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Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Oil market fundamentals return with aplomb
Monday, June 23, 2025
Crudely heading down uncharted 'dire straits'?
The Americans dropped 14 “bunker buster” bombs against three nuclear facilities in Iran - Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. The move came just over a week on from Israel's own campaign of attacks on Iran's nuclear and military targets began. Inevitably, Iran responded with retaliatory missile strikes of its own on Israel.
But the latest escalation by the US takes the oil market into uncharted waters (or straits shall we say). Early on in Israel's campaign, many assumed Iran's oil and gas infrastructure would not be attacked. However, that myth was shattered after Israel attacked Shahran Oil Terminal in Tehran, and two natural gas fields that Iran shares with Qatar.
It hinted at the possibility that the Israelis were in no mood to compromise. Thereafter, oil futures capped the $75 mark, and lurked some 20% above last month's levels using Brent as a benchmark.
Unsurprisingly, old market chatter that Iran would somehow close or attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz has resurfaced, as yours truly discussed in an interview with Germany's ARD Radio 1 on Tuesday while out in the Middle East.
The Oilholic also discussed the direction of the market with Turkiye's Anadolu News Agency noting that if the crisis persists and / or worsens, crude price points will have to recalibrate to a new normal around $80 per barrel Brent prices. However, if tensions or the conflict are quickly diffused, we could see a drop to $70 or below, as and when more normalized market fundamentals kick in once again.
The Oilholic also subsequently said in a BBC interview on Friday that the very fact we happen to be discussing oil breaching a $80 ceiling and not a $100 one is because the market remains well supplied ahead of the US summer driving season.It's also a perception helped in no small part by the Saudis via OPEC+ and a decision by the producers' group to raise production for three successive months.
Friday, June 20, 2025
Media missives from Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit
- Embed Sustainability And Resilience Into Infrastructure, Experts Say, June 18, 2025
- Where Do Sustainability And Affordability Sit In The Pursuit Of Smart Cities?, June 20, 2025
Thursday, June 19, 2025
Striving for smart, sustainable cities & urban excellence
On Wednesday, the second and final day of the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, over 4,000 attendees visited the exhibition and conference.
They included royalty as the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan joined the crowds. He met exhibitors, officials and visitors alike during his visit.
The Crown Prince also stressed on the vital importance of leveraging advanced technologies in urban planning to ensure the long-term sustainability of infrastructure that meets the aspirations of current and future generations and enhances societal wellbeing, by investing in integrated, future-ready infrastructure, including facilities powered by artificial intelligence and other smart solutions.
Of course, the pursuit of urban excellence is a moving target with diverse global contexts. Abu Dhabi’s ambition to redefine urban living through world-class infrastructure and quality of life enhancements finds resonance in the transformative strategies of pioneering global cities.
That was the subject matter of the second panel at the summit moderated by The Oilholic at ADIS. The panelists included Daniel Liu, Executive Director of MORROW Intelligence, Emre Arolat, Founding Partner and Principal at Emre Arolat Architecture, Greg Bargull, Executive Director of Development at Modon and Asma Aljassmi, Executive Director of Projects Control and Operations at Aldar Projects.We discussed how successful urban centers worldwide are redefining city planning through context-specific innovations that balance economic growth with human-centric design.
From Singapore’s holistic balance of economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social inclusivity to Chongqing’s technology and sustainability integration, Copenhagen’s Nordhavn district’s 5-Minute City model, and Abu Dhabi’s Masdar City balancing sustainability, heritage and innovation - the world’s most innovative cities promote a strong sense of place and identity for their residents and community said the panelists.
They also offered pragmatic insights on the challenges and opportunities along the route toward urban excellence, and learning as much from the mistakes of others as their successes, whilst keeping sustainability and energy efficiency almost always in sharp focus.
And on that note, it's a wrap from the inaugural ADIS folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Discussing collaboration on infrastructural resilience
Formal proceedings got underway at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit on Tuesday. The inaugural edition of the event combined a conference programme and exhibition featuring keynotes, panels and roundtables spread over two days.
Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid, Director General of Abu Dhabi Projects and Infrastructure Centre (ADPIC) - the mandated agency that manages government capital projects in the Emirate, alongside overseeing infrastructure project implementation and delivery - kicked things off with a keynote emphasising the need for strategic investment in infrastructure, and flagging the drive Abu Dhabi itself has embarked upon with the Emirate’s AED 200 billion (£41 billion, $54 billion) infrastructure pipeline, and 600-plus projects.
What that level of investment and ambition has done is put Abu Dhabi prominently on the map for global infrastructure collaboration. It also reflects a strategic alignment of regional priorities and international best practices.
As the Emirate accelerates the adoption of its Economic Vision 2030, cross-sector partnerships will be critical for fostering inclusive growth and address complex urban challenges including sustainable housing and smart mobility.Much of this came into sharp focus as the day progressed with plenty of chatter on how the world's major urban centres were approaching the challenge of infrastructural resilience, including via deploying public private partnerships (PPPs) to mixed degrees of success.
Here's the Oilholic's report for Forbes from the event on the subject.
For its part, Abu Dhabi’s infrastructure strategy centers on securing supply chains, enhancing climate resilience, establishing conformity standards and quality control, and fortifying digital connectivity, which it appears to be doing perhaps way better than most.
Yours truly also partook in the first day's proceedings and moderated a session on global collaboration to bring about transformative infrastructural development.
The panelists included Carlos Wakim, CEO of Bloom Holding, Mounir Haidar, Managing Partner of LEAD Development, Fuat Kasimcan, Secretary General of Turkish Contractors Association, and Abdulaziz Alobaidli, Chief Operating Officer of Masdar. Over the course of an insightful discussion, we discussed how Abu Dhabi was offering several case studies for the world's major cities to take their cue from, and the role, advantages and pitfalls of PPPs in the region, and beyond.We also discussed what role technology, especially AI, can play in solutions for smart cities, alongside the criticality of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in multiple geographies to foster collaboration, as well as the need for grid resilience to ensure the power demands of burgeoning urban centres are serviced without outages. All-in-all, a great discussion.
Once the first day's proceedings had concluded, invited delegates headed over the event's Gala Dinner in the evening, attended by distinguished guests from around the world who were welcomed to the summit, the dinner and indeed to Abu Dhabi once again by ADPIC Director General Maysarah Mahmoud Salim Eid.The ADPIC DG also commended the strength of the dialogues at the event and the global mix of the attendees on the first day before the evening's entertainment and festivities commenced.
Well that's all for the moment folks ahead of a content packed second day at ADIS! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Getting going at Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit
The summit - being held from June 17 to 18 at the city's Energy Centre - is expected to draw in over 2,000 attendees from nearly 100 countries, 25 major exhibitors and over 70 global speakers (present company included). The theme for this year's event is "Future cities: Rethinking infrastructure for better lifestyles."
In line with that theme, over the next two days yours truly will take part in the programme that includes leading voices from the world of renewable energy, real estate development and design, aviation, architecture and urban planning, alongside proponents of AI and emerging technologies.
The whole idea is to bring together government entities, semi-government bodies, developers, investors, contractors, technology providers, academia, and global associations, in order to facilitate what the organisers describe as meaningful collaboration across the entire infrastructure ecosystem.
Looking forward to an exciting and insightful few days in Abu Dhabi. More musings to follow soon folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Monday, June 16, 2025
A crude view from Abu Dhabi as oil price spike cools
As the Oilholic hopped across from Doha to Abu Dhabi on Monday it became evident that a further (read dramatic) spike in oil prices was not going to materialize.
It was helped in no small part by a report in the Wall Street Journal claiming that the Iranians - battered by precision Israeli bombing that began on Friday - were keen to get back to the negotiating table to end hostilities and resume discussions over their nuclear program.
It meant the Brent futures rally slowed quite significantly with the global proxy benchmark sliding below $75 per barrel instead of heading toward $80-levels. The report was met with some scepticism but it needn't have been.
In fact, informed sources both in Qatar as well as the UAE tell yours truly that Tehran is asking its Arab intermediaries to broker a cooling down of the daily barrage of attacks with much more fervor than the story suggests, provided the US doesn't join Israel in its campaign against Iran.
Traders took the cue from that, much to the consternation of market bulls. That's because were market sentiment to switch from "Israel is now attacking Iran's oil facilities" back to the negotiating table, normal market fundamentals would start applying, and that would mean even $70 levels would not be worth holding on to.
More musings to follow soon folks. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Sunday, June 15, 2025
State of play ahead of heading out to the Middle East
Wednesday, June 11, 2025
Speaking at Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit
Delighted to announce that yours truly will be speaking and moderating panels at the Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit. The theme for the event - due to be held in Abu Dhabi, UAE from June 17 to 18, 2025 - is "Future cities: Rethinking infrastructure for better lifestyles." Explore the event's wide-ranging agenda here.
ADIS' inaugural edition combines a conference and exhibition featuring keynotes, panels, and round tables with global senior leaders from the infrastructure and construction sector.
Topics will emphasise advancing construction and infrastructure innovations, driving technological excellence, facilitating partnerships, and redefining urban landscapes to shape the cities of the future sustainably. For more information on yours truly's panels click here, and to register to attend click here.
The Oilholic is really looking forward to the deliberations, meeting thought leaders and friends. Join, if you can, for some fantastic industry exchanges and networking in Abu Dhabi. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!Bringing 'superintelligence' to the energy industry
The Oilholic was delighted to join the demo day of UK-based energy AI firm Applied Computing in London on Tuesday.
The firm recently announced a £9 million seed funding round - largest ever for a British AI company's at seed stage - to bring what it describes as "superintelligence" to the energy industry.
Applied Computing’s flagship product - Orbital - has been built using multi-foundation AI powered by a new class of models built to optimise the physical world. The company's CEO and co-founder Callum Adamson said this was not just language models his team was talking about but also time series, physics and chemical engineering models delivering explainable AI that can be trusted in real-world applications.
Applied Computing claims Orbital utilises "100% of available data from downstream energy facilities" – compared to 8% captured by traditional methods – and is outperforming previously benchmarked state-of-the-art software by 90% in key metrics.
The company offered the attendees, present company included, a demo of Orbital in action. It appears to be going places in its bid to bring AI to the oil and gas sector, which, as Adamson noted, is the most "under-optimised industry on earth."
Applied Computing sees opportunities across the sector's value chain from refining and petrochemicals to upstream and LNG, although its current focus is on downstream.
The £9 million seed round has been followed up by strategic hires from Shell, Palantir, BP Launchpad and Imperial College. Applied Computing has doubled in size since January and is now preparing for a Series A in the second half of the year.Ahead of the demo, The Oilholic - as announced to the readers of this blog earlier this month - also moderated an industry panel discussion titled - Redesigning Energy: New Technologies Powering the Transition.
The panel explored the critical role of technologies such as the ones Applied Computing and its peers are marketing, as well as their potential to help reshape the future of energy, industry, and sustainability.
The all star cast of speakers included leading voices from across the world of energy, venture capital, and AI innovation to explore the insights, strategies, and technologies reshaping the energy landscape.
They included Kari Jordan, Founder of Leaps and Bounds, Ulrika Wising, Senior Energy Executive (a former Centrica, Shell & Macquarie executive), Eliza Eddison, Vice President of Operations at Applied Computing, and Fred Destin, Founder of Stride.VC, all of whom provided many invaluable insights that made for a riveting hour-long session.
Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Tuesday, June 10, 2025
OPEC+, uptick in crude prices & more
For crude traders, the month of June began exactly the way May did - with another 411,000 bpd production hike by OPEC+.
The move was almost entirely priced in by the global market. And if anything else, prices actually rose a bit to clawback the ground lost in the wake of the Trump Tariffs kerfuffle in April.
Overall, the crude price - using Brent as a benchmark - is still down by double digits on last year.
Of course, there are different opinions out there in the market, but respectfully the Oilholic sees little reason to be overtly bullish on oil prices as things stand.
Here's yours truly's Forbes post on OPEC's move and its wider implications with another hike - most likely - coming in for August from the producers' group.
All things considered, with the hedges of US shale players not rolling off for another six months in many cases (and as high as 18 months in the case of some), this blogger expects the market in 2025 to be in surplus.
Furthermore, as The Oilholic noted in an interview with Asharq Bloomberg Business News last week, this isn't just about OPEC+ versus US shale production.This then does beg the age-old question (again) - what about investment in oil and gas in the current market and macroeconomic climate? We're in retreat from the Covid-years of frowning upon oil and gas investments to somewhat of a panic on the need for it to ensure security of supply in the energy transition era.
According to the IEF, around $740 billion a year is needed in investments to the end of the current decade assuming a global demand figure north of 100 million bpd. But in 2024, we didn't even cap $600 billion worth of oil and gas investments. So is the industry investing enough? It's what yours truly asked in his latest Energy Connects column (available here).
Well that's all for the moment folks! More musings to follow soon. Keep reading, keep it here, keep it 'crude'!
Monday, June 02, 2025
Moderating panel at Applied Computing's Orbital demo
Delighted to announce that yours truly will be joining Applied Computing's Demo Day proceedings on June 10, 2025 at IET London Savoy Place in London, UK. The Oilholic will also be moderating the panel discussion titled - Redesigning Energy: New Technologies Powering the Transition - where we'll explore the critical role of technologies and their potential to help reshape the future of energy, industry, and sustainability.
The session will bring together leading voices from across the world of energy, venture capital, and AI innovation to explore the insights, strategies, and technologies reshaping the energy landscape, including Kari Jordan, Founder, Leaps and Bounds, Ulrika Wising, Senior Energy Executive (Former Centrica, Shell & Macquarie), Eliza Eddison, Vice President of Operations at Applied Computing, and Fred Destin, Founder of Stride.VC
If you’d like to attend the panel discussion or Applied Computing's full Demo Day, kindly register here.
Really looking forward to the proceedings and discussions, meeting the Applied Computing tech team and friends from the wider energy industry.