Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Tuesday, December 07, 2021
The 23rd World Petroleum Congress (WPC) – widely regarded as the oil and gas industry's most prestigious and high profile global event – returned to Houston, Texas, US this week. It's taking place from December 5-9, 2021. Often described as the "Olympics" of the energy business, the World Petroleum Congress has been held since 1933 when London hosted its first round.
From 1991 onward, the event has gone on to be held every three years. After a COVID-19 enforced delay in 2020, which pushed the event forward by a year to December 2021, Houston hosted the event for a second time, having previously hosted the 12th WPC in 1987. This blogger is privileged to be here and delighted to bring you some glimpses of this prestigious event.
|The 23rd World Petroleum Congress (23 WPC) floor in Houston, Texas, US|
|Exhibition floor of the 23 WPC|
|ExxonMobil's stand at the 23 WPC exhibition|
|NASA's Space Exploration Vehicle on display at the 23 WPC|
|Sonya Savage, Minister of Energy of Alberta, Canada (left) calls for an honest conversation on the need for oil & gas as the world transitions to a low carbon economy|
|Boston Dynamics' RoboDog 'Spot' vows visitors at the 23 WPC|
|It is all about keeping the youth interested & having viable STEM pathways to avert a talent gap crisis in the oil & gas business, as deliberated by this panel|
|Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser (right) visits the 23 WPC exhibition floor|
Tuesday, November 23, 2021
As we embark on a post-COVID journey, it is heartening to note that energy, industry and manufacturing events are gradually returning to the physical format with all of us having had enough of endless Zoom conferences in lockdown. One such signature fixture that's back with a bang is the Global Manufacturing and Industrialisation Summit (GMIS), established in 2015, to further dialogues on the Fourth Industrial Revolution’s transformative potential.
A joint initiative between United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology of the United Arab Emirates, GMIS 2021 has returned to the physical format from November 22 to 27, 2021 in Dubai alongside the Dubai Expo 2020. Here are some glimpses of the ongoing event:
|Dubai Exhibition Centre where GMIS & Expo 2020 are being held|
|'Make it in the Emirates' & GMIS2021 going hand in hand|
|US Climate Envoy John Kerry (right) & ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber get the lowdown on RoboRace car at GMIS2021|
|CEO of Mubadala Khaldoon Al Mubarak tells US journalist John Defterios that the UAE is going big on AI investment|
|Vision of making Dubai a solar powered City|
Friday, April 02, 2021
Thursday, December 31, 2020
However, as a new trading year beckons, it is best cut out the din, and trade both the direction of the oil market as well as energy stocks with a level head. First off, all the doomsday oil demand decline scenarios from earlier in the year, of as much as 20 million barrels per day (bpd) on 2019 levels, simply did not materialise.
The actual figure is likely to be shy of 9 million bpd, which, while wiping out nearly a decade's worth of demand growth on an annualised basis, is nowhere near as catastrophic. Economic signals point to a rebound in post-pandemic demand when human mobility, consumption and core economic activity, especially in East Asia and the Indian subcontinent begin a rapid bounce back in 2021.
So what of the oil price? Using Brent as a benchmark, the Oilholic envisages a short-lived bounce to $60 per barrel before/by the midway point of the year, and on the slightest nudge that civil aviation is limping back to normal. However, yours truly firmly believes it won't last.
That's because the uptick would create a crude producers' pile-on regardless of what OPEC+ does or doesn't. Say what people might, US shale isn't dead and there remains a competitive market for American crude, especially light sweet crude, that will perk up in 2021.
Other non-OPEC producers will continue to up production on firmer oil prices as well. And finally, a Joe Biden White House would bring incremental Iranian barrels into play even if the return of the Islamic Republic's barrels is more likely to be a trickle rather than a waterfall. All of the above factors will combine to create a sub-$60/bbl median for the demand recovery year that 2021 will be. And the said price range of $50-60 will be just fine for many producers.
As for energy stocks, who can escape the battering they took in 2020. By the Oilholic's calculations, valuations on average fell by 35% on an annualised basis, and nearly 50% for some big names in the industry.
However, based on fundamentals, where the oil price is likely to average in 2021 (~base case $55/bbl), portfolio optimisation and an uptick in demand, yours truly expects at least a third of that valuation decline to be clawed back over the next 12 months. And depending on how China and India perform, we could see a 15-20% uptick.
Of course, not all energy stocks will shine equally, and the Oilholic isn't offering investment advice. But if asked to pick out of the 'crude' lot – the horses yours truly would back in 2021 would be BP and Chevron. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'! Here's to 2021!