How much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz?

Another week, another round of skirmishes between US Navy and Iran, and another all-too-predictable geopolitical risk premium-driven oil price spike. 

In fact, the Brent front-month futures contract is back lurking around $100 mark on renewed fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. 

For now, many in the market are wondering just how much oil is indeed getting through the strait at the moment. 

However, assessing that is proving pretty tricky. Data aggregators are reporting different numbers of ships now passing through the key maritime artery that Iran disrupted in the wake of the war, and continues to disrupt.

Versus a pre-war volume of 20 million barrels per day, down to near zero at the height of the war (in March and April) and back up in June during a short-lived ceasefire - latest empirical and anecdotal evidence from this blogger's sources puts the volume in the range of 5 to 9 million bpd. 

This is hotly contested, as noted by Kpler, in a blog explaining why figures vary and why its range is 5 to 10 million bpd. Nuances in data gathering aside, vessels also "go dark" switching their trackers off, travel in the dark and in protected convoys near the Oman coastline. 

That protection is near always provided by the US Navy which leaves its government the only source of concrete data. Figures published by it put oil transits at the upper end of the range around 10 million bpd. 

And on September 2, Energy Secretary Chris Wright put the figure above 17 million bpd whilst talking to the media - the highest since the war began. 

In other interviews, including one with Fox News, Wright defended US data quipping: "Why would we lie?" 

That is a fair point, because if the statistics on volumes are fiddled - they will eventually be found out. 

In the meantime, oil prices remain volatile contingent upon the news flow and will likely remain that way for now. Here is the Oilholic's latest Forbes post on the developments and more. Where its all going is anyone's guess. 

Well that's all for the moment folks! Leaving you all with two photos of the Strait of Hormuz (above) taken by this blogger from the Omani coastline some 13 years ago. It was a tad calmer back then. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I & II: View of the Strait of Hormuz from Khasab, Musandam Peninsula, Oman. © Gaurav Sharma, August, 2013.

Back to a "highest since July" oil market

Another month of uncertainty in the Middle East has resulted in another round of wild price swings in the oil market, and often heard quips of Brent and WTI futures having hit their highest since July. That was literally just a month ago. 

US President Donald Trump's latest move is to hit Iran economically. With all else failing to resolve a safe and certain passage of energy (and other) cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz, and major regional exporters like Saudi Arabia and UAE exploring alternative transit routes, focus of the White House has now turned to crippling Iran's economy intertwined with its energy industry via non-military means. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the latest move as "an economic D-Day" and "the single greatest financial offensive ever" - the full details of which will follow over the coming weeks. Given the limited range of options available to bring a swift end to the tension, such a long shot is worth a try, even if the Islamic republic's capacity to ride it out and pass on the hardship to its people is pretty well documented. 

Meanwhile, the oil market is learning to live with the diplomatic deadlock of the past few months following on from the breaking out of hostilities on February 28. It has become a sort of a 'perma-crisis' or a permanent crisis as risk premiums subside only to rise again, and more of the same.

In recent weeks we have seen crude oil cargoes continue to move under the cloud of geopolitical uncertainty largely along the Omani coastline. Various data aggregators indicate the figure may be somewhere in the region of 9-10.5 million barrels per day. Now, even if taken at the upper end of the range, that's still only around half of the volume noted in February. 

As such the domino effect of all this will continue to be felt by the global market with elevated and volatile prices. But that hit is nowhere near the three-figure levels seen at the height of the conflict in March and April. 

Using Brent as a benchmark as the time of The Oilholic posting this blog - oil futures are trading down 0.6% on last week, up 6% on last month, down 3% on the past three-months but up 33% on last year, as trading on daily developments becomes the order of the day. Expect more of the same for now. 

That's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015.

Fresh US-Iran tension = higher oil prices. What's next?

Fresh tension in the Middle East, fresh exchange of fire between the US and Iran, a threat from President Donald Trump to impose a 20% charge on transits in the Strait of Hormuz (subsequently retracted), and a fresh US blockade of Iranian ports that has followed since can all only mean one thing - higher oil prices. 

Just when you thought that a normalisation of the crude market was on the horizon, Brent futures had fallen to pre-War pricing levels, and oil glut chatter resurfaced - disruption came glaring back. Versus last week, both Brent and WTI are up by double-digits. That is to be expected when a key maritime artery through which a fifth of the world's oil and LNG transit remains severely disrupted. 

When Iran initially started attacking ships and tankers transiting through the Strait of Hormuz (again) a fortnight ago for using the southern Hormuz corridor in Oman's territorial waters versus its own northern corridor, the idea was perhaps to see what the US response would be, re-assert its authority, and more generally poke Trump as it was. 

Not sure what the Iranians were expecting, other than what's since happened - a overwhelming show of force by US, a reimposition of a blockade on Iranian oil and more turmoil. The big question for the market is not where we are currently at, but rather where is this is going? 

A prolonged disruption can now only lead to one outcome - a diminished importance of the Strait of Hormuz over the medium-term with the rest of the region contemplating alternative pipeline routes, having taken a cue from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

And for the moment, we'll continue to see elevated - but not out of control - oil prices as the true cost of this latest costly miscalculation is counted. That's all for the moment folks! More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: VLCC Kelly moored at the Port of Fujairah, UAE. © Gaurav Sharma, September 2016.