End of 'voluntary' Saudi cuts, no Covid-19 end in sight

In the lead up to the OPEC+ summit on June 6, oil benchmarks continued to rise toward $40 per barrel and subsequently went beyond. Brent even capped $42 levels briefly as OPEC+ decided to predictably rollover ongoing crude production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) - scheduled to end on July 1 - by another month. 

All of it was accompanied by the common din of crude oil demand returning, underpinned by hopes of China reverting to its average importation rate of around 14 million bpd by end-2020. Such an assumption is fanciful in the Oilholic’s humble opinion, as a semblance of normalcy, especially in the aviation sector, is unlikely before Q1 2021. But even that assumption was further punctured by Saudi Arabia withdrawing its additional 'voluntary' cuts of 1 million bpd in June, atop what they were already cutting as part of the OPEC+ agreement. 

To quote Saudi Oil Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman: "The voluntary cut has served its purpose and we are moving on. A good chunk of what we will increase in July will go into domestic consumption."

Be that as it may be, that's bearish joy for those with short positions who can now also count on rising sentiment in favour of a second wave of the Coronavirus or Covid-19 hammering crude oil demand, with rising cases in the U.S. and as well as a fresh outbreak in China. So, oil futures have duly retreated from $40 levels.

However, here's what this blogger doesn't get – how can it be all about a possible second wave, when the initial pandemic is far from over! Just look at the official and anecdotal data coming out of India and Brazil. 

And while European pandemic hotspots might be cooling down, the initial threat is far from over. A crude market recovery remains a long, long way off. The Oilholic reckons it will be Q1 2021 before we get into a proper recovery mode and can think of a nuanced reversal in market fortunes. By that argument near-term volatility is likely be in $30-40 range, unless Covid-19 situation escalates. To assume the only way is up from $40 is pretty daft. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it crude!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Rigzone click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2020. Image by Omni Matryx from Pixabay. 

The oil price rally that wasn’t

We were led to believe that a $100 per barrel oil price was not a case of "if" but "when." Over April, and early on in May both Brent and WTI futures continued their upticks, primarily driven by hedge funds piling into the front end of the futures curve, and OPEC hinting at extending its production cut agreement.

Even six-month dated Brent contract's backwardation streak started to narrow, though it ultimately stayed in backwardation mode, as the Oilholic noted in a recent broadcast. And then it happened – information came out that the Saudis and Russians were no longer keen on extending the existing OPEC/non-OPEC production cut agreement, that has seen 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) taken out of the global supply pool by 14 OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers. 

Furthermore, if a Reuters exclusive is to be believed, the US demanded that OPEC production be raised by 1 million bpd. The same story also claimed that President Donald Trump's unilateral slapping of sanctions on Iran only came after the Saudis allegedly promised to raise their output. 

Sidestepping all of this, the Oilholic has always maintained that the barrels OPEC and non-OPEC producers took out of the market to – in their words "balance the market" – had to return to the global supply pool at some point. That was the real "when not if" situation for the market.  

As market sentiment on that happening has gained traction, the predictable result is a visible correction in the futures market with OPEC set to meet on 22 June. Meanwhile, the $100 price remains a pipedream, with both benchmarks still oscillating in a very predictable $60-80 range, only occasionally flattering to deceive with bullish overtones only to slide backwards (see graph above, click to enlarge). 

Away from the crude price, here are one's Forbes posts on US oil producers maintaining their efficiencies drive despite relatively higher oil prices and the UK-France Channel Tunnel operator's latest sustainability initiative of using ozone friendly refrigerants for cooling it landmark tunnel. 

Finally, it's a pleasure to have the Oilholic mentioned and recognised by third parties. These include Feedspot who recently featured this blog in their ‘Top 60 oil and gas blogs to follow’ section. It comes after industry data provider Drillinginfo flagged this blog in its roundup of '10 great oil & gas blogs to follow', as did penny stocks expert Peter Leeds, and US-based Delphian Ballistics. A big thank you to all of the aforementioned. That's all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

To follow The Oilholic on Twitter click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Google+ click here.

To follow The Oilholic on Forbes click here.

To email: gaurav.sharma@oilholicssynonymous.com

© Gaurav Sharma 2018. Graph: Friday closes of oil prices year to 8 June 2018 © Gaurav Sharma 2018.