Showing posts with label NOCs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NOCs. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

On oil price direction and EMF 2019

The Oilholic returned overnight from a visit to Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, for the 9th Gulf Intelligence Energy Markets Forum; the burgeoning shipping and storage port's annual gathering of industry minds. 

And on everyone's mind - unsurprisingly - was the direction of the oil price. This blogger has maintained the market is stuck in the modest middle, given that even 58% of Saudi capacity being temporarily knocked offline last month was not enough to keep Brent futures above $70 per barrel for a sustained period of time. 

Demand concerns have returned with a vengeance to temper risk driven upticks. The Oilholic remains in the $65 per barrel Brent average bracket. But majority of the delegates to the Forum were even more bearish for the quarter, based on the findings of an instant poll conducted at Gulf Intelligence's behest by yours truly (see image top left, click to enlarge). Many are bracing for a Q4 2019 Brent price in the range of $60-$65 per barrel. 


As part of the proceedings, one also got a chance to interview Mele Kyari, Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), both to discuss the spot poll's findings, as well as how Nigeria views the current market dynamic. 

Kyari stressed that Nigeria expects global demand to continue at pace driven by petrochemicals and aviation fuel. Tied into that is of course NNPC's own, and much-needed push to both invest, as well as court investment in its downstream sector. 

And away from the main auditorium, were several informative industry roundtables. Fujairah itself is undergoing significant changes in light of current geopolitics, inward investment, and the likes of ADNOC and Saudi Aramco mulling trading and storage outposts there. Will be penning thoughts on that subject for Forbes and Rigzone shortly, but that's all from Fujairah for the moment folks. Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

Addendum I - 06.10.19: Thoughts via Forbes - ADNOC Gets Serious About Its Oil Exports Bypassing Strait Of Hormuz Via Fujairah, here.
  
Addendum II - 07.10.19: And via Rigzone - Oil Hub of Fujairah Thriving Amid Rising Geopolitical Risk, here.

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© Gaurav Sharma 2019. Chart 1: Findings of oil price direction survey at Energy Markets Forum in Fujairah, Oct 1, 2019 © Gulf Intelligence. Photos 1 & 2: Gaurav Sharma interviews Mele Kyari, Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) © Photo 1 - Samantha Morris, © Photo 2 - Gulf Intelligence, October 1, 2019.

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

‘Petroleum Club’, policy choices & ‘crude’ control

Several nations are about to join the ‘Petroleum Club’ of crude oil producers where they’ll rub shoulders with well established patrons of the hydrocarbon exporters' fraternity.

The policymaking choices they face today could have a massive bearing on the future direction of their economies and overall management of national oil wealth. Every national market’s direction is ultimately shaped by the level of control its government wishes to have over domestic exploration and production.

Some do not have a national oil company (NOC), yet others give most of the decision-making and clout to a state entity. Factoring in developments and case studies till date, academic Bianca Sarbu delves into the key issue of state influence in her book Ownership and Control of Oil published by Routledge.

The author discusses different decisions taken by governments, subsequent outcomes, emerging themes and industry trends in their wake. In a book of just under 200 pages, split into six detailed chapters, Sarbu substantiates her arguments by pulling in case studies – both recent and historic – and puts forward conclusions confronting theoretical explanations.

The text is peppered with figures, tables and charts lending veracity to Sarbu’s scrutiny of government decisions in key oil producing countries. Her painstaking analysis of upstream policies on a pan-global level helps the readers compare and contrast what’s afoot, where, and why.

An entire chapter is dedicated to profiling Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi based on Sarbu’s in-depth research and direct interviews with over 30 energy experts on both countries. Holistic examination of NOCs’ role in oil production since the nationalisations of the 1970s from sheikdoms to democracies, leads the author to some interesting conclusions.

Sarbu opines that technical expertise of the NOC plays an important role in “explaining upstream policy choices,” especially when limits on the executive are low and “ruling elites are more likely to take economically rational decisions.”

From first impression to midway scrutiny, all the way up to ultimate conclusion, Sarbu’s treatment of the subject at hand is solid. Its an invaluable contribution towards wider understanding and contextualisation of policy frameworks within emerging and established oil producing countries and the impact they have had or are likely to have for better or worse.

The Oilholic would be happy to recommend this title primarily to industry consultants. That said policymakers, oil and gas sector professionals in general, as well as students of petroleum economics and the Middle East would appreciate it in near equal measure.

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© Gaurav Sharma 2014. Photo: Front Cover – Ownership and Control of Oil © Routledge, May 2014.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

An ‘Atlas’ of e-learning for a contact sport

The Oilholic has had the pleasure of visiting quite a few E&P facilities over the years from offshore rigs to onshore gas fields. Going back roughly a decade, it wasn't uncommon [and still isn't] to see roughnecks in hard hats being given instructions ranging from operational to health and safety by a superior.

The mode of communication usually involved barking verbal instructions in highly colourful language with bulky printed training manuals on-hand containing everything from evacuation routes to rules and regulations. All of this has changed and rather dramatically, if one may add. What started as a slow, but sure, transformation at the turn of the millennium came in the form of former roughnecks and rig engineers imparting their wisdom for the benefit of budding on-site professionals via training courses using the electronic medium.
 
By 2006-07, e-learning provided by specialist providers had gained considerable traction in what is largely a contact sport. Among the stalwarts, in this relatively young but highly competitive market, is a part private equity-owned, part employee-owned educator headquartered in Aberdeen, Scotland called Atlas.
 
The firm came on the Oilholic's radar back in 2011 at the 20th World Petroleum Congress in Doha.  A further look into Atlas, at the suggestion of a banking sector contact, revealed a client portfolio of some of the biggest names in the business for a company which is less than 20 years old. IOCs aside, strikingly enough, this blogger found that a number of NOCs had also availed Atlas' service to give their workforces – as the educator's motto states – the "knowledge to perform."
 
For the sake of a crude analogy, the Oilholic quipped to Kevin Short, Director of Sales at Atlas, if they'd in fact become the Rosetta Stone of the oil & gas business. "I don’t think it is that simple, although our e-learning courses and industry solutions are indeed multi-linguistic," he laughs.
 
For Short, it's more about creating, marketing and selling virtual learning solutions aimed at "improving efficiencies while minimising operational and legislative risk". This could range from e-training courses for employees moving dangerous goods by air to a simple training solution for evacuating an E&P facility.
 
"There are industry standard courses available from our library; but more often than not, you'll find clients ordering bespoke solutions or an altered version of an existing training solution to suit their specific needs," Short explains.
 
There is no mystique about what Atlas provides and the company continues to record double-digit growth on an annualised basis, much to the delight of its PE owners [HG Capital] one assumes. Peer-to-peer contact and reviews have certainly been of immense help in achieving this – both in terms of retaining clients and bagging new ones. Over the years, Atlas has expanded to Dubai, Kuala Lumpur and Houston.
 
Understandably, the firm keeps abreast of new emerging techniques in the E&P sector, unconventional prospection activity and allied health and safety issues to come-up with e-learning options for clients.
 
However, the Oilholic put one caveat to Short – pros from Aberdeen who have gained expertise for better parts of four decades, especially on the health and safety front in wake of the Piper Alpha tragedy (1988), are also on the educating circuit from Dubai to Calgary and in great demand. So is Atlas toughing it out with them too?
 
"In a sense, perhaps yes. But in terms of the broader picture no! That's because we also work with some of these professionals a lot of the time and hire them as what we call 'Subject Matter Experts' to work on fresh concepts for courses and bespoke solutions for clients. What's good for them is good for Atlas and by default good for the commissioning client."
 
When it comes to fishing these guys out – networking, events, headhunting those with industry reputation and project-based demand all play a part. Such expertise has helped the company put together its patented Atlas Knowledge Centre – a 3,000 page grab of all of the company's core content. Akin to a virtual oil & gas knowledge encyclopaedia, it is made available to subscribers serving as a "refresher" or instant help-guide to learners.
 
But what about converting new clients around the e-learning viewpoint? Short says competency is key here. "We can help companies by ensuring that their recruits not only just sit the course but based on the information that's been given to them, they become competent to handle the tasks at hand. It is not just about providing reading and reference material but rather ensuring that the candidate is learning."
 
Atlas also has an advisory board to help it test run pilot courses and provide constant feedback. Last time the Oilholic checked, there were around 53 companies on board for such an exercise. Finally, the company is also rather careful in being shall we say 'electronic platform neutral'.
 
"If a client wants an e-learning solution to work on a BlackBerry we wouldn't urge them to adopt an Android OS system, or Apple OS. Ultimately, that's their call. We have a young team here who will tailor a course to the clients' IT requirements and subsequently licence it to them, rather than it being the other way around." A wise line to take indeed! That’s all for the moment folks! Keep reading, keep it 'crude'!

NOTE: November 1, 2013 - To read this blogger's interview with Atlas CFO Graeme Park for CFO World click here.
 
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© Gaurav Sharma 2013. Photo: Atlas HQ, Energy Park, Aberdeen, Scotland © Gaurav Sharma, October 2013.