That's after talks between the US and Iran broke down in Islamabad over the weekend, and global markets were greeted by President Donald Trump's announcement that the US navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
The key maritime artery has been the subject to threats of a virtual closure from Iran since hostilities began on February 28.
A fragile ceasefire agreed last Tuesday - for peace talks - holds for now, but for how long and to what effect? So, are the Iranian blockaders being blockaded by the Americans? That's what its looking like for now.
The US blockade took effect at 15:00 BST with Iran saying it would not surrender under threats, and US Vice President J.D. Vance accusing Tehran of "economic terrorism."
As the drama took another intraday turn, Brent and WTI futures again came near to touching $100 per barrel before falling back. But the physical market is leading the futures market in attracting a spot premium of $20 to $44 per barrel at key trading hubs in Asia, according to sources.
Speaking at a forum in Washington DC, US on Monday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright admitted crude oil prices will remain high and possibly keep rising until the Strait of Hormuz opens up. He added that prices will hit their peak sometime in the next few weeks before declining.
"But once the conflict ends, and energy starts flowing again, you'll start to see downward pressure. That will take some time," he said. We all await that day Sir, but right now it seems pretty elusive.
It is yours truly's belief that both equity and the energy markets jumped the gun a bit when the announcement of the ceasefire came nearly a week ago.
The vague ceasefire between US and Iran has given Tehran flimsy excuses to continue to subject maritime traffic - including a fifth of the world's crude oil - to threats.
Or, in Iran's convoluted logic, a $2 million toll per crossing. Not only is this contrary to international law, Oman - with whom Iran shares the maritime border of the Strait and wishes to share the revenue with - wants no part in it. The international community therefore needs to rally and intervene but the situation remains fragile and uncertain.
Furthermore, as the Oilholic has recently noted - a risk premium of at least $10 per barrel is going to stay baked in until the remainder of the year, even if peace were to prevail tomorrow. We are long way away from that. Meanwhile, the disconnect between the futures and physical markets, and the inflationary pressures of high oil prices will continue.
That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
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