both oil firms it does not end here. OMV and Statoil have also agreed to cooperate, contingent upon situation and options, on Statoil's 11 exploration licences in the North Sea, West of Shetland and Faroe Islands.

Continuing the all around positive feel, Statoil also announced a gas and condensate discovery near the Smørbukk field in the Norwegian Sea. However, talking to the local media outlets, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate played down the size of the discovery estimating it to be between 4 and 7.5 million cubic metres of recoverable oil equivalents. Nonetheless, every little helps.

Right that’s about enough of crude chatter for the moment. There’s a Jazz festival on here in Oslo (see above right) which the Oilholic has well and truly enjoyed and so has Oslo which is basking in the sunshine in more ways than one. But this blogger also feels inclined to share a few other of his amateur photos from this beautiful city – (clockwise below from left to right, click image to enlarge) – views of the Oslofjord from Bygdøy museums, sculptures at Frogner Park and the Edvard Munch Museum, which is currently celebrating 150 years since the birth of the Norwegian great in 1863.

Away from the sights, just one final crude point – data from ICE Futures Europe suggests that hedge funds (and other money managers) raised bullish bets on Brent to their highest level in more than two years in the week ended August 13.

In its weekly Commitments of Traders report, ICE noted – speculative bets that prices will rise, in futures and options combined, outnumbered short positions by 193,527 lots; up 2.5% from the previous week and is the highest since January 2011. Could be higher but that’s the date ICE started the current data series – so there’s no way of knowing.

In the backdrop are the troubles in Egypt. As a sound Norwegian seaman might tell you – it’s not about what Egypt contributes to the global crude pool in boe equivalent (not much), but rather about disruption to oil tankers and shipping traffic via the Suez Canal. That’s all from Oslo folks. Next stop – Abu Dhabi, UAE! Keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

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© Gaurav Sharma 2013. Photo 1: View of the Royal Palace from Karl Johans Gate, Oslo, Norway. Photo collage: Various views of Oslo, Norway © Gaurav Sharma, August, 2013.

Hawaii’s crude reality: Being a petrohead costs!

In a break from the ‘crude’ norm for visits to the USA, the Oilholic packed his bags from California and headed deep out to the Pacific and say ‘Aloha’ to newest and 50th United State of Hawaii. It’s good to be here in the Kona district of the Big Island and realise that Tokyo is a lot closer than London.

It is interesting to note that Hawaii is the only US state still retaining the Union Jack in its flag and insignia. The whole flag itself is a deliberate hybrid symbol of British and American historic ties to Hawaii and traces its origins to Captain John Vancouver – the British Naval officer after whom the US and Canadian cities of Vancouver and Alaska’s Mount Vancouver are named.

What’s not good being here is realising that a 1.3 million plus residents of these northernmost isles in Polynesia pay the most for their energy and electricity needs from amongst their fellow citizens in the US. It is easy to see why, as part dictated by location constraints Hawaii presently generates over 75% of its electricity by burning Petroleum.

Giving the geography and physical challenges, most of the crude oil is shipped either from Alaska and California or overseas. Furthermore, the Islands have no pipelines as building these is not possible owing to volcanic and seismic activity. Here’s a view of one active crater – the Halema’uma’u in Kilauea Caldera (see above right). You can actually smell the sulphur dioxide while there as the Oilholic was earlier today. In fact the entire archipelago was created courtesy of volcanic eruptions millions of years ago. The Big Island’s landmass of five plates is created out of Mauna Kea (dormant) and Mauna Loa (partly active) and the island is technically growing at moment as Kilaueu still spews lava which cools and forms land.

So both crude and distillates have to be moved by oil tankers between the islands or tanker lorries on an intra-island basis. The latter  creates regional pricing disparities. For instance in Hilo, the commercial heart of the Big Island and where the tanker docking stations are, gasoline is cheaper than Kona by almost 40-50 cents per gallon. The latter receives its distillates by road once tankers have docked at Hilo.

The state has two refineries both at Kapolei on the island of O‘ahu 20 miles west of capital Honolulu – one apiece owned by Tesoro and Chevron. The bigger of the two has a 93,700 barrels per day (bpd) and is owned by Tesoro; the recent buyer of BP’s Carson facility. However in January Tesoro put its Hawaiian asset up for sale.

Tesoro, which bought the refinery for US$275 million from BHP Petroleum Americas in 1998, said it no longer fitted with its strategic focus on the US Midcontinent and West Cost. The company expects the sale to be completed by the end of the year. Its Hawaiian retail operations, which include 32 gas stations, will also be part of the deal. Chevron operates Kapolei’s other refinery with a 54,000 bpd capacity. Between the two, there is enough capacity to meet Hawaii’s guzzling needs and the pressures imposed by US forces operations in the area.

In this serene paradise with volcanic activity and ample tidal movement, power generation from tidal and geothermal is not inconceivable and facilities do exist. In fact, for the remaining 25% of its energy mix, the state is one of eight US states with geothermal power generation and ranks third among them. Additionally, solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity increased by 150% in 2011, making Hawaii the 11th biggest US state for PV capacity. However, it is not nearly enough.

One simple solution that is being attempted is natural gas – something which local officials confirmed to the Oilholic. The EIA has also noted Hawaii’s moves in this direction. Oddly enough, while Hawaii hardly uses much natural gas, it is one of a handful of US states which actually produces synthetic natural gas. Switching from petroleum-based power generation to natural gas for much of Hawaii’s power generation could lower the state’s power bills considerably as the massive disconnect between US natural gas and crude oil prices looks set to continue.

Strong ‘gassy’ moves are afoot and anecdotal evidence here suggests feelers are being sent out to Canada, among others. In August, Hawaii Gas applied for a permit with the Federal Government to ship LNG to Hawaii from the West Coast. While the deliveries will commence later this year, arriving volumes of LNG would be small in the first phase of the project, according to Hawaii Gas. At least it is a start and the State House Bill 1464 now requires public utilities to provide 25% of net electricity sales from renewable sources by December 31, 2020 and 40% of net electricity sales from renewables by December 31, 2030.

That’s all for the moment folks as the Oilholic needs to explore the Big Island further via the old fashioned way which requires no crude or distillates – its the trusty old bicycle! Going back to history, it was Captain James Cook and not Vancouver who located these isles for the Western World in 1778. Regrettably, he got cooked following fracas with the locals in 1779 and peace was not made between Brits and locals until Vancouver returned years later.

Moving away from history, yours truly leaves you with a peaceful view of Punaluʻu or the Black Sand beach (see above left)! It is what nature magnificently created when fast flowing molten lava rapidly cooled and reached the Pacific Ocean. According to a US Park Ranger, the beach’s black sand is made of basalt with a high carbon content. It is a sight to behold and the Oilholic is truly beholden! On a visit there, you have a 99.99% chance of spotting the endangered Hawksbill and Green turtles lounging on the black sand. For once, yours truly is glad there are no bloody pipelines in the area blotting the landscape. More from Hawaii later - keep reading, keep it ‘crude’!

© Gaurav Sharma 2012. Photo 1: Halema’uma’u, Kilauea Caldera. Photo 2: Punaluʻu - the Black Sand beach, Hawaii, USA © Gaurav Sharma 2012.