The 'crude' day after the night before!

It's the day after the night before when the Iran War threatened to escalate even further. Instead, we ended up in a contentious ceasefire between the US and Iran, with divergent views on what it entails or doesn't. 

For Iran, the ceasefire includes the stoppage of the bombardment of Lebanon by Israel and not just its territory, but according the US and Israel that isn't the case. 

Iran implausibly claims the US has agreed to all of its demands. The US claims Iran has agreed to all its, and that victory was theirs. And apparently, the Strait of Hormuz is completely open but also not open and faces restrictions given whose word to take. Iran also wants to charge a toll for Strait of Hormuz transits in partnership with Oman, while the latter is rubbishing the idea! 

Meanwhile, Israel continues to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, and all warring parties concerned have rushed to declare victory in a war that still appears far from over. Reports of Iranian drones and Israeli missiles also continue to hit the wires. 

As the world pours over differing versions of a supposed 10-point plan for peace being discussed by the US and Iran, unable to ascertain who is or isn't fudging the list, the Oilholic's trading sources in Singapore suggest there's still severe stress in physical market. A tight tug for currently available crude oil barrels continues. 

By some accounts, that amounts to as much as a $20 per barrel premium to Brent in Asian spot markets. So, this isn't over yet and the overnight ceasefire might just be a brief stoppage between further military skirmishes interspersed with tough negotiations. That's all for the moment folks. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

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To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo: Oil production site. © Monika Wrangel / Pixabay, May 2015. 

Notes on a 'see-how-it-goes' crude market

As we enter the sixth week of the Iran War, extreme levels of volatility continue to persist in the oil futures market. As a recap, given how things stand at the time of publishing this blog, Brent is up by around 6% on the past five sessions, 20% on the month, and 80% from three months ago. 

With huge price fluctuations and swings on each social media post, insult, threat or potential morsel of de-escalation from Washington and Tehran, price modelling and guestimates are proving very difficult to work on. 

As the Oilholic said in a recent interview on the BBC, this is very much a 'see-how-it-goes' market, with a risk premium baked in even if the crisis were to end tomorrow, and one marked by severe oil shipping 'deliverability issues' caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. 

Here's more on those deliverability issues in yours truly's latest op-ed for Forbes and why WTI futures traded at a premium to Brent last week. The Brent-WTI spread turned on its head on Thursday (April 2) with the global benchmark Brent trading at a discount to its US counterpart for the first time in four years and only the fifth such instance since 2010, as Asian buyers queued up to pay a premium for non-Middle Eastern crude, with a sizeable volume of it coming from the states. 

Overall, the economic pain of all this volatility is being acutely felt in emerging Asian markets, particularly reliant on Middle Eastern crude. 

We have tales of four-day working weeks being introduced from Pakistan to the Philippines, several Asian air carriers (e.g. AirAsia, Cathay Pacific, Korean Air, Air India, etc.) raising passenger surcharges and fuel buying restrictions in various markets. 

All of this is coming to Europe pretty soon if this continues, and perhaps in some ways already has if consumer sentiment surveys are anything to go by. As for a potential end of the conflict coming sometime soon with a fresh threat / deadline from US President Donald Trump - this blogger would say that a six-week conclusion from Feb 28 has been widely discussed around the market for some time now. 

It's the time it would take for West African or American crude cargoes to arrive in Asia (double of what it typically takes a Middle Eastern tanker to get to Singapore) to relieve short-term pressures. Can it happen? Will it happen? Iran and the US may be far apart but the channels of communication are certainly open. 

On the latest escalation and de-escalation with Tuesday's deadline from Trump both WTI and Brent are down by around 2% to 5% at 22:48 pm BST, with WTI's premium still intact. So, the only thing to (still) say here is - we'll see how it goes.

That's all for the moment folks in these crazy times for the crude market. More market musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'! 

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Energy Connects click here.

To email: journalist_gsharma@yahoo.co.uk  

© Gaurav Sharma 2026. Photo I: Oil pump jack building blocks model at the AVEVA World 2023 Conference, Moscone Center, San Francisco, US © Gaurav Sharma, October 2023. Photo II: Gaurav Sharma, Energy Analyst at Oilholics Synonymous © BBC, March 2026.